Lacrosse Reference

Based on the early entries, this looks like the most contentious pod so far in the #LRBracketChallenge

Get your picks in today!

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Think you can beat the record? The fastest person to complete their MLAX bracket was ~30 seconds. Start to post. pro.lacrossereference.com/ncaa-lacross...

Here's the DIII MLAX bubble.

After each simulation run (through the end of the conference tournaments), I counted up the number of times that every team was either last-2-in or first-2-out. These are the teams that (assuming they don't win their AQ) could go either way.

Also, happy to answer any questions about how NPI works. This exercise of replicating it has (I think) given me a pretty good sense for the nuances. Obviously we'll all get smarter as the games are played and the NPI implications play out.

That said, I will keep an eye on this when the next release comes out, just to be certain that I'm matching the official ranking. Consider this is beta-version.

The mechanism to calculate NPI is a bit complicated, but the formula itself it pretty straightforward. My understanding is that a real-time NPI was produced for college basketball with no issues.

Obviously, since games have been played since Sunday, this is not going to match the current NCAA NPI report. I validated that the calculations produced the same ranking ignoring the games that have been played since Sunday.

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For my DIII friends, I've got the Realtime NPI rankings up and running. These are being updated every 15 minutes, so it should be more or less up-to-date as games to go final.

lacrossereference.com/npi-d3-men/

Wild weekend. Here's where the computer rankings for DI MLAX settled. Ohio State is your #1 is your #1 team in the nation followed by Cornell. Terps fall to 3rd and Cuse is up to 4th after the win over ND. Army at No. 7. This stretch run is going to be wild.

Maybe discount the Iona result, but there were 3, maybe 4, important results yesterday. Does Cuse get the nod or is it OSU over Hop?

We have our first lock of the DI MLAX season. After their 12-6 in over UVA, Maryland did not miss the NCAA field in any of the 3,000 simulations that ran overnight.

Ok, the DII MLAX simulator is out of the shop. It's been updated to

✅ Reflects 9 AQs + 7 at-larges
✅ Appropriately limits the field to 8 teams per region
✅ Simulates the random PBC/RMAC uber-title game

Here's how the current projections look

Always kind of a sad day to realize that there are still teams who have not played a game and probably canceled their season. Here are the DIII MLAX no-shows that I'm looking at

Keystone
Mount St. Joseph
Northwestern St. Paul
Concordia Chicago
Morrisville
Mitchell
Elms
Elmira
NVU-Lyndon

This seems right. So far, the simulations and the results are pointing towards a higher parity season than we've had in a while.

Definitely Ohio State over ND. It looks like there are 4 teams now that could win the B1G if they get hot at the end of the year.

With the DI MLAX weekend in the books, here's the current LR Computer Rankings

Moving Up: Ohio State, Harvard, Princeton, Penn State
In: UMass, Boston U, Saint Joseph's
Moving Down: North Carolina, Delaware, Johns Hopkins, Notre Dame
Out: Navy, Denver, Penn

Here's an early look at how the simulator sees the eventual NCAA field developing. At the moment, 7 leagues have a non-zero chance at multiple bids

Here's where the 2.0 computer rankings finished the weekend

On Friday morning, Princeton MLAX was at 11th in the computer ranking. As of this moment, they would be 3rd.

Henry Dodge is currently the highest-rated faceoff specialist in all of DI MLAX.

Very fun WP chart from Marist this weekend.

This is part (but not all of) the reason that the Computer Rankings have Cornell 15th while the media polls have them so much higher.

(From today's newsletter)

#ExpectedGoals_D1M

With all the DI MLAX games in the books, the Computer Rankings (2.0) have

🔹the Terps in the top spot after their big win up at Cuse
🔹Richmond into the top-10 after their win over UVA and
🔹Sacred Heart cracking the Top-20

A tweak has been made...

Which win spoke the loudest?

Which win spoke the loudest?

Which win spoke the loudest?

Which win spoke the loudest?