Robbie Andrew

Robbie Andrew

@robbieandrew.bsky.social

Senior scientist at Oslo-based CICERO Center for International Climate Research • 🌍Global Carbon Project • https://robbieandrew.github.io/

4,185 Followers 167 Following 3,299 Posts Joined Oct 2023
1 day ago
"High demand growth scenario assumptions by STEO region". Graph by EIA showing forecast net energy for load growth rates by region 2025-27.

The US EIA is expecting electricity demand in Texas to increase by 10%-15% between 2025 and 2027. After two decades of zero growth in electricity in the US, data centres are pushing huge change.
www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...

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1 day ago
After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted gas supplies and drove significant price increases, Dutch households and businesses rapidly moved away from natural gas.
The Dutch government moved quickly to stabilise supply. As Russian pipeline flows declined, the Netherlands rapidly expanded LNG import capacity to stabilise supply, including through floating regasification units at Eemshaven and increased throughput at Rotterdam. LNG imports allowed storage to be refilled ahead of winter, which brought down wholesale prices from their August 2022 peak, even though price volatility remained.
Gas-fired generation came under pressure. High fuel prices squeezed margins, while rapid renewables growth reduced running hours. Several operators warned that gas plants, critical for backup during low wind and solar output, were becoming uneconomic without stronger market signals. The result was a tension between decarbonisation and reliability. Even as gas demand fell, the power system remained dependent on flexible gas capacity to manage supply shocks and grid stability.
For Stedin, the regional network operator serving Rotterdam and surrounding areas, gas volumes fell by more than 25% from 2021, and gas disconnections and electrification surged. Requests for higher-capacity electricity connections rose sharply as households installed heat pumps, solar panels, and electric appliances. Electricity demand growth outpaced network capacity, creating grid congestion and connection delays. Despite investing over €1 billion in 2024 to expand cables and substations, bottlenecks remain. Stedin plan to spend a further €8 billion by 2030 on electricity network expansion and upgrades.
While New Zealand’s circumstances differ, the lesson is clear: rapid supply decline creates costly and disruptive network pressures with real costs for the sector and consumers.

Question for #Netherlands #Climatesky. The New Zealand gas industry just used you as a cautionary tale in their lobbying for New Zealand to urgently start LNG imports (vs a managed phase-down of declining domestic gas, which would kill their industry). Interested in any reactions!

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1 day ago
Preview
Iran Shocks Could Spur a Shift to Clean Energy — but Also to Coal

Solid piece about the potential consequences for clean energy. 🎁🔗

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6 days ago
Preview
Europe v America: Who’s Really Winning? A wonkish but important discussion

"Should Europe envy the United States for its tech sector? No. ... tech generates a big negative externality, because among other things it generates tech-bro billionaires, who are corrupting our politics."

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2 weeks ago

"fully installed system cost below $20 per kilowatt-hour": Can that be right? Don't we normally talk about cents per kWh?

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3 weeks ago

Update on this story, which many are (rightly) highly suspicious of.
Donut Lab will be posting a video of independent testing of their battery on 23rd Feb. "Full VTT test reports will be published" here: idonutbelieve.com

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3 weeks ago

You might notice above the general decline in total sales over several years:

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3 weeks ago
Graph showing: Thai new passenger cars sales by type: Monthly (Source: https://robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/)

Sharp increase in battery-electric car sales in Thailand in January.
🚗End of the EV3 incentive scheme aimed at manufacturers and importers.
🚗Reduction in vehicle tax for BEVs from 8% to 2%.
robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/

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3 weeks ago

Probably, but that series doesn't appear to be adjusted for inflation.

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3 weeks ago

Yes, that's my interpretation too.

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1 month ago
Preview
The Pentagon’s Coal Contract Will Be Just Another Bailout When politicians struggle to explain some action, they often reach for the catch-all of “national security.” The Trump administration has now taken this a step further in its ongoing campaign to reviv...

"To put it simply, if you are an incumbent industry that’s been around for a century or more and you need taxpayer dollars via the DoD to keep going, things are pretty grim."

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1 month ago

Totally normal with Japanese taxis. The passenger doors open and close at the remote control of the driver, and have done so for *decades*.

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1 month ago

Works fine for me too.

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1 month ago

Yes, including his observation that forecasting China's GDP growth is a fool's game not because it's hard but because the growth rate is always engineered to be achieved by means of whatever capital investment is needed. This focus on unproductive growth makes adjustment harder and harder every year

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1 month ago
Preview
Stortinget skroter klimamål: – Dette er fullstendig håpløst Et flertall på Stortinget mener klimanøytralitetsmålet må avskaffes. – Alvorlig, sier Venstres Marit Vea.

There's a majority in the Norwegian parliament for dropping the "climate neutral" 2030 target that was agreed back in 2016.

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1 month ago

Prime candidates would be Japan and South Korea. I did hear something a while back about China intending to capture their shares of the market.

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1 month ago

😊

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1 month ago

I wonder if this was the previous "climate story of the century"... 😉

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1 month ago

You're simply using the word 'government' differently to me. The judiciary is one of the three arms of government.
That Oatly can find an alternative solution isn't actually the point.
And of course the word 'milk' has been used for things other than animal secretions for >800 years.

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1 month ago
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Oatly banned from using word ‘milk’ to market plant-based products in UK Swedish company claims ruling is anti-competitive and ‘solely benefits Big Dairy’

You have to wonder just how delicate an industry is if it needs this sort of government intervention.

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1 month ago
Post image

One million Europeans are employed in clean tech value chains. Including batteries, bioenergy, geothermal, hydro, heat pumps, solar and wind. Jobs are doubled compared with 2010.

The data are not available, but EV and nuclear jobs would push this even higher.

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1 month ago

Hand on heart, it's never happened before, officer...

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1 month ago

Jan 2023 was 1860 new cars, while Jan 2026 was 2218.

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1 month ago

Huh, you're completely right!

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1 month ago

Nice to hear! More to come this year, watch this space.

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1 month ago
Graph showing: India's daily power generation from solar (Source: https://robbieandrew.github.io/india/)

Here's a version with the datatips turned on.

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1 month ago

Hehe. The final point is actually on the graph, just! Y limit there is 550 and the final point is 548.8. It's automatic, so should sort itself out.

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1 month ago

We should not be subsidising fossil fuels.

And it's a whopper of a subsidy: The fuel+capital+operating cost of LNG (via BCG "Energy to Grow" report) is $44/GJ, half of that capital+O&M costs, if its for dry-year cover only. So paying the fixed costs with a levy HALVES the LNG price... 1/-

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1 month ago

It's for feeder routes, so coastal shipping only.

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1 month ago

There are still two million non-electric cars on the roads in Norway, which is twice as many as the number of electric cars. There's no decline in the number of energy stations, and it costs money to remove the fuel pumps. Pure-petrol sales have been low for a long time.

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