Chatham House Middle East and North Africa

🎥 Event recording: 'Is the MENA region stabilizing or spiralling?'

@faisalalyafai.bsky.social, Galip Dalay, Tim Eaton, @renadmansour.bsky.social & Sanam Vakil discuss political, security & economic dynamics to watch in MENA in 2026.

Watch in full ⤵️
www.youtube.com/live/6viPAwN...

"This year will be the most consequential year for the Islamic Republic. There will either be transition from within or forced transition."

Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the major challenges facing the regime in Iran this year ⤵️

Trump’s objective is to force Iran into strategic submission The threat of force is still very much on the table – as the president seeks to use pressure and unpredictability to turn Iranian weakness into a durable shift that benefits the US.

Even though the White House pulled back from military action, the threat of force is still on the table. Trump's approach is to use pressure & unpredictability to turn Iranian weakness into a durable shift that benefits the US, writes Sanam Vakil.
www.chathamhouse.org/2026/01/trum...

Trump’s Syria policy is at risk of unravelling Clashes between the Syrian government and the SDF and deadlocked talks with Israel threaten to drag Syria into renewed conflict. The EU should step in with a longer-term approach.

Clashes between the Syrian government and the SDF and deadlocked talks with Israel threaten to drag Syria into renewed conflict. The EU should step in with a longer-term approach, writes Neil Quilliam.
www.chathamhouse.org/2026/01/trum...

Iran's protests: Will this time be different? Experts discuss the protests in Iran, the Islamic Republic’s response, and what might happen next.

📢 NEW WEBINAR | Iran's protests: Will this time be different?

Renad Mansour, Shayan Sardarizadeh, Nate Swanson, Sanam Vakil & Azadeh Zamirirad discuss the protests in Iran, the Islamic Republic’s response & what might happen next.

📅 19/1
🕐 15.00 GMT
Register ⤵️
www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/s...

With thousands dead, the Iranian regime may survive these protests – but not in its current form | Sanam Vakil With fear, surveillance and brute force only set to increase, there are disturbing parallels with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, says Sanam Vakil of Chatham House

Donald Trump has threatened potential military intervention on behalf of the protesters. Tehran has responded by warning that any US strike could trigger retaliation.

Read Sanam Vakil’s (@chmenap.bsky.social) latest analysis on the protests in Iran, via @theguardian.com.

"Without strong and coordinated support from the US, it's hard to see how protestors inside Iran can brave the repression which has been extraordinary."

Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the violent crackdown on anti-government protestors by Iran's regime, via BBC News ⤵️

"These protests, whatever the outcome, will further damage an already fractured legitimacy for a state system that is at the end of its life."

Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the impact of anti-government protestors on the Islamic Republic of Iran, via @cnn.com ⤵️

"The Iranian government led by Masoud Pezeshkian is looking to placate popular concerns, get strikers in urban areas off the streets and buy some time as Iran is facing multiple threats."

Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the anti-government protests in Iran, via BBC News ⤵️

Is the MENA region stabilizing or spiralling? Experts discuss the key political, security, and economic dynamics to watch in MENA in 2026.

📢 Join us on 20 January for 'Is the MENA region stabilizing or spiralling?'

Galip Dalay, Tim Eaton, Renad Mansour & Sanam Vakil discuss the key political, security & economic dynamics to watch in MENA in 2026.

🕐 17.15 GMT
📍 @chathamhouse.org & online
www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/r...

How the Middle East and North Africa can benefit from adaptive climate governance Striking the balance between rights-based and technocratic approaches

Click below to read the full research paper by Karim Elgendy & explore its policy recommendations.

The publication is part of a MENA Programme project ‘Evolving social contract in the MENA region’ supported by the Carnegie Corporation New York. 9/9 www.chathamhouse.org/2025/12/how-...

