If Russia Has ‘All the Cards,’ Why Has It Achieved So Little? www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/o...
05.03.2026 00:51 — 👍 121 🔁 29 💬 7 📌 0
If Russia Has ‘All the Cards,’ Why Has It Achieved So Little? www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/o...
05.03.2026 00:51 — 👍 121 🔁 29 💬 7 📌 0Trump thinks projecting strength means using military power whenever possible. But if we look like we ignore the rules, it's harder to explain why our actions are different from those we criticize elsewhere. In an era of great power competition with Russia & China, that hurts us.
05.03.2026 00:35 — 👍 94 🔁 33 💬 5 📌 1
Why do autocrats like Putin and Xi think so differently from democratic leaders—and why has that misunderstanding shaped U.S. foreign policy? I discussed this and more with Peter Robinson on the Uncommon Knowledge podcast. Take a listen: www.hoover.org/research/the...
05.03.2026 00:00 — 👍 49 🔁 16 💬 3 📌 0
Two months after Trump removed Maduro from power in Venezuela, dictatorship there remains in place.
I hope Iran will be different. I fear it won’t.
A lot happened in February.
In my latest newsletter, I recap the events that shaped this period—from Ukraine to Iran:
Hard deals don’t get done in weeks. Serious diplomacy requires time, direct engagement, and experienced negotiators. We didn’t see that with Iran, and that begs the question of whether these negotiations were ever aimed at reaching an agreement or simply a decoy. W/ @katiecouric.bsky.social
03.03.2026 21:30 — 👍 165 🔁 68 💬 10 📌 4
I sat down for a live video with Katie Couric to discuss the US and Israeli bombing of Iran — what we know, what we don’t know, and where we might be going next. Check out the full recording on my Substack: michaelmcfaul.substack.com/p/discussing...
03.03.2026 20:00 — 👍 54 🔁 16 💬 0 📌 1What new argument will tomorrow bring?
03.03.2026 19:01 — 👍 86 🔁 6 💬 8 📌 0
Shifting Trump reasons on Iran:
-Nuclear threat (but we already "obliterated" the program)
-Ballistic missile threat (but it's 10yrs before they can attack US)
-Terrorist threat (but Hamas/Hezbollah severely weakened)
-Liberating Iranian people (but wait, we changed our minds)
-Israel made us do it
My latest:
The Day After the Fall of a Dictator
open.substack.com/pub/michaelm...
Trump says Iran wants to negotiate, but he’s also called on Iranians to rise up and “take over” their government. Which is it? You can’t negotiate with the same regime you’re trying to replace — that’s absurd.
03.03.2026 01:07 — 👍 206 🔁 62 💬 15 📌 4
The fall of tyrants must always be celebrated. The hard part is what comes next.
Read my latest on Substack: michaelmcfaul.substack.com/p/the-day-af...
NEW Uncommon Knowledge: Former US ambassador to Russia @mcfaulmike.bsky.social discusses his book, Autocrats vs. Democrats.
McFaul explains why today’s autocrats fundamentally do not think like we do and why he remains convinced that democracy is still the West’s greatest strategic advantage.
As a former diplomat working in Russia, I can tell you that negotiating with adversaries is hard. They take time and patience. To be successful , one needs to understand your interlocutors.
The public evidence on the Iranian negotiations suggests that we didn’t try very hard.
Bush split the NATO alliance over the war in Iraq, but dozens of allies and partners supported his invasion.
Trump only has one partner so far -- Israel. 5/ END
Bush convinced a giant majority of Americans of the need for war.
Trump did not. 4/
Bush convinced the Senate of the need to go to war. We had a big debate. And then an overwhelming majority voted in favor of war.
Trump did not. 3/
Bush tried to convince the UN Security Council to support the invasion. In doing so, the Bush team had to spell out the reasons for war.
Trump did not. 2/
On the comparison between Bush's war against Iraq in 2003 and Trump's war against Iran this week, there are some important differences. THREAD 1/
02.03.2026 18:00 — 👍 81 🔁 23 💬 6 📌 1
All Americans I know want to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
All Americans I know would like to see theocracy fall and democracy emerge in Iran.
The debate is not about these objectives but about the most effective means of achieving them.
Is war the best means? I'm skeptical.
I don’t remember Trump talking about military action against Iran on the campaign trail. Or Venezuela. Or Greenland.
28.02.2026 23:25 — 👍 459 🔁 153 💬 20 📌 7
Nearly a year ago, I managed to change the subtitle of my new book to add the phrase--
"the New Global Disorder."
Especially given recent events, glad I did.
www.amazon.com/Autocrats-vs...
I pray that the Iranian people will be liberated from theocratic tyranny and live in freedom and democracy.
I worry that Trump will cut a deal with some new autocratic group minus the Supreme Leader, just like he did in Venezuela.
I'm hoping to be wrong.
I don’t remember Trump talking about military action against Iran on the campaign trail. Or Venezuela. Or Greenland.
28.02.2026 23:25 — 👍 459 🔁 153 💬 20 📌 7
All Americans I know want to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
All Americans I know would like to see theocracy fall and democracy emerge in Iran.
The debate is not about these objectives but about the most effective means of achieving them.
Is war the best means? I'm skeptical.
I was asked in a Q&A this week about Russia’s post-Putin leadership.
Short term? We likely see a Putin 2.0–type successor.
Longer term? History suggests the pendulum swings.
Watch below, or check out McFaul's World on Substack for more:
michaelmcfaul.substack.com/p/recording-...
If you missed my Q+A on Substack earlier today, you can now check out the full recording here: michaelmcfaul.substack.com/p/recording-...
27.02.2026 21:18 — 👍 43 🔁 15 💬 1 📌 0
I'll be doing an Ask Me Anything session today on Substack Live, Friday, 27 February (11am PST / 2pm EST). Check out McFaul's World for more details. See you there! michaelmcfaul.substack.com
27.02.2026 18:00 — 👍 28 🔁 10 💬 0 📌 0
REMINDER: Join me for an Ask Me Anything session today on Substack Live, Friday, 27 February (11am PST / 2pm EST)
michaelmcfaul.substack.com/p/reminder-q...
