Jason Coupet

Jason Coupet

@professajay.bsky.social

Towards a big, efficient public sector that serves the least of us. Associate Professor of Public Management and Policy at the Andrew Young School. United Campus Workers of Georgia. Father of 3. Chicago southsider. Proud 〽️ichigan alum. 🏀 nut.

6,632 Followers 1,810 Following 1,016 Posts Joined Jul 2023
11 hours ago

You cannot tell voters (accurately) this is a fascist regime that is hell bent on destroying us - let alone rely on it (as Dems are) as your GOTV while also voting yourselves to enable the regime.

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21 hours ago

If you find the assault on USAID and accountability infuriating, please join me today at 4.30 EST as I interview the former Inspector General of USAID, Paul Martin today, either in person (in Ann Arbor) or live streaming. Details:
fordschool.umich.edu/event/2026/t...

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15 hours ago

ok so sorry more posting about AI and academia because I evidently I have a bug up my ass about this today: imo pre-registration needs to become even more widespread and basically de facto mandatory, because LLMs are basically HARK machines. Which means it needs to be easier to do.

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2 days ago

Also what a sick sick man. He was wealthy while she was working class. He extorted HER.

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2 days ago

Big bro’s teammates are dead pull so he got *lots* of action. He got a good 35-40 minutes in in left today, this after his *own* two practice. Pretty good way to work on tracking the ball and learning to hit the cut off man! Baby siblings benefit so much from their older siblings man. It’s not fair!

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2 days ago
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My 5yo is pretty good at baseball for his age. The biggest reason for that he came out of the womb obsessed with sports, but not far behind that reason is his big brother. Case in point was today where big bro’s 10u travel team was a man short so he got some time in left right behind big bro at 3rd.

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3 days ago

The DOJ released evidence, which the FBI deemed credible, that the President of the United States sexually and physically assaulted a 13 year old girl AND she was afraid to talk about it because Trump would kill her—and it’s somehow not the biggest scandal in American history?

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2 days ago

And declines in student achievement among Hispanic and Spanish-speaking students, both U.S. and foreign born.

www.nber.org/papers/w34452

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3 days ago
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Fuzzy memories and hard facts: An SC accuser's claims against Epstein, Trump examined An alleged victim of Jeffrey Epstein gave FBI agents true accounts of her time growing up in SC. Claims she made about Donald Trump remain unsubstantiated.

Breaking: SC newspaper verifies portions of Trump accuser's story. Textbook journalism. Local journalism. Support your local news outlets. www.postandcourier.com/news/epstein...

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5 days ago

This seems very very bad. I haven’t finished reading but it looks like his candidacy should be done.

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6 days ago

“If we too want to occupy the White House, we clearly need a deeply unpopular openly corrupt violently racist backstabbing off putting orange piece of shit of our own.”

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6 days ago

💯

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6 days ago

And there’s more! It hasn’t stopped since Rahm’s left office: prospect.org/2024/11/19/2...

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6 days ago

it was commonly thought that the way you got a charter school approved was to make donations or gifts to Rahm’s campaign or those he favored.

Hilariously, well after I heard this was how it worked, the heads of both of the largest charter school networks *and* his public School CEO went to prison.

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6 days ago

*Especially* Mississippi. This place bears the brunt of so many jokes but working class Mississippians are folks than for generations have lived under the thumb of a deeply corrupt provincial ruling class that represses news, education, health, and every bit of their well being. Support these folks.

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6 days ago

When Rahm was mayor and facing an election threat from Chuy Garcia, I was in a coffee shop in a progressive black neighborhood when two black CPD officers walked in and whispered to a pastor that orders came down to tow cars near the local polling place on election day. I got so many stories bro.

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6 days ago
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Exclusive: US investigation points to likely US responsibility in Iran school strike, sources say U.S. military investigators believe it is likely that U.S. forces were responsible for an apparent strike on an Iranian girls' school that killed scores of children on Saturday but have not yet reache...

"US investigation points to likely US responsibility in Iran school strike, sources say"

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6 days ago

Thanks!

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6 days ago
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The flyer for my Chicago street gang study is done! Word to Kyla on my research team, the coolest undergrad Econ student ever!

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6 days ago

Siblings are so different from each other yo, each child has introduced an entire different dimension into our home. My oldest won 7th grade Ms. STEM Atlanta, my middle kid won the state social studies fair, and the 5yo is so good at baseball he’s playing 2 years up in the city’s hardest league.