This paper proposes policy recommendations for governments, civil society & international climate finance institutions, focusing on practical, near-term measures that can be integrated into existing institutions, aiming to improve implementation and strengthen public trust. 8/9

Adaptive climate governance is emerging as the most pragmatic path. It recognises that both input legitimacy (inclusion, transparency) and capacity (central coordination, expertise) are needed to deliver green investment and maintain public trust. 7/9

Most states now operate hybrid systems. Countries like Jordan combine selective participation with technocratic, investment-driven delivery – balancing public acceptance, donor requirements, and tight fiscal constraints. 6/9

Two main climate governance models dominate the region:
• Participatory systems build legitimacy through inclusion but often struggle with delivery.
• Techno-investment systems deliver fast results but risk legitimacy gaps. 5/9

MENA countries face climate change from very unequal starting points. Wealthy hydrocarbon exporters can fund large-scale projects, while resource-constrained states depend on external finance and must prioritise affordability and institutional capacity. 4/9

Public buy-in is critical. Climate policies affect everyday life – from energy subsidies to land use and infrastructure. Where people feel consulted and informed, governments are better placed to deliver difficult long-term reforms and sustain social contracts. 3/9

Climate governance in the MENA region will shape the region’s political and economic future. As climate impacts intensify and energy transitions accelerate, how governments manage climate action matters more than ever. 2/9

How the Middle East and North Africa can benefit from adaptive climate governance Striking the balance between rights-based and technocratic approaches

📢NEW PAPER: How the Middle East & North Africa can benefit from adaptive climate governance

Karim Elgendy argues that adaptive climate governance can be most effective, allowing MENA states to balance public participation & capacity to deliver results.
www.chathamhouse.org/2025/12/how-...

Escaping the cycle of conflict in Libya Why an enhanced ‘economic track’ must be integrated into political negotiations

An enhanced approach will need to focus on five areas: a. Immediate stabilization via mediation; b. Structural reform through a consultative process; c. Capacity building; d. Anti-corruption enforcement; e. Public diplomacy (8/8)
www.chathamhouse.org/2025/12/esca...

Drawing upon lessons from Libya and comparable countries, this paper argues that breaking the country’s cycle of violence and instability requires political negotiations to formally integrate measures to address the economic drivers of conflict. 7/8

For ordinary Libyans, these dynamics translate into rising prices, shrinking purchasing power, medicine and fuel shortages, and banking liquidity issues that have left public servants unable to access their wages. 6/8

If expenditures unrecorded in official data are accounted for, Libya’s true fiscal deficit in 2024 may have reached US$10.4 billion – which would equate to an astonishing 22% of GDP. This is not sustainable. 5/8

International actors’ short-term deals on banking, budgets or oil revenues, have never added up to a coherent, internationally mediated ‘economic track’.

Clientelist networks and corruption has continued to flourish. 4/8

Libya’s political contestation has been inseparable from competition for control of resources, revenues and state institutions. However, formal mediation efforts have overwhelmingly focused on politics, leaving the economic roots of instability unaddressed. 3/8

This paper makes the case for an alternative approach. To be effective, peacebuilding must also include formally mediated economic negotiations. 2/8

Escaping the cycle of conflict in Libya Why an enhanced ‘economic track’ must be integrated into political negotiations

🚨 NEW @chathamhouse.org paper: Escaping the cycle of conflict in Libya

Tim Eaton argues that efforts to restore stability in Libya have too often focused on power- and wealth-sharing among rival factions. 🧵

www.chathamhouse.org/2025/12/esca...

A careful balancing act: Turkey-Iran competition in regional Kurdish geopolitics - Kalam By virtue of geography and demography, Kurdish populations will always play a role in relations between Turkey and Iran. Both countries are accused of

Work in the summer was dominated by regional affairs. @chmenap.bsky.social asked me to write about how the relationship between Turkey & Iran affects the Kurds. It requires careful management to balance competition between the 2 states, while avoiding friction.
kalam.chathamhouse.org/articles/a-c...

Lebanon's technocratic government one year in Experts discuss the challenges of Israel, Syria, Hezbollah and public demands for reform.

📢 Upcoming webinar | Lebanon's technocratic government one year in

Experts discuss the challenges of Israel, Syria, Hezbollah and public demands for reform.

📅 14 January
🕐 14.00 GMT
📍 Zoom

Register now ⤵️
www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/r...

The world in 2026 Chatham House experts highlight the crunch moments and potential flashpoints in the year ahead.

'This year will be a test of whether Middle East ceasefires can be a foundation for meaningful diplomacy and sustainable peace agreements,' writes Sanam Vakil in the newest issue of @theworldtoday.org.

www.chathamhouse.org/publications...