Robert Frey

Jays take Game 4!

Like Game 3, they hit much more groundballs than their opposition, but get the win to even the series!

Here's a side-by-side hitter comparison for both teams.

#WorldSeries #mlbpostseason

What a game! 18 innings that ended on a Freddie Freeman walk-off home run!

The Dodgers faced significantly less splitters than they did in Game 1 and 2 and had as a team a 71.1 average bat speed (one of, if not the highest I've seen this postseason)

#WorldSeries #mlbpostseason

What Dan Wilson’s decision to use Bazardo vs. Springer says about optimal reliever usage Springer's dramatic home run came in his third plate appearance against Bazardo in the ALCS. Is that usage the reason Springer hit a dinger?

Link to Eno's article: www.nytimes.com/athletic/673...

Inspired from article by
Eno Sarris (linked below), I've made some charts on relievers for both teams both by pitch counts and which batters they have faced so far.

So far, only Braydon Fisher has faced a batter twice (Edman and Pages)

#WorldSeries #mlbpostseason

Dodgers even the series!

While Yamamoto was excellent on the mound, the Dodgers offense was lackluster. However, they did manage to put up five runs with an xBA under .200 and an xwOBA under .300.

#mlbpostseason #analytics #WorldSeries

Blue Jays take Game 1 of the Fall Classic with a 9-run outburst in the 6th!

The approach was to stay up the middle, and the .434 xwOBA is no joke.

Kirk provided the most run value, but Bargers' grand slam provided the most on one swing.

#analytics #mlbpostseason #WorldSeries

Thanks to some advice,
I made some adjustments to fielder distances up the middle.

Here's what an optimized position would look like for George Springer (regular + postseason data)

#analytics #mlbpostseason

What an INCREDIBLE series in the ALCS!

I wanted to look particularly at the first six innings of the Jays' hitters vs the last two innings and oh my, what a difference!

In those two innings, the Jays took fewer swings and made contact on 93.8% of pitches with a .574 xwOBA!

We're going to a Game 7!

The Blue Jays swung more, swung it harder, and had their lowest chase rate of their three wins.

They also made the highest contact on fastballs this series in Game 6.

Mariners take a 3-2 series lead in the ALCS! How did they do it? Well they MASHED fastballs!

All of their hits came off of it and there were only TWO whiffs of the 30 swings the M's had on the pitch.

Dodgers SWEEP the series!

What an INCREDIBLE performance from Shohei! He put up more run value in Game 4 than he did the ENTIRE series!

Dodgers take a commanding 3-0 lead!

S/O to their pitching because this report is poor. Only two players had positive run value at the plate and neither were a close to a full run.

Great teams find a way to win.

15 strikeouts, 44% whiff rates?! xBA at .197 and xwOBA at .239?!

Blue Jays even the series!

Comparing to Game 3, they swung less but made more contact and got SIGNIFICANTLY more fastballs! However, that quality of contact was reduced, but the Jays still managed to score 8 runs.

Blue Jays take Game 3 with an EXPLOSIVE offensive output!

Looks like the Jays took more of an opportunity to swing at fastballs in G3, and well, they pumped out 13 runs off of 9 extra base hits with a .483! xwOBA!

Dodgers Take Game 2 and are up 2-0 in the series!

Lot of damage on Fastballs + quality swings led to the output!

Dodgers take Game 1 in a low scoring game!

Only two runs driven in, but the metrics were there, how about a .440 xwOBA and only 10 whiffs the entire game?!

Man, they are going to be a tough team to beat.

The Seattle Mariners Game 1 Hitting Performance Report.

The Seattle Mariners Game 2 Hitting Performance Report.

What an offensive output by the Mariners in Game 2!

Fewer swings and more contact than Game 1, as well as lower whiff rates!

What else is interesting is the overall lower bat speed in Game 2 compared to Game 1!

Mariners take game 1 of the ALCS!

Most of their damage was on fastballs, but look at the whiffs on breaking balls, 11 swings-10 whiffs?!

Brewers win the series and they sure did some damage with a .374 xwOBA and did a ton of damage over the middle of the plate.

What an incredible ALDS between the Mariners and Tigers. The Mariners really showed out by taking pitches, shown by run value.

Trade deadline came and went and here's the 10-highest rest-of-season fWAR projections on trades the week leading up to the deadline.

It's only looking at trade deadline deals in the week leading up to the deadline in a given year.

Since AJ Preller took over as Padres GM, during trade deadline week thru 2024, Preller has traded a total of 56 players to acquire 37 players.

The combined bWAR of those 56 players: 21.4 (0.38 WAR/player)
The combined bWAR of those 37 players: 13.8 (0.37 WAR/player)

So, in the example above, if George Mason replaced James Quinn-Irons with the lowest available bench player on that team, George Mason would win 5.8 less games.

Full calculation and steps are on the Intro page. Could simple WAR be better? Yes of course, but publicly available (key word on publicly) data is hard to come by, especially on the defensive side.

This WAR compares a player to the lowest replacement player on that team.

I have updated the simpleWAR app to include 2025 data! Here's the Top 10 players in sWAR (Runs Created Version) in D1 Baseball in 2025.

#collegebaseball #analytics
robertlfrey.shinyapps.io/simpleWAR/

Happy Draft Day! ICYMI, I built an app that shows each team's drafting tendencies in the Bonus Pool Era (2012-present) by slot, class, and position.

I also built a model to attempt to predict who will go at what pick for the first 43 picks.

#MLBDraft
robertlfrey.shinyapps.io/MLBDraftAnal...

🚨APP ALERT🚨
Presenting the MLB Draft Analytics App! See how teams draft players by pos,class,and slot type from EVERY round in the Bonus Pool Era!

PLUS, I built a model to predict all picks prior to the 2nd round! Check it out!
#MLBDraft
robertlfrey.shinyapps.io/MLBDraftAnal...

🚨APP ALERT🚨
Presenting the MLB Draft Analytics App! See how teams draft players by pos,class,and slot type from EVERY round in the Bonus Pool Era!

PLUS, I built a model to predict all picks prior to the 2nd round! Check it out!
#MLBDraft
robertlfrey.shinyapps.io/MLBDraftAnal...

App is just about done, here's the 2nd feature to it. I built a model that ATTEMPTS to predict who will draft a player at what spot. For example, here's the Top 5 Predicted Picks by the Cardinals at Pick 5.

#MLBDraft #Analytics