Guzman Ourens

New paper out in @science.org!

“Brain drain” or “brain gain”?
Effects of high-skilled international emigration on origin countries

doi.org/10.1126/scie...

A quantitative general equilibrium model is calibrated using US and Western European data. Results indicate that the quantitative importance of extensive margin growth in explaining expenditure share shifts and terms of trade movements is substantial.

The expenditure shift pushes terms of trade against economies specialized in the lagging sector —a result opposite to the standard terms-of-trade effect that emerges with unbalanced intensive margin growth. Empirical evidence supports the model's predictions.

A model shows how uneven product diversification generates macro trends qualitatively different from those arising when uneven growth occurs along the intensive margin. With love of variety, consumers endogenously reduce expenditure shares on sectors diversifying production least.

This paper documents that product diversification occurs at systematically lower rates in agricultural sectors compared to manufacturing activities. Trade data shows this pattern holds robustly across countries and decades. Domestic production data for the US and EU confirm the finding.

Happy to announce a new paper published at the IER!

Uneven product diversification: Explaining the Lag of Agricultural Economies.

Gravity for Undergrads La ecuación de gravedad es el modelo de referencia en el comercio internacional y la herramienta más utilizada para el análisis de políticas comerciales. No obstante, a pesar de sus sólidas bases teór

Contento de compartir la siguiente guía en español para la estimación de modelos de gravedad elaborada por @yotoyotov.bsky.social y traducida por @jordipaniagua.bsky.social y yo.
La guía se puede descargar aquí: ideas.repec.org/p/drx/wpaper...
Los datos y código aquí: yotoyotov.com/Gravity_Unde...

🚨🚨New PhD position open @tilburg-university.bsky.social ECON. Come join a vibrant academic environment that gives you everything you need to succeed!🫵

Call 👇:
tiu.nu/22836

Uruguay ante un nuevo mundo comercial Razones y Personas surge como plataforma virtual independiente desde la cual discutir algunos temas cruciales para la coyuntura y el futuro de Uruguay

🇺🇸🤜🤛🇨🇳 (🇺🇾?)

What can be the effects of the new trade war on economies such as Uruguay?

I wrote this 👇 (in Spanish):

www.razonesypersonas.com/2025/04/urug...

Congrats Alejandro! Well deserved!

@dajana-xhani.bsky.social @kgantert.bsky.social

Less than a week left to apply!
Send us your best papers!

Only two more weeks to apply to the 4th edition of the Tilburg Macro Conference! Please consider applying or sharing with colleagues. Call for papers available at us10.campaign-archive.com?u=bb253d28cb...

Steel Tariffs and U.S. Jobs Revisited | Econofact The 2018 tariffs raised domestic steel prices, putting downstream U.S. manufacturing firms at a disadvantage relative to foreign competition.

In light of latest of steel/aluminum tariff threats, it's a good time to review the evidence.

This work finds job losses in metals-using sectors outweigh job gains in metal sectors ~75 to 1.

Steel Tariffs and U.S. Jobs Revisited econofact.org/steel-tariff... via @econofact.bsky.social

Very happy to advertise a new edition of the Tilburg-GIFT Conference. This year's keynotes: Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe and Simon Mongey. Send us your best papers in Growth, Trade, Firm Dynamics and macro in general!

📢 1st Junior Workshop Economics of Latin America - Call for Papers!

Aimed at PhD students & recent post-docs looking to connect with folks working on Latin American topics.

10-11 July 2025 in Berlin.

Submission deadline: Feb 28. (details below)

#EconConf #EconSky

Trade economists: After you publish your first trade paper, add yourself to Alan Deadorff's Family Tree of Trade Economists. public.websites.umich.edu/~alandear/tr...

The cohort sizes suggest the field is in decline, but I think participation has fallen. Sign up!

Hi! I’d love to be added!

In LATAM, this is unfortunately not true.

Moreover, we expect center-right incumbent to hand in power peacefully in March. Orsi has even expressed willingness to include opposition in new government!

Uruguay election: Former history teacher Yamandú Orsi wins Yamandú Orsi's victory ushers in the return to power of the left-wing Broad Front coalition.

🇺🇾 Elections held yesterday in Uruguay. 🇺🇾 Center-left party won presidency.

While we expect a lot from the new gov, we don't expect drastic changes in macro policy as all parties agree on basic macro principles.
www.bbc.com/news/article...

Tinghan Zhang, tinghan-zhang.github.io

Shobhit Kulshreshtha, sites.google.com/view/shobhit...

Quang-Phuc Phung, quangphucphung.com

Leena Bhattacharya, sites.google.com/view/leenabh...

Dongchen He, dongchen-he.github.io

Selin Arslanoglu, www.selinarslanoglu.com

Antonio Laplana, www.antoniolaplana.com

Lishu Zhang, lishuz.github.io

Jierui Yang, sites.google.com/view/jieruiy...