Jeff Asher

NOPD didn't report 2024 crime counts to the FBI as far as I can tell.🤷‍♂️

Reminder for those using the FBI's Crime Data Explorer: murder does not surge every December, it just looks that way because some agencies report data once a year and don't break down by month.

!!!

It took about 20 min for them to add it past their 10 AM CT deadline

Speaking of revisions, the FBI made some in their estimates of crime counts going back 20 years. It's a totally normal part of the process though the revisions have grown in the last few releases. Doesn't change the trends an iota. Here's how murder counts stacked up this year compared to last:

And here are the corresponding graphs.

Of note, the FBI announced plans to start releasing monthly data later this month. It will be...interesting...as the data will be unaudited. It should hopefully fit seamlessly into the RTCI and greatly improve our ability to know the nation's crime trends.

Murder Officially Plunged in 2024 That and more takeaways from the FBI's 2024 Reported Crime in the Nation report.

New data from the FBI: Murder fell 15% in 2024, the fastest drop ever recorded & violent/property crime rates fell to levels not seen since the 1960s. Murder returned to pre-COVID levels in 2024 & is may be the lowest level ever recorded in 2025.

jasher.substack.com/p/murder-off...

Still waiting for the actual data to come out, but the FBI reported that murder fell by 14.9% in 2024 while violent crime and property crime fell by 4.5% and 8.1% respectively. More shortly.

The FBI will release hate crimes data for 2024 today so here are some reminders that hate crimes data is a mess and shouldn't be taken at face value for the most part.

www.lawfaremedia.org/article/why-...

jasher.substack.com/p/hate-crime...

a man in a suit and tie is standing in front of a crowd of people . ALT: a man in a suit and tie is standing in front of a crowd of people .

Happy Crime Data Release Day to those who celebrate

I would know 90% less about this admin's scandals if not for these vague press releases.

When the humans only give you a 5 inch opening to spy on the neighbors

Who says the internet was a mistake?

New this week: Overall theft is plunging in America, but reported shopliftings are rising. I looked into whether that's because of more frequent reporting, NIBRS-related coding changes, or more of these crimes actually occurring (or all three).

jasher.substack.com/p/why-are-re...

Would also watch

Would watch this, TBH

Also, the FBI comes out with its 2024 data tomorrow (allegedly), so I'll have a recap of that when it's out.

New this week: Overall theft is plunging in America, but reported shopliftings are rising. I looked into whether that's because of more frequent reporting, NIBRS-related coding changes, or more of these crimes actually occurring (or all three).

jasher.substack.com/p/why-are-re...

Jeff Duncan: My list of the 10 greatest sports moments in Superdome history I could have easily listed 50 moments.

Great list though Hakeim Drops The Ball deserves a spot. I was at 6, 4 and 1

www.nola.com/sports/saint...

Also I guess it's is why I'm at least optimistic that this moment too shall pass.

Millennials Are Richer Now. So Why Can’t They Stop Worrying? A generation who came of age during the 2007-09 recession—and then lived through the Covid-19 pandemic—remains anxious.

I was 18 on 9/11, 22 when Katrina struck, 25 and just out of grad school during the GFC, and a new parent potty training triplets during COVID quarantine. The impermanence of everything feels part of my generation's DNA at this point.
www.wsj.com/personal-fin...

Nationals outscored the Brewers 7-1 in the 9th inning this weekend, so they've got that going with them.

Jeff-alytics | Jeff Asher | Substack I write about crime, data, and crime data. Come join, it'll be fun! Click to read Jeff-alytics, by Jeff Asher, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

I picked up a bunch of new followers this week, so they should come check out my newsletter! This week will be a big one with the FBI releasing its 2024 crime data on Tuesday morning.

jasher.substack.com

Bad Guys 2 >>>
Bad Guys 1 though I found several of the plot points to be highly implausible.

What did parents do before they could turn their phone's brightness way down and read for 2 hours during Bad Guys 2?

The 7 scariest words in the English language:

(Spoilers)

When Leo got shot somebody in the theatre screamed -- like top of his lungs -- "OH SHIT"

Lol!