Chatham House Middle East and North Africa

⏺️ Webinar recording: Will the Iraq-Kuwait dispute undermine the future of Gulf integration?

@renadmansour.bsky.social, Bader Al-Saif, Farhad Alaaldin Luigi Di Maio & Lahib Higel discuss renewed Iraq–Kuwait tensions in this #IraqInitiative webinar.
www.facebook.com/share/v/1EjZ...

"Macron's decision is about pressure. This is about building international support for a credible pathway to statehood."

Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on French President Emmanuel Macron's decision to recognise a Palestinian state, via @cnn.com.

Iraq Initiative Conference 2025 At the 7th annual Iraq Initiative conference, Iraqi and international policymakers, experts and civil society, convene in London to explore Iraq’s trajectory in the year ahead.

Visit the event page below to register your interest in attending virtually or in person at Chatham House, and for information on speakers and the conference agenda ⤵️
www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/r...

We convene Iraqi & intl policymakers, experts & practitioners to examine #Iraq’s trajectory with a focus on:
▪️ Iraq’s politics ahead of 2025 elections
▪️ Infrastructure at the crossroads of progress and conflict
▪️ Economic and demographic challenges
▪️ Iraq’s foreign affairs

🚨 Register your interest now for the 2025 #IraqInitiative Conference!

Join us on 1 October @chathamhouse.org & online to explore how Iraq can secure more lasting stability and economic resilience in an era of regional and global uncertainty.
www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/r...

How Russia, Turkey and Iran are reshaping the Caucasus - Kalam In recent years, the South Caucasus has become a microcosm of multipolarity, with Russia, Turkey and Iran competing for influence and navigating a fragile mix

The article is part of a series from a CATS Network & Chatham House MENAP project examining the evolving nature of Turkish–Iranian relations & how global & regional geopolitical developments impact bilateral ties & EU, US & UK policies towards the 2 states. 5/5
kalam.chathamhouse.org/articles/how...

The emerging regional order is shaped by a fluid balance of power between Russia, Turkey & Iran, replacing the previous Russia-dominated framework defined by its rivalry with the West. While Russia’s decline may be temporary, some broader trends are likely to endure. 4/5

3 key features are emerging: imbalanced multipolarity, fluid patterns of cooperation and rivalry, and growing interconnection between the South Caucasus and the Middle East. 3/5

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine led to the decline of its once-uncontested hegemony in the South Caucasus, ushering in a more fragmented regional order. 2/5

How Russia, Turkey and Iran are reshaping the Caucasus - Kalam In recent years, the South Caucasus has become a microcosm of multipolarity, with Russia, Turkey and Iran competing for influence and navigating a fragile mix

📢 NEW article from the series ‘Evolving Turkey–Iran relations and implications for regional reordering’

Natalie Sabanadze (@chrussiaeurasia.bsky.social) discusses how Russia, Turkey and Iran are reshaping the South Caucasus 🧵
kalam.chathamhouse.org/articles/how...

Experts discuss domestic political, social, and security dynamics in Israel following the June Iran-Israel war. | Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Programme Experts discuss domestic political, social, and security dynamics in Israel following the June Iran-Israel war..

⏺️ Webinar recording | Iran-Israel war: The impact on Israel

Eran Etzion, Nimrod Novik, Dahlia Scheindlin & Ksenia Svetlova discuss domestic political, social & security dynamics in Israel following the June Iran-Israel war.

Watch below ⤵️
www.facebook.com/CHMENAProg/v...

'It is unclear whether an unarmed Hezbollah could compete effectively in free elections, within Lebanon’s complex political system,' says Bilal Y Saab via Arab News.
www.arabnews.com/node/2608934...

"This will lead to a reimagination of Turkish citizenship, the idea of the Turkish nation and Turkey's geopolitical identity."

@galipdalay.bsky.social (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the disarmament of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and what it means for 🇹🇷, via @aljazeera.com

Iran–Israel war: The impact on Israel Experts discuss domestic political, social, and security dynamics in Israel following the June Iran-Israel war.

📢 NEW WEBINAR | Iran-Israel war: The impact on Israel

Eran Etzion, Nimrod Novik, Dahlia Scheindlin & Ksenia Svetlova discuss domestic political, social & security dynamics in Israel following the June Iran-Israel war.

📅 21 July
⏰ 14.00 BST
📍 Zoom

Register ⤵️
www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/r...

Not so great expectations from Trump and Netanyahu Summits create expectations. But a meeting between President Donald Trump and Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu – the third since Trump’s return to the White House – yielded very little.

Summits create expectations. But a meeting between President Donald Trump and Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu – the third since Trump’s return to the White House – yielded very little, writes Yossi Mekelberg.

Read the new expert comment ⬇️
www.chathamhouse.org/2025/07/not-...

🎥 Event recording: 'Iran-Israel war: The impact on Iran'

Maziar Bahari, Danny Citrinowicz, Suzanne Maloney, Naghmeh Sohrabi and Sanam Vakil discuss internal political, social and security dynamics in Iran.

