@hmikosch.bsky.social
Economist, Researcher
News from #KOF #Nowcasting Lab (nowcastinglab.org):
Reached unexpected "milestone": our #computing processes consumed so many #MATLAB #licenses that entire system came to a halt.
Full story on our #blog:
blognowcastinglab.wordpress.com/2025/07/11/h...
@kofeth.bsky.social @mathworks.bsky.social
#KOF Summer 2025 #Forecast round has started. #Global #macroeconomic #outlook on Monday & #Swiss #economic outlook today.
Top topic (again): How does #trade #conflict affect the #economy in short & long run?
@kofeth.bsky.social
Pictured below: Dr. Alexander Rathke, a master of forecasting
More impressions of the #Meeting of the #AIECE Association of #Economic #Research Institutes this week in #Oslo at Statistics Norway.
16.05.2025 10:34 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Impressions from Day 1 of the #AIECE Association of #Economic #Research Institutes #Meeting in #Oslo at Statistics Norway
Look at the #employment rate of refugees in Poland as compared to #Switzerland and #Germany!
Presentation by Marcin Klucznik (Polish Economic Institute).
@kofeth.bsky.social
#Meeting of the #AIECE Association of #Economic #Research Institutes this week in #Oslo (May, 15-16), hosted by #StatisticsNorway.
Two days packed with #presentations & #discussions on the #macroeconomic #outlook for #Europe and selected structural topics.
@kofeth.bsky.social
#Forecasting #NACE Activities in the #Eurostat Structural Business Statistics
blognowcastinglab.wordpress.com/2025/05/09/n...
Excited to work, joint with Maurizio Daniele, as Experts on behalf of @ec.europa.eu Competence Centre on Composite #Indicators and Scoreboards (JRC-COIN).
#eu #kof #ethz
Another wonderful workshop last week:
#Machine #Learning #Economic #Forecasting and #Nowcasting Workshop
at #Copenhagen Business School organized by @striaukas.bsky.social
Presented on:
An Observation-Driven Mixed-Frequency VAR
Model With Closed-Form Solution
drive.google.com/file/d/1CXzK...
Great to have participated in the
#Macro & #Financial #Econometrics Workshop
at U #Heidelberg organized by Christian Conrad
#research #economics #forecasting @kofeth.bsky.social
Photo impressions below:
Dan Murphy (danpmurphy.com) at @kofeth.bsky.social BB Seminar:
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
#Housing and non-housing #consumption are complements.
#Households in smaller homes save more.
Denser countries → higher #saving, lower #rates.
Thought-provoking #research!
@ethzurich.bsky.social
#KOF #International #Forecasts Spring 2025:
kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts...
#US will grow below potential as #consumer #spending & #investment weaken due to #tariffs & #uncertainty. #Europe eyes #upswing despite tariff threat; #Germany sees #fiscal boost from end 2025. #Risks from tariff #escalation.
Wonderful #Conference on #Real-Time #Data Analysis, #Methods, and Applications in #Prague!!
Thank you Czech National Bank and CERGE-EI for the local organization.
drive.google.com/file/d/1sIZ9...
real-time-economics.org/wp-content/u...
#economics #research #macroeconomics
@kofeth.bsky.social
#Macroeconomic #forecast process at @kofeth.bsky.social started with discussion of #international #economic #outlook.
One key topic: #Fiscal #stimulus plans in #Germany. How much? When? #Multiplier size? --- Will take a while to materialize, but then #growth effects will be strong temporarily.
Interesting #Macro & #Finance #Roundtable by Anjeza Kadilli (HEG) and Reto Cueni (Vontobel)
Franziska Ohnsorge (World Bank) presenting on:
Implications of #Geoeconomic #Fragmentation for Bystanders
cepr.org/publications...
Good discussion among the participants!
#research #policy #geoeconomics
"Wir könnten jetzt in einen regelrechten Handelskrieg geraten" warnt KOF-Ökonom Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social im Beitrag der Tagesschau @SRF angesichts der von den USA erhobenen Zölle gegen Kanada und Mexiko www.srf.ch/play/tv/-/vi...
05.03.2025 08:54 — 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
#Research talk by @iyotzov.bsky.social (BoE) at @kofeth.bsky.social:
How Curvy is the Phillips Curve? - Convex, but only for high #inflation #firms (cf. figure).
www.nber.org/papers/w33234
Thanx @lukashack.bsky.social & @eneabaselgia.bsky.social!
Pic: Ivan, Remo Gurtner & @hmikosch.bsky.social:
Mein erster Post auf #Bluesky:
Was ist von Donald Trumps "Zolldrohstrategie" zu halten?
Hier ein Statement dazu in #SRF 10 vor 10 letzte Woche:
www.srf.ch/play/tv/10-v...
Ein knappes Textmemo zum Thema:
drive.google.com/file/d/1_FTb...
#Zoll #USA #EU #Trump #KOF #ETHZ
