Natalie Jackson

emailed you

correct.

Four in 10 Republicans think Trump improperly encouraged investigations GOP opinion is more nuanced than just lemmings following their leader.

In the latest LEADING INDICATORS, Natalie Jackson writes that, according to Pew, an increasing # of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents are uncomfortable with parts of Trump's agenda, including 4 in 10 who say he improperly encouraged probes of political opponents. Read on:

But she'll have $150m or so to go do whatever she wants next.

Charlie Kirk’s suspected killer is 22 years old, and that’s not unusual Young people are growing up in a toxic stew of violence and existential politics. They’re not OK.

Politics is more divisive and personal for young people because our current political environment is all they’ve known.
Natalie Jackson with the latest Leading Indicators (unlocked):
www.nationaljournal.com/s/729603/cha...

I'm presenting an AAPOR webinar on Thursday on best practices. portal.aapor.org/integratedEv....

This will draw on five years of AAPOR presentations, plus hot off the press findings from surveys we fielded at the end of August.

It is incredibly simple to acknowledge that violence in any form is awful and erodes society.

Midterm (Convention) Madness Plus all the links.

On midterm conventions, plus so many links @mattglassman312.bsky.social @normornstein.bsky.social @mirandayaver.bsky.social @smotus.bsky.social @dcinbox.bsky.social @dandrezner.bsky.social @johnsides.bsky.social @nataliej.bsky.social and more goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/midterm-co...

RFK Jr.’s rise is a symptom of a long-term systemic illness Mandates and mistrust supercharged the anti-vax movement.

The fact that the current HHS secretary is an anti-vaxxer isn’t the original sin; his ability to rise to prominence shows just how much the system was already broken by misinformation.
Natalie Jackson with the latest Leading Indicators (unlocked):
www.nationaljournal.com/s/729480/rfk...

Most D.C. residents oppose Trump’s city police takeover, poll finds Though crime continues to be a concern, most residents don’t think Trump’s actions will make D.C. safer, according to a Washington Post-Schar School poll.

We asked D.C. residents what they think about Trump's takeover of local police and deployment of troops/federal agents, along with crime, statehood, the mayor and related issues wapo.st/45EHfZQ

Running into stationary objects can be painful, according to a recent pole.

AAPOR Statement on the Removal of BLS Commissioner McEntarfer - AAPOR On behalf of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), we write to express deep concern regarding the removal of the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Erika McE...

AAPOR Statement on the Removal of BLS Commissioner McEntarfer aapor.org/statements/a...

Also had ACA approval for years in addition to prez approval on topics. It was an interesting trend.

Pollster had a bunch of these.

This chart from
@pewresearch.org intrigued me.

For my @nationaljournal.com column this week, I mused on the disconnect between president and personal lives: Maybe the political news they hear doesn't seem relevant to their daily lives?

Read more here: www.nationaljournal.com/s/729049/ame...

Implication is that you need both professional and nonprofessional respondents in the right mix to get a good sample...
but who knows what that mix is?
And are there any nonprofessional respondents left in online panels by now?

I (+ coauthors) published research in 2014 showing how "professional" respondents had less political interest (i.e., they're there for the incentives) than those who only took one or two (i.e., probably in it because they're interested).

This would be a great dataset for replicating that finding.

How Americans think a president impacts the country and their personal lives Americans widely say that who the president is has a large impact on the country overall but a more limited impact on their own personal lives.

And here's the full Pew piece: www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...

This chart from
@pewresearch.org intrigued me.

For my @nationaljournal.com column this week, I mused on the disconnect between president and personal lives: Maybe the political news they hear doesn't seem relevant to their daily lives?

Read more here: www.nationaljournal.com/s/729049/ame...

I would like a conversion rate for what running 5.5 miles in an absolute hot soupy swamp translates to in normal miles. It has to be around 8 based on effort expended. #marathontraining

Everyone is worried about natural disasters. Most don’t think one will happen to them. Catastrophic flooding in Texas triggers debate about warnings, but will anything change?

There's no evidence so far that staffing shortages had anything to do with the Texas flood tragedy.

I explain what did matter - what it's like in Kerr Co (I have family there) & why we never seem to muster the political will to better prepare for disasters.

www.nationaljournal.com/s/728978/eve...

Everyone is worried about natural disasters. Most don’t think one will happen to them. Catastrophic flooding in Texas triggers debate about warnings, but will anything change?

There's no evidence so far that staffing shortages had anything to do with the Texas flood tragedy.

I explain what did matter - what it's like in Kerr Co (I have family there) & why we never seem to muster the political will to better prepare for disasters.

www.nationaljournal.com/s/728978/eve...

'You’re roadkill in the middle' Murkowski aptly describes the problem facing moderate Republicans.

I wrote my @nationaljournal.com column this week on the disappearing Republican middle, with thanks to Sen. Murkowski for providing case-in-point this afternoon.

No one wants to be a dead armadillo in Congress. Trump has made it even worse.

www.nationaljournal.com/s/728927/you...

'You’re roadkill in the middle' Murkowski aptly describes the problem facing moderate Republicans.

I wrote my @nationaljournal.com column this week on the disappearing Republican middle, with thanks to Sen. Murkowski for providing case-in-point this afternoon.

No one wants to be a dead armadillo in Congress. Trump has made it even worse.

www.nationaljournal.com/s/728927/you...

Opinion on Iran strikes is more about Trump than 'forever wars' The old specter of Iraq still looms large, but public opinion has fundamentally changed in 22 years.

Opinion on Iran strikes is more about Trump than 'forever wars'
(‪@nataliej.bsky.social‬)
www.nationaljournal.com/s/728859/opi...

that's actually in this piece.

Public opinion for strikes in Iran will never look like it did before the Iraq war. We don't live in that world anymore. Whose idea it is and how we ask is what matters.

There is an interesting age divide among Republicans, though.

@nationaljournal.com

www.nationaljournal.com/s/728859/opi...

Support-oppose for strikes in Iran:
YouGov 35-46 (-11)
Ipsos 36-45 (-9)
CNN 44-56 (-12)

What's the difference? CNN doesn't have an explicit DK option. If you look at nets, it's basically the same result across all three polls - opposition outpaces support by 9-12 pts.

After 10 years of Trump, analyzing polls has become a different game Everything you knew is wrong. Black is white, up is down, and short is long.

10 years after the golden escalator, public opinion looks quite different. Some of this was in progress, but Trump accelerated it. We're more closely divided, and it changes how we look at polls.

Read my @nationaljournal.com column this week to see how.

www.nationaljournal.com/s/728814/aft...

U.S. Image Declines in Many Nations Amid Low Confidence in Trump More than half of adults in 19 of 24 countries surveyed lack confidence in Trump’s leadership on the world stage.

source: www.pewresearch.org/global/2025/...