Watch in full ⤵️
fb.watch/AKggWH4nsk/

"With the war in Iran [Netanyahu] is in the best position to go and ask the people whether they want him for a seventh government."

Yossi Mekelberg (@chmenap.bsky.social) on whether Benjamin Netanyahu will call elections in Israel, via @aljazeera.com.

Lebanon’s moment of truth The Lebanese government must stop shirking its responsibilities and push Hezbollah to disarm – taking advantage of the historic momentum in the region.

The Lebanese government must stop shirking its responsibilities and push Hezbollah to disarm – taking advantage of the historic momentum in the region, writes Associate Fellow Bilal Y Saab.

Read the analysis⤵️
www.chathamhouse.org/2025/07/leba...

Where Iran Goes From Here The regime may have survived a war with Israel, but its legitimacy is more fragile than ever, writes Sanam Vakil.

'While Iranians demonstrated unity against the unprecedented Israeli and U.S. strikes, the war raised urgent questions about the regime’s survival and Iran’s evolution.'

Read the new article 'Where Iran Goes From Here' by Sanam Vakil, via Time.

time.com/7297634/iran...

Iraq’s fragile stability is threatened by a shifting Middle Eastern order The region’s balance of power is being violently upended. It will be difficult for Iraq to avoid being drawn into the upheaval.

'This moment of fragile calm is unlikely to endure. Iraq is on the brink of being drawn into what appears to be a transformative upheaval in the regional order,' writes @renadmansour.bsky.social.

Read the new analysis ⤵️
www.chathamhouse.org/2025/06/iraq...

Iran just fought a punishing war with Israel. Why its allies stayed away. Iran trained and armed a network of regional proxies to help it stand up to Israel and the United States. But they were absent from the costly war it just fought. One reason: a preoccupation with thei...

Iran-backed groups 'are in varying degrees looking to survive but also focusing on how to reconstitute themselves & keep the local power they have intact,' says @renadmansour.bsky.social via @csmonitor.bsky.social.
www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle...

Iran’s supreme leader faces his defining moment Ali Khamenei must choose between escalation, a diplomatic compromise with the US, or containing the conflict to Israel

Khamenei could revert to his strategy of seeking to escalate to de-escalate. They are more boxed in than they have ever been and they need to find an off-ramp, says Sanam Vakil via @financialtimes.com.
www.ft.com/content/cc87...

After opening success, Israel, US consider endgame in Iran The stunning initial successes of Israel's surprise campaign against Iran's nuclear program and military leadership launched last Friday were evident within hours.

'The record of regime change is not great, to say the least. You want to experiment with chaos? Well, good luck.'

Associate Fellow Yossi Mekelberg addresses recent discussions about potential outcomes for the Israel - Iran war, via ABC News.

abcnews.go.com/Internationa...

Iran–Israel conflict: Iran has run out of good options As the US considers whether or not to join Israeli strikes on Iran, a new balance of power is emerging in the Middle East – and it is tilting heavily in favour of Israel.

'As the US considers whether or not to join Israeli strikes on Iran, a new balance of power is emerging in the Middle East – and it is tilting heavily in favour of Israel.'

Read the new Expert Comment by @thomasjuneau.bsky.social ⤵️
www.chathamhouse.org/2025/06/iran...

Why Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’ Is Missing in Action Militia groups allied with Tehran have mostly stayed out of its war with Israel.

'Many of Iran's allied militias question if this is the time for resistance or whether it’s the time to keep your head down and try to stay out of this conflict,' says @renadmansour.bsky.social via @wsj.com.

www.wsj.com/world/middle...

Trump must take control as Israel–Iran war threatens to escalate Washington is at risk of letting Israel drive the agenda in the Middle East, with potentially disastrous consequences.

Washington is at risk of letting Israel drive the agenda in the Middle East, with potentially disastrous consequences. A course correction is urgently needed, writes Bilal Y Saab.

www.chathamhouse.org/2025/06/trum...

A Last Chance at Middle East Peace Arab states may be the key to stopping the Israel-Iran war.

'There is still a narrow window to avoid an all-out war. But with Washington having seemingly cooled to diplomacy, it is up to countries in the region to stop the conflict,' writes MENA Programme Director Sanam Vakil in @foreignaffairs.com.

www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/last-...

After the Oct 20 Kurdistan Parliament election, I wrote for
@chmenap.bsky.social that government formation would be "exceedingly difficult."

It's more than 240 days since the election and officially going slower than last time. In the 2018-19 cycle, that's when a KR President was picked.

With strikes on Iran, Netanyahu has diverted criticism of Israel’s Gaza operations European and regional powers largely approve of efforts to prevent an Iranian bomb. So too do Israelis. But without US support to finish the job, the long-term prospects for that support look shaky.

'The initial results of the strikes reveal a paradox: Israel’s strategic position is strengthening – even as fundamental questions emerge about the sustainability of its independent military approach,' writes Ksenia Svetlova.

Read the analysis ⤵️
www.chathamhouse.org/2025/06/stri...

Starting now 🔽