Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf

Was im Heizungskeller drin ist, ist Privatsache. Was oben aus dem Schornstein herauskommt selbstverständlich nicht. Es verursacht zunehmende Schäden und gefährdet Gesundheit und Leben, und ist deshalb verbindlich im Pariser Abkommen, in der EU und im deutschen Klimaschutzgesetz geregelt.

Zur Erinnerung: Klimaschutz schützt die Freiheit!
CO2-Emissionen gefährden zunehmend Leben und Gesundheit.
Freiheit im Heizungskeller heißt nicht Freiheit für alles, was aus dem Schornstein kommt - das beeinträchtigt anderer Leute Freiheit.
Bundesverfassungsgericht, Urteil vom 24. März 2021.

Around 6,000 ocean scientists are meeting in Glasgow at the AGU Ocean Sciences Meeting, discussing how fossil-fuel-caused climate change is affecting sea levels, ocean currents and life in our oceans. #OSM26

Wärmepumpen-Schlacht in Europa: Chinas greift jetzt auch wie bei Solar und E-Autos an Genauso wie bei Solar und Elektroautos will China auch die Wärmepumpenbranche dominieren. Dazu gibt es ein Strategiepapier der chinesischen Regierung. Die heimische Branche warnt jetzt die Politik.

Die chinesische Regierung hat verstanden: die künftige Wirtschaft wird entweder klimaneutral oder gar nicht sein. Sie setzt darauf, bei der Transformation zum klimaneutralen Wirtschaften vorne dabei zu sein. Gut für den Klimaschutz!
www.t-online.de/heim-garten/...

The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements—a review The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements—a review, Ritchie, Paul D L, Steinert, Norman J, Abrams, Jesse F, Alkhayuon, Hassan, Arnscheidt, Constantin W, Bochow, Nils, Chapman, Ruth R, Clarke, Joseph, Dennis, Donovan P, Donges, Jonathan F, Flores, Bernardo M, Garbe, Julius, Högner, Annika, Huntingford, Chris, Lenton, Timothy M, Lohmann, Johannes, Lux-Gottschalk, Kerstin, Milkoreit, Manjana, Möller, Tessa, Pearce-Kelly, Paul, Pereira, Laura, Quinn, Courtney, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Stuenzi, Simone M, Swingedouw, Didier, Van der Laan, Larissa N, Zickfeld, Kirsten, Wunderling, Nico

Review of how “minimising the magnitude and duration” of overshooting 1.5C could decrease the risk of surpassing climate tipping points

#climatecrisis
HT @carbonbrief.org
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

Channel 4 News on #AMOC monitoring! 🌊

Als ich meinen Heizungsbauer damals nach einer Wärmepumpe gefragt habe, meinte er nur: nehmen sie doch einfach wieder einen Gaskessel! Er konnte offenbar keine Wärmepumpe anbieten. Ich musste den Installateur wechseln. Geht sicher vielen so.

🆕 study: Global warming must stay below 2°C and return to 1.5°C as quickly as possible to reduce tipping point risks. In the long term, temperatures must cool to 1°C above pre-industrial levels, researchers from @exeter.ac.uk, @cicero.oslo.no and PIK find.
www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...

Auch interessant: Hausbesitzer in Deutschland haben eine klare Präferenz für die Wärmepumpe. (Als Physiker heize ich meinen Altbau natürlich auch damit.)
Ob wohl manche darunter zunächst auch auf die unsägliche “Habecks Heizhammer” Kampagne hereingefallen sind?
www.wiwo.de/technologie/...

YouTube video by ClimateAdam Climate Scientist Reacts to AI Overlords

Quite an eye-opening video about the tech bros by the inimitable ClimateAdam. Watch it. youtu.be/py0XpKxAnNU

On #PolarVortex instability science and the increase of Arctic cold air outbreaks, I posted a thread a while ago which was from Twitter as it was from 2021.
I just remembered there is actually this version of it outside X, so here it is:
threadreaderapp.com/thread/13620...

Every politician considering slowing down climate solutions, like the renewables, electric vehicle or heat pump rollout, needs to be fully informed what is at stake and what risks they are taking.
It is often compared to a ship sailing into uncharted waters with dangerous rocks below the surface.

Global Tipping Points | understanding risks & their potential impact Harmful tipping points in the natural world threaten humanity by disrupting life support systems and societal stability.

What do tipping points mean for climate policy?
Climate change won't be smooth.
Delay reaching emission targets by a few years, and you might not just get slightly worse climate impacts.
You may unwittingly cross a line for unstoppable, massive changes.
global-tipping-points.org

Climate risk becomes a matter of security The destabilisation of the #AMOC is no longer a distant scenario - it’s a national and global security risk. Iceland’s Climate Minister Jóhann Páll Jóhannsson and I outline actions to tackle this thre...

If you haven't read this yet, pin it to your feed - take it to yr elected representatives. And to others'.

Thanks Johan Rockström & Jóhann Páll Jóhannsson for making this crystal clear to all who must act on it.
#AMOC #tippingpoints @pik-potsdam.bsky.social @euiniceland.bsky.social

bit.ly/4qyIMsZ

As one example, longer-term past #AMOC evolution has been reconstructred by analysing heat content and temperature changes in the subtropical and tropical Atlantic at mid-depth, which correlates with #AMOC strength:
www.nature.com/articles/s43...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

YouTube video by Channel 4 News Collapse of this Atlantic current could change Europe's climate forever

Great Channel 4 News report on the latest #AMOC monitoring.
"Trouble is: there is now growing scientific consensus that the AMOC is weakening."
@noc.ac.uk
youtu.be/JpOpsMOBsL4?...

