Jan Klosowski

We start to see how $MSTR tickers work in practice: $STRD is getting hammered right now. The potential dividend is 15% but they're not obligated to pay it. If they skip payments, you don't get them back. If market bounce, potential gains are +35%, and effective 15% dividend.

Interesting: The mNAV is still above 1.2, so you pay a 20% premium for $MSTR's bitcoins, but $STRK at $79.45—20% below its $100 nominal value—effectively cancels it. You get 10% yield and it converts to $MSTR at $1000. If it just returns to $100, that's 26% gain plus dividends.

The only place where value investing is still possible are smaller companies that are not included in major indices.

When company gets included into S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, etc. "price discovery" dies replaced by "price following."

janklosowski.substack.com/p/index-inv...

"Hesitation or fear at the point of entry is proof your thinking has turned short term."

The best way to not sell your Bitcoin:
Move it off exchanges.

Index Investing: When Everything is Better Than Dollars The Stock Market Became Your Savings Account, and It's a Problem

2/ "Index funds do no fundamental research, yet dominate institutional voting. Our investment system is broken." Cathie Wood

The people with the most voting power are institutionally required not to care about company performance.

substack.com/home/post/p...

1/ When $TSLA shareholders voted on Elon's $1T compensation package, among big shareholders were Vanguard, BlackRock, State Street. They don't own Tesla because they believe in it—they own it because it's 2.4% of the S&P 500. They're locked in by mandate.

SPAC, NFT, memecoin, treasury company.

All these vehicles share the same DNA:
- insiders profit even if investors lose
- retail doesn't understand mechanics
- quick capital extraction before scrutiny arrives
- the value proposition: it will go up

The US has been stockpiling "wealth" in paper & debt while China has been exchanging that USD paper for material wealth all over the world for the past 20 years, as fast as they could.

When people talk about risk and safety they rarely realize that:

Stability and safety can be provided only by someone else: government, parents, community. It's staying dependent.

To reach it on your own, you need to take risk first.

Life is volatile. Volatility is life.

During Japan's 80s housing bubble, banks introduced 100y "three-generation mortgages" at 9% interest rates.

Your grandkids would literally inherit your mortgage debt.

The bubble popped. 25 years later, property prices were still down across most of Japan.

So, you're excited about 50-year mortgages?

Sweden's average mortgage term hit 140 years in 2016 before regulators finally capped it at 105 years.

Not a typo. One hundred and forty years.

"This is very much like the bubble in synthetic asset-backed CDOs […]. Price-setting in that market was not done by fundamental […] analysis, but by massive capital flows based on Nobel-approved models of risk that proved to be untrue." Michael Burry

janklosowski.substack.com/p/index-inv...

LoL, what RPG system is it? Shadowrun?

It looks like you're an "UBI person" so I'm sure you thought a lot about it. I was a big proponent in the past. Now, I'm not enthusiastic anymore. I believe that people need incentives to do anything. It maybe unavoidable due to political reasons, but it's definitely not a silver bullet.

Maybe, but I would first increase personal allowance to national average salary: no taxes until you're in the upper half.

It's cheap, and easy to do, without removing incentives to have a job.

Example: In the UK £31.5k instead of current £12.5k.

Index funds buy big companies not because of fundamentals but because they're big. Investors frontrun companies joining funds without reading any analysis like they did twice with $MSTR. Finally, if the company joins the index, they become passive buyers.

janklosowski.substack.com/p/index-inv...

The market goes up, job offerings go down. Many provide conventional explanations: rate hikes, Section 174, etc.—but those were here before.

If an existing model can produce "black swan" results, it's useless as a model, because it makes it impossible to "model" anything.

This is an interesting read, but you compare UBI with NIT while I don't support either of them.

What I do support is a higher personal allowance, which is obviously much cheaper to implement: no money circulates, no administrative overhead, just less taxation from the start.

Passive investing is centralized. Fund issuers like Vanguard and BlackRock become proxy-shareholders with massive stakes in companies—but no real skin in the game. They invest in indices, not in businesses.

That’s how price discovery breaks down.

janklosowski.substack.com/p/index-inv...

In a world where labor input cost drops to nominal levels for goods and services, it is worth considering what replaces it. Materials and energy become the bottleneck where value accrues.

I bought #Bitcoin 4 years before MicroStrategy. Those are my credentials.

Rumi was a great poet.
x.com/klos/status...

Everybody knows that index funds are great for retail investors, but few realize they're often bad for businesses:

A business needs investors who have skin in the game, want it to win, and vote accordingly.

Index funds are shareholders that don't care about the outcome.

"But the dollar is doomed!"
Yes, eventually.
Your timeline and reality's timeline.
Reality doesn't consult your urgency.

For American millionaires:

- 21% received any inheritance at all
- 16% inherited more than $100K
- 3% received an inheritance at or above $1M

Contrary to common belief, most millionaires are self-made.

"I will start investing when I will have more money." - beginners don't understand that your most important asset in investing is TIME.

HTTP 402 "Payment Required" sat unused for over 30 years - reserved in the '90s but never implemented.

Now "the internet's oldest placeholder" is finally fulfilling its destiny.

What a time to be alive.

Do you remember the time when institutions were saying:

"Bitcoin is dead, but blockchain is the future."

Solana ETF perfectly represents this type of institutional investor.

I don't get the idea of "basic income" as long as personal income tax exists.

This is theatrically ineffective and pointless circulation of money.

Before giving people money, stop taking it in the first place.

It's simpler, cheaper, and more efficient.