@ampercival.bsky.social
aaronpercival.substack.com Director / @SSC_SPC / Public Sector Transformation Leader – Driving Change for Real Impact | Obsessed with Value, Cares Deeply, Gets Things Done #PublicSector #DigitalGovernment #ServiceDelivery #Transformation #GCDigital
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So really, standing count includes the first rise and THEN every return. I think this proverb speaks more to indomitability.
#PublicService #Leadership #Resilience
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Work feels like that too. New roles, new files, new systems: you begin low on context and high on uncertainty. You find footing through reps, colleagues, and small recoveries.
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Once you see that, the proverb shifts from resilience-as-bounce-back to resilience-as-start-up. The hardest part is often getting to “upright” the first time, with help.
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That little mismatch is the point. You don’t begin life standing. You start on the ground, and the first stand is its own win, before any falling even happens.
"Fall seven times, stand up eight."
When I first came across it, the math in this Japanese proverb bothered me: you cannot stand up more times than you fall!... or can you?
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5/
Honest baselines save future headaches.
We need to stop rewarding the best story and start rewarding the most defensible plan.
#CdnGov #PublicAdministration #Delivery
4/
We can break this cycle by changing habits.
Use real comparators rather than fresh estimates. Define "done" before approval. Make accuracy safer than optimism.
If the last three modernizations took 4 years, this one will not take 18 months.
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Then the proverbial project chickens come home to roost.
We pay for that initial approval with "delivery debt."
Teams start behind schedule, scrambling to meet impossible baselines that were never real to begin with.
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Funding competitions create a "survival of the un-fittest."
In a competitive environment, the most honest proposal often loses.
A plan grounded in reality looks expensive compared to one promising a quick, cheap win. So the fantasy gets funded.
Ever look at a project proposal and think, "There is no way we can deliver this for $15M and in 6 months"?
This is "strategic misrepresentation."
It happens when business cases drift from forecasting into selling.
I unpack this in this week's Beyond the Status Quo.
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5/
Judging decisions solely by results encourages defensibility rather than quality strategy. We need to separate the quality of the decision from the outcome.
#PublicService #Strategy #DecisionMaking
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This leads to outcome bias. We often label a risky decision "visionary" when it succeeds. Yet we label that exact same decision "flawed" when it fails. The process was identical, but we judge the result.
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This creates a dangerous illusion of understanding. Because we believe we can explain the past so clearly, we assume the future is equally map-able. We mistake our ability to rationalize history for an ability to predict what comes next.
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Our minds prioritize coherence over truth. When we review a completed project, we subconsciously strip away the luck and chaos. We construct a linear story where the result seems inevitable.
"The idea that the future is unpredictable is undermined every day by the ease with which the past is explained." Daniel Kahneman describes this as the Narrative Fallacy.
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5/
Relevant projects are likely listed there right now. If you work in a program or digital role, the list is worth a skim. You might find a precedent to learn from.
#GCDigital #GovTech #OpenData
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Polished or not, the long-term value here depends on culture. We need to make it normal for teams to register their work while it is still forming. Keeping the data current is the only way this stays relevant.
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The site notes that this is currently an MVP and further consultations are planned. It is a good reminder that perfect data is often the enemy of useful data. Getting the platform live matters more than having it polished.
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It was interesting to scan the list for my own department. Some of the initiatives were familiar, but others were a complete discovery. It highlights how much work happens in parallel streams even within the same organization.
Today I learned that the GC maintains a register of AI systems across government. I spent some time looking through it last night. It lists over 400 active or planned systems across 42 federal institutions.
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4/
Poll-by-reply (A/B/C/D): which check actually improves forecasts where you work?
A Reference class data
B Independent challenge function
C Procurement realism check (winner’s curse)
D Role split: realism in governance, optimism in delivery
#PublicService #ProjectDelivery #Transformation
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One practical fix is the outside view: forecast using outcomes from similar past projects (a reference class). It’s less exciting than a bespoke plan, and it’s usually more accurate.
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That baseline matters. Once a business case clears gates, the estimate becomes a promise, even when uncertainty is still high. The inside view feels detailed, so it tends to win.
Archive pull: a lot of “delivery problems” start as forecast problems. Optimism bias + strategic misrepresentation can harden a best-case baseline into an approved expectation. How do you counter that in government?
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5/
Finally, leadership is about creating a culture where it is safe to tell the truth about timelines. Rest up, because 2026 is going to be a challenging year. Let’s get ready to focus on value.
#publicservice #cdnpoli #govtech
4/
Delivery realism means respecting the "fat tail" risks of large tech projects. These are not standard projects. We need to acknowledge that extreme outliers are possible and govern with enough friction to catch them early.
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Stewardship requires making the business case a living tool. Too often, it becomes a graveyard for optimism. Using it as an active decision record helps us validate assumptions rather than just filing paperwork for approval.
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History tells us successful initiatives embrace "thinking slow." We must understand intent before investing sacks of cash and time in a solution. Treating outcomes like first-class work products prevents us from building efficient machines that produce the wrong results.
The 2025 retrospective is live. I looked back at 15 posts to find the common thread. It is the danger of mistaking motion for value. We often rush to show progress, but that usually guarantees a painful finish. Here is what we learned this year.
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5/
If you’re heading into a leadership transition, this is a practical checklist to ground the conversation on readiness and capacity, not personalities. Worth a read:
#CdnGov #PublicSector #Leadership