Klimawandel „höhlt Fundament der EU aus“: EU-Expert*innen fordern Anpassung an 3 Grad Erderhitzung Der wissenschaftliche Klimabeirat der EU fordert eine einheitliche Strategie zur Klimaanpassung. Die werde aber ohne Klimaschutz nicht ausreichen.

Stürme, Überschwemmungen und Hitze werden mit zunehmender Erderhitzung häufiger und heftiger. Während die globale Durchschnittstemperatur seit Beginn der Industrialisierung um etwa 1,4 Grad gestiegen ist, ist Europa ungefähr 2,4 Grad heißer geworden.
Leugnen bringt’s nicht.
www.taz.de/!6154994

Dieses Urteil ist ein Sieg für den deutschen Klimaschutz Kommt jetzt das Tempolimit?

Nicht nur wir Bürger, auch die Politiker müssen die geltenden Gesetze einhalten. Zu den wichtigen Errungenschaften des demokratischen Rechtsstaats gehört es, dass dies notfalls auch vor Gericht eingeklagt werden kann.
Leider beim Klimaschutz immer wieder nötig.
perspective-daily.de/article/4152...

I also have often made this observation stated below: the arguments of the deniers of human-caused climate change are so poor, so easily refuted, and intended only for gullible lay people, that they basically prove how strong and compelling the evidence for human-caused climate change really is.

Wir befinden uns in einem dramatischen Wettlauf gegen die Zeit, die schlimmsten Klimafolgen (Verlust von vielen Küstenstädten, Hungersnöte, Konflikte, Kipppunkte etc.) noch abzuwenden, und die Politik macht…
Bislang hat die Wissenschaft die Klimaerwärmung korrekt vorhergesagt.

Diagram showing absorption spectra of the most important greenhouse gases (water vapour, CO2, methane, etc.) with % absorption on the y-axis, and wavelength on the x-axis (logarithmic). Someone has gone through and drawn heavy black X's over all the peaks on the longwave part of the spectrum (to the right of the visible wavelengths). Above that is the overall atmospheric absorption peak pattern, and above that is the graph for energy intensity of emissions and the different wavelengths, shown for solar radiation at 5525 K (orange) and radiation emitted by the Earth to space at 210-310 K (blue). The peaks are widely separated. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_window

For his next trick, Trump's going to spend the rest of the day deleting greenhouse gas absorption bands with a Sharpie! Maybe he can open the atmospheric window wide enough to cool the planet -- thank you for your attention to this matter, Mr. President!

AGU Denounces Trump Administration’s Repeal of the EPA Endangerment Finding In 1856, American scientist Eunice Foote made history by publishing the first academic paper demonstrating that carbon dioxide traps heat from the Sun, a discovery that laid the foundation for climate...

The American Geophysical Union unequivocally condemns this reckless and senseless decision.

AGU is a global community supporting more than half a million advocates and professionals in the Earth and space sciences.

fromtheprow.agu.org/agu-denounce...

courtesy of the same Trumpian math that promises a 1500% reduction in prescription drug prices...

One major rule anchored U.S. climate policy. The EPA just threw it out The Trump administration rescinded the 2009 “endangerment finding,” ending regulation of greenhouse gases from cars and trucks

🤯🤯🤯 Full-on denial of reality.
State capture by the fossil fuel lobby.
The US descends into a banana republic. It would almost be funny if the consequences wouldn’t be so dire for billions of humans, if the courts don’t stop this folly soon.

www.scientificamerican.com/article/epa-...

Earth’s Climate May Go from Greenhouse to Hothouse - Eos Uncertainty in climate models could mean Earth systems are perilously close to their tipping points, scientists warn.

Uncertainty is not your friend: In a new paper published in One Earth, scientists argue that uncertainties in climate projections mean Earth system components could be at a higher risk than we think of reaching crucial tipping points. 🌊
eos.org/articles/ear...

New study looks at extreme Greenland melting events over 1950–2023:
- Seven of the ten most extreme events occurred after 2000.
- Future projections under high-emission scenarios suggest that extreme meltwater anomalies could increase by up to +372% by 2100.
🌊
www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Die Wahrheit: Tagebuch einer Wutrednerin: Parkwahn Tagebuch einer Wutrednerin: Kein Wunder, dass in Berlin bei Eisglätte nicht gestreut wird, mit den Anwohnerparkgebühren kommt keine Kohle herein.

Unfassbar aber wahr: 0,028 Cent pro Tag.
www.taz.de/!6153635

Most people don’t know this: Heat pumps REDUCE gas consumption even if running 100% on electricity from a gas fired power plant.

More here in my piece for @carbonbrief.org👇

interactive.carbonbrief.org/factcheck/he...

How a warming planet could turn Iceland into a glacier The disruption of a current that carries heat north from the tropics would make much of the world hotter while turning Iceland into “one giant glacier.”

"In October, the government classified the AMOC collapse as a national security risk. It amounts to a reckoning with national survival."
And a major #AMOC change would seriously impact the world at large, even the tropics - not just Iceland. 🌊
www.adn.com/nation-world...

The beautiful white village of Grazalema (Andalusia, Spain) had already been evacuated because of terrible amounts of rain. January had 1295 mm, an all-time high monthly total. But after today's 140 mm (and counting), February now already stands at 1169 mm, that's 510 mm (78%) more than ever before!