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6 days ago

Lol nope, I’ve tried so many times to remember

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6 days ago

When I was 15 I got invited to testify at an Illinois state senate hearing on how middle income households were dealing with rising tuition and got into a loud extended shouting match with a state senator who tried to cut me off. It got covered on the news.

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6 days ago

Haaaaard same here man. Behavior I just don’t get.

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1 week ago
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Solidarity to the NYU faculty members as they prepare to strike.

University leadership must offer a deal that meets the moment: Stronger job security, higher wages, and academic freedom protections.

NYU, it’s time to give CFU-UAW a fair contract and also pay your RAs!

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1 week ago
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“There’s no Somali folks in the Epstein Files”

Welp

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1 week ago

💯

This is 12 thousand percent why any politician or pundit (cough yglesias cough cough) arguing for that democrats should take immoral policy positions because of focused grouped mass public opinion has it backwards.

Public opinion is *shaped* by mass politics. It’s not exogenous dumbass.

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1 week ago

lol he must have dropped an n bomb lol

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1 week ago

Peace out!

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1 week ago

Lolll

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11 months ago
This essay provides an overview of statistical methods in public policy, focused primarily on the United States. I trace the historical development of quantitative approaches in policy research, from early ad hoc applications through the 19th and early 20th centuries, to the full institutionalization of statistical analysis in federal, state, local, and nonprofit agencies by the late 20th century. I then outline three core methodological approaches to policy-centered statistical research across social science disciplines: description, explanation, and prediction, framing each in terms of the focus of the analysis. In descriptive work, researchers explore what exists and examine any variable of interest to understand their different distributions and relationships. In explanatory work, researchers ask why does it exist and how can it be influenced. The focus of the analysis is on explanatory variables (X) to either (1) accurately estimate their relationship with an outcome variable (Y), or (2) causally attribute the effect of specific explanatory variables on outcomes. In predictive work, researchers as what will happen next and focus on the outcome variable (Y) and on generating accurate forecasts, classifications, and predictions from new data. For each approach, I examine key techniques, their applications in policy contexts, and important methodological considerations. I then consider critical perspectives on quantitative policy analysis framed around issues related to a three-part “data imperative” where governments are driven to count, gather, and learn from data. Each of these imperatives entail substantial issues related to privacy, accountability, democratic participation, and epistemic inequalities—issues at odds with public sector values of transparency and openness. I conclude by identifying some emerging trends in public sector-focused data science, inclusive ethical guidelines, open research practices, and future directions for the field. 	Description	Explanation	Prediction
General question	What exists?	Why does it exist? How can it be influenced?	What will happen next?
Focus of analysis	Focus is on any variable—understanding different variables and their distributions and relationships	Focus is on X —understanding the relationship between X and Y, often with an emphasis on causality	Focus is on Y —forecasting or estimating the value of Y based on X, often without concern for causal mechanisms
Names for variable of interest	—		Explanatory variable
	Independent variable
	Predictor variable
	Covariate		Outcome variable
	Dependent variable
	Response variable
Goal of analysis	Summarize and explore data to identify patterns, trends, and relationships	Estimation: Test hypotheses or theories and make inferences about the relationship between one or more X variables and Y
 
Causal attribution: A special form of estimating—make inferences about the causal relationship between a single X of interest and Y through credible causal assumptions and identification strategies	Generate accurate predictions; maximize the amount of explainable variation in Y while minimizing prediction error
Evaluation criteria	—	Confidence/credible intervals, coefficient significance, effect sizes, and theoretical consistency	Metrics like root mean square error (RMSE) and R^2; out-of-sample performance
Typical approaches	Univariate summary statistics like the mean, median, variance, and standard deviation; multivariate summary statistics like correlations and cross-tabulations	t-tests, proportion tests, multivariate regression models; for causal attribution, careful identification through experiments, quasi-experiments, and other methods with observational data	Multivariate regression models; more complex black-box approaches like machine learning and ensemble models Table of contents
Introduction
Brief history of statistics in public policy
Core methodological approaches
Description
Explanation
Prediction
The pitfalls of counting, gathering, and learning from public data
Future directions
References

New preprint! A general overview of stats in public policy research with this (oversimplified but still helpful) separation of methods into description, explanation, and prediction #policysky

HTML/PDF: stats.andrewheiss.com/snoopy-spring/
SocArXiv: doi.org/10.31235/osf...

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