@rahmstorf.bsky.social
Climate scientist, professor of Physics of the Oceans in Potsdam. Opinions my own.
And of course there’s the extra sea-level rise, by half a meter or more. bsky.app/profile/rahm...
22.11.2025 05:55 — 👍 42 🔁 10 💬 0 📌 0Many people think about cold in Northern Europe if the Atlantic Ocean current system #AMOC fails. But that wouldn’t be the only problem for Europe by far.
This new study shows that severe drought is another one. 🌊
Hey Murdoch fake-news media! The study you report on here
1. Predicts nothing but is about the past.
2. Is not about Gulf Stream but #AMOC.
3. An AMOC collapse wouldn’t cause an Ice Age.
Incompetence or intent to confuse?
The study by Ren et al shows AMOC has weakened: www.nature.com/articles/s43...
While the Reuters report says an AMOC shutdown "could trigger a modern-day ice age", this is not what we scientists call an ice age. Rather, it is a regional cooling, plus other severe impacts on sea level, rainfall patterns, weather extremes, marine ecosystems and ocean carbon uptake.
18.11.2025 10:57 — 👍 111 🔁 9 💬 2 📌 1
Iceland Climate Minister Johannsson: "It is a direct threat to our national resilience and security. (This) is the first time a specific climate-related phenomenon has been formally brought before the National Security Council as a potential existential threat."
www.reuters.com/sustainabili...
A funny postscript: when I was a young postdoc in the 1990s I was told by a professor that using colour graphics wasn't serious science.
And that only bad scientists speak to journalists.
A little reminder of science history: air temperature change after a shutdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation #AMOC, as simulated in climate models 36 years apart.
Suki Manabe went on to win the physics Nobel prize in 2021 jointly with his colleagues Klaus Hasselmann and Giorgio Parisi.
I wouldn't board an aircraft, a bus, a train, a ship or even get in a car that had a 5% chance of crashing. Now AMOC collapse is closing in on over 25% probability we are all being boarded to a mad future.
Excellent eye opener of a presentation. Educate yourself, watch it.
youtu.be/ULJXqOZuY-8
I found the link for your article mentioned at the end of your presentation, which details further possible consequences of AMOC shutdown. Thank you for your hard work.
tos.org/oceanography...
The government of Iceland now considers this a national security threat. www.arctictoday.com/iceland-sees...
And the Foreign Intelligence Service of Germany together with other German institutions published a National Climate Risk Assessment this year.
Here is what it says about #AMOC tipping risk.
Is the Atlantic Ocean circulation close to tipping?
Hear the latest science as I presented it last month at the ATLAS25 event in Helsinki.
Let me know if anything is unclear, or if you see good reasons why your government shouldn't immediately act on this. 🌊
youtu.be/ULJXqOZuY-8
Starke Rede, danke auch für die Quellen!
Hier ein direkt klickbarer Link:
www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/FFFD...
#Klimakatastrophe #UK now:
#flood #storm #uk #claudiastorm #wales #birmingham #nottingham
A powerful surge of heavy rain from Storm Claudia has swept across the United Kingdom, triggering widespread flooding from Wales to the Midlands.
youtu.be/XfObiOczPA8?...
In 2024, renewable energy accounted for over 90% of global power capacity expansion. That is because it makes economic sense. IRENA_DAT_RE_Capacity_Highlights_2025-1.pdf
16.11.2025 11:22 — 👍 435 🔁 128 💬 11 📌 6
All nations committed under the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5 degC for good reason. Instead many governments are beholden to the fossil fuel lobby and even subsidize fossil fuel use with your money. We’re now at 1.4 degC & emissions are rising not falling.
unfccc.int/process-and-...
“If we wait to cross tipping points before we act, it will be too late. The only credible risk management strategy is to act in advance.”
global-tipping-points.org/the-dartingt...
Der Tagessspiegel über meine gestrige Rede in Berlin:
www.tagesspiegel.de/berlin/klima...
Die 45 Grad beziehen sich natürlich auf extreme Hitze: heute bis 39 Grad, künftig durchaus bis 45 Grad.
Mein Redetext (pdf) mit Links zu den Quellen: www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/FFFDemo_Rede_Berlin_Rahmstorf.pdf
We have reached 1.4 degrees celsius #globalheating according to NASA data (smooth black trend line). Breaching 1.5 is now inevitable. From now on the fight is to keep overshoot as small and short as possible.
15.11.2025 13:41 — 👍 279 🔁 113 💬 9 📌 13
Berlin!
14.11.2025 17:06 — 👍 158 🔁 33 💬 1 📌 0
30 years COP - do your job!
14.11.2025 16:57 — 👍 437 🔁 108 💬 6 📌 6
Ist jeder Mensch in der Bundesregierung sich dieser immensen Verantwortung bewusst? Frage für meine Kinder.
14.11.2025 14:16 — 👍 253 🔁 101 💬 23 📌 3
In Sonntagsreden angeblich hinter dem Pariser Klimaabkommen stehen, aber in den Taten die Abrissbirne am Klimaschutz ansetzen?
Heute könnt ihr zeigen, was ihr davon haltet, in Berlin und vielen weiteren Orten. Die Mehrheit der Menschen will mehr Klimaschutz!
table.media/berlin/news/...
Scientific sources to check yourself:
Holocene: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Extremes: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Sea level: www.nature.com/articles/s43...
Tipping points: global-tipping-points.org
Never forget: At breakneck speed we are leaving the stable Holocene climate in which human society developed and thrived. Weather extremes are outside historical experience. Sea-level rise is accelerating. Dangerous tipping points are ahead.
Graph: ed-hawkins.github.io/climate-visu...
Übrigens sind auch deutliche Mehrheiten bereit dazu, 1% ihres Einkommens für Klimaschutz zu bezahlen:
"And 69% said they would be willing to contribute at least 1% of their income to tackle climate change."
ourworldindata.org/climate-chan...
Das wird immer wieder weltweit bestätigt, hier aktuell bei uns in 🇩🇪: die Mehrheit der Menschen wünscht sich mehr Klimaschutz!
Denn wir haben die Lösungen, aber wir verlieren gerade den Wettlauf gegen die Zeit für eine lebenswerte Zukunft.
table.media/berlin/news/...
Und vielen anderen Städten!
10.11.2025 23:19 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 2 📌 0
I think that this @natgeosci.nature.com paper—now published in the November issue of this journal—is worth checking out:
doi.org/10.1038/s415...
🧪 ⚒️ 🦣 🌊
#PaleoSky
Am Freitag könnt ihr die vielen Menschen unterstützen, die sich derzeit beim Klimagipfel #COP30 in Belém für unsere Zukunft einsetzen - und auch ein Signal an die Bundesregierung senden. Jede Verzögerung von Klimaschutz kostet viel Geld, Glaubwürdigkeit, Menschenleben, Zukunft.
10.11.2025 23:10 — 👍 171 🔁 75 💬 9 📌 3
“Wir in Deutschland importieren fossile Brennstoffe für mehr als 80 Milliarden Euro pro Jahr. Das ist buchstäblich verbranntes Geld.
Sogar in Deutschland verkaufen sich Wärmepumpen, allen Kampagnen, aller Desinformation zum Trotz, längst besser als Gasheizungen.”
www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft...
