Michael McFaul

The Day After the Fall of a Dictator The fall of tyrants must always be celebrated. The hard part is what comes next.

My latest:

The Day After the Fall of a Dictator
open.substack.com/pub/michaelm...

Trump says Iran wants to negotiate, but he’s also called on Iranians to rise up and “take over” their government. Which is it? You can’t negotiate with the same regime you’re trying to replace — that’s absurd.

The Day After the Fall of a Dictator The fall of tyrants must always be celebrated. The hard part is what comes next.

The fall of tyrants must always be celebrated. The hard part is what comes next.
Read my latest on Substack: michaelmcfaul.substack.com/p/the-day-af...

YouTube video by Hoover Institution “They’re Not Like Us”: Michael McFaul on Autocrats vs. Democrats and the Fight for the 21st Century

NEW Uncommon Knowledge: Former US ambassador to Russia @mcfaulmike.bsky.social discusses his book, Autocrats vs. Democrats.

McFaul explains why today’s autocrats fundamentally do not think like we do and why he remains convinced that democracy is still the West’s greatest strategic advantage.

As a former diplomat working in Russia, I can tell you that negotiating with adversaries is hard. They take time and patience. To be successful , one needs to understand your interlocutors.

The public evidence on the Iranian negotiations suggests that we didn’t try very hard.

Bush split the NATO alliance over the war in Iraq, but dozens of allies and partners supported his invasion.

Trump only has one partner so far -- Israel. 5/ END

Bush convinced a giant majority of Americans of the need for war.

Trump did not. 4/

Bush convinced the Senate of the need to go to war. We had a big debate. And then an overwhelming majority voted in favor of war.

Trump did not. 3/

Bush tried to convince the UN Security Council to support the invasion. In doing so, the Bush team had to spell out the reasons for war.

Trump did not. 2/

On the comparison between Bush's war against Iraq in 2003 and Trump's war against Iran this week, there are some important differences. THREAD 1/

All Americans I know want to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

All Americans I know would like to see theocracy fall and democracy emerge in Iran.

The debate is not about these objectives but about the most effective means of achieving them.

Is war the best means? I'm skeptical.

I don’t remember Trump talking about military action against Iran on the campaign trail. Or Venezuela. Or Greenland.

Nearly a year ago, I managed to change the subtitle of my new book to add the phrase--

"the New Global Disorder."

Especially given recent events, glad I did.

www.amazon.com/Autocrats-vs...

I pray that the Iranian people will be liberated from theocratic tyranny and live in freedom and democracy.

I worry that Trump will cut a deal with some new autocratic group minus the Supreme Leader, just like he did in Venezuela.

I'm hoping to be wrong.

I don’t remember Trump talking about military action against Iran on the campaign trail. Or Venezuela. Or Greenland.

All Americans I know want to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

All Americans I know would like to see theocracy fall and democracy emerge in Iran.

The debate is not about these objectives but about the most effective means of achieving them.

Is war the best means? I'm skeptical.

I was asked in a Q&A this week about Russia’s post-Putin leadership.

Short term? We likely see a Putin 2.0–type successor.

Longer term? History suggests the pendulum swings.

Watch below, or check out McFaul's World on Substack for more:
michaelmcfaul.substack.com/p/recording-...

Recording: Q+A Live with Michael McFaul A recording from Michael McFaul's live video

If you missed my Q+A on Substack earlier today, you can now check out the full recording here: michaelmcfaul.substack.com/p/recording-...

I'll be doing an Ask Me Anything session today on Substack Live, Friday, 27 February (11am PST / 2pm EST). Check out McFaul's World for more details. See you there! michaelmcfaul.substack.com

Reminder: Q+A on Substack Live, Friday, 27 February (11am PST / 2pm EST) Join me for a discussion as we mark four years of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine

REMINDER: Join me for an Ask Me Anything session today on Substack Live, Friday, 27 February (11am PST / 2pm EST)
michaelmcfaul.substack.com/p/reminder-q...

Stop trying to change Putin’s mind. Change his capabilities instead. Arm Ukraine with more and better weapons, and impose tougher sanctions on Russian individuals and companies to cut off the money funding this war.

The two least pleasant parts of my job— grading and admissions committees. In the thick of the latter right now.

We should let everyone in!

And give everyone As!

Embracing Putin while withholding critical support for Ukraine makes us look like a feckless friend and partner.

And making allies purchase weapons just to reroute them to Ukraine? That isn’t leadership—it’s immoral.

I was US ambassador to Russia. Trump’s recklessness is playing into Putin’s hands 'Trump’s negotiating tactics have dramatically weakened Ukraine’s position,' says Michael McFaul, former US ambassador to Russia

Speaking from firsthand experience negotiating with the Kremlin, @mcfaulmike.bsky.social offers his take on what the White House needs to do to make progress on getting Putin to agree to a ceasefire in #Ukraine. ow.ly/krAy50YkLya

Reminder: Q+A on Substack Live, Friday, 27 February (11am PST / 2pm EST) Join me for a discussion as we mark four years of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine

I’ll be hosting a Q+A on Substack Live on Friday, 27 Feb at 11am PST / 2pm EST to discuss where we are in this war—and where we may be heading next. Check out McFaul's World on Substack for more details:

Putin’s brutal war is a vanity project. He doesn’t care about Ukrainians—but he doesn't care about his own citizens either. This war ends when we strengthen Ukraine on the battlefield, tighten sanctions to starve Russia's war machine, and force Moscow to negotiate on equal terms. W/ @news.sky.com.

Four years later, Zelenskyy is still standing. An amazing achievement! #SlavaUkraini!

The immense determination of Ukrainian warriors & civilians has prevented Putin from achieving any of his initial war aims:
Tried to take all Ukraine—failed.
Tried to overthrow Zelenskyy—failed.
Tried to stop NATO expansion—failed.
Putin is losing this war. I just hope it ends soon.

Putin has been trying to seize control of Donbas since 2014, and still has not succeeded. So now he is begging Trump to give it to him. What an incredible achievement of Ukrainian warriors.