Jason Coupet

Also what a sick sick man. He was wealthy while she was working class. He extorted HER.

Big bro’s teammates are dead pull so he got *lots* of action. He got a good 35-40 minutes in in left today, this after his *own* two practice. Pretty good way to work on tracking the ball and learning to hit the cut off man! Baby siblings benefit so much from their older siblings man. It’s not fair!

My 5yo is pretty good at baseball for his age. The biggest reason for that he came out of the womb obsessed with sports, but not far behind that reason is his big brother. Case in point was today where big bro’s 10u travel team was a man short so he got some time in left right behind big bro at 3rd.

The DOJ released evidence, which the FBI deemed credible, that the President of the United States sexually and physically assaulted a 13 year old girl AND she was afraid to talk about it because Trump would kill her—and it’s somehow not the biggest scandal in American history?

And declines in student achievement among Hispanic and Spanish-speaking students, both U.S. and foreign born.

www.nber.org/papers/w34452

Fuzzy memories and hard facts: An SC accuser's claims against Epstein, Trump examined An alleged victim of Jeffrey Epstein gave FBI agents true accounts of her time growing up in SC. Claims she made about Donald Trump remain unsubstantiated.

Breaking: SC newspaper verifies portions of Trump accuser's story. Textbook journalism. Local journalism. Support your local news outlets. www.postandcourier.com/news/epstein...

This seems very very bad. I haven’t finished reading but it looks like his candidacy should be done.

“If we too want to occupy the White House, we clearly need a deeply unpopular openly corrupt violently racist backstabbing off putting orange piece of shit of our own.”

💯

And there’s more! It hasn’t stopped since Rahm’s left office: prospect.org/2024/11/19/2...

it was commonly thought that the way you got a charter school approved was to make donations or gifts to Rahm’s campaign or those he favored.

Hilariously, well after I heard this was how it worked, the heads of both of the largest charter school networks *and* his public School CEO went to prison.

*Especially* Mississippi. This place bears the brunt of so many jokes but working class Mississippians are folks than for generations have lived under the thumb of a deeply corrupt provincial ruling class that represses news, education, health, and every bit of their well being. Support these folks.

When Rahm was mayor and facing an election threat from Chuy Garcia, I was in a coffee shop in a progressive black neighborhood when two black CPD officers walked in and whispered to a pastor that orders came down to tow cars near the local polling place on election day. I got so many stories bro.

Exclusive: US investigation points to likely US responsibility in Iran school strike, sources say U.S. military investigators believe it is likely that U.S. forces were responsible for an apparent strike on an Iranian girls' school that killed scores of children on Saturday but have not yet reache...

"US investigation points to likely US responsibility in Iran school strike, sources say"

Thanks!

The flyer for my Chicago street gang study is done! Word to Kyla on my research team, the coolest undergrad Econ student ever!

Siblings are so different from each other yo, each child has introduced an entire different dimension into our home. My oldest won 7th grade Ms. STEM Atlanta, my middle kid won the state social studies fair, and the 5yo is so good at baseball he’s playing 2 years up in the city’s hardest league.

Lol nope, I’ve tried so many times to remember

When I was 15 I got invited to testify at an Illinois state senate hearing on how middle income households were dealing with rising tuition and got into a loud extended shouting match with a state senator who tried to cut me off. It got covered on the news.

Haaaaard same here man. Behavior I just don’t get.

Solidarity to the NYU faculty members as they prepare to strike.

University leadership must offer a deal that meets the moment: Stronger job security, higher wages, and academic freedom protections.

NYU, it’s time to give CFU-UAW a fair contract and also pay your RAs!

“There’s no Somali folks in the Epstein Files”

Welp

💯

This is 12 thousand percent why any politician or pundit (cough yglesias cough cough) arguing for that democrats should take immoral policy positions because of focused grouped mass public opinion has it backwards.

Public opinion is *shaped* by mass politics. It’s not exogenous dumbass.

lol he must have dropped an n bomb lol

Peace out!

Lolll

This essay provides an overview of statistical methods in public policy, focused primarily on the United States. I trace the historical development of quantitative approaches in policy research, from early ad hoc applications through the 19th and early 20th centuries, to the full institutionalization of statistical analysis in federal, state, local, and nonprofit agencies by the late 20th century. I then outline three core methodological approaches to policy-centered statistical research across social science disciplines: description, explanation, and prediction, framing each in terms of the focus of the analysis. In descriptive work, researchers explore what exists and examine any variable of interest to understand their different distributions and relationships. In explanatory work, researchers ask why does it exist and how can it be influenced. The focus of the analysis is on explanatory variables (X) to either (1) accurately estimate their relationship with an outcome variable (Y), or (2) causally attribute the effect of specific explanatory variables on outcomes. In predictive work, researchers as what will happen next and focus on the outcome variable (Y) and on generating accurate forecasts, classifications, and predictions from new data. For each approach, I examine key techniques, their applications in policy contexts, and important methodological considerations. I then consider critical perspectives on quantitative policy analysis framed around issues related to a three-part “data imperative” where governments are driven to count, gather, and learn from data. Each of these imperatives entail substantial issues related to privacy, accountability, democratic participation, and epistemic inequalities—issues at odds with public sector values of transparency and openness. I conclude by identifying some emerging trends in public sector-focused data science, inclusive ethical guidelines, open research practices, and future directions for the field.

Description Explanation Prediction General question What exists? Why does it exist? How can it be influenced? What will happen next? Focus of analysis Focus is on any variable—understanding different variables and their distributions and relationships Focus is on X —understanding the relationship between X and Y, often with an emphasis on causality Focus is on Y —forecasting or estimating the value of Y based on X, often without concern for causal mechanisms Names for variable of interest — Explanatory variable Independent variable Predictor variable Covariate Outcome variable Dependent variable Response variable Goal of analysis Summarize and explore data to identify patterns, trends, and relationships Estimation: Test hypotheses or theories and make inferences about the relationship between one or more X variables and Y Causal attribution: A special form of estimating—make inferences about the causal relationship between a single X of interest and Y through credible causal assumptions and identification strategies Generate accurate predictions; maximize the amount of explainable variation in Y while minimizing prediction error Evaluation criteria — Confidence/credible intervals, coefficient significance, effect sizes, and theoretical consistency Metrics like root mean square error (RMSE) and R^2; out-of-sample performance Typical approaches Univariate summary statistics like the mean, median, variance, and standard deviation; multivariate summary statistics like correlations and cross-tabulations t-tests, proportion tests, multivariate regression models; for causal attribution, careful identification through experiments, quasi-experiments, and other methods with observational data Multivariate regression models; more complex black-box approaches like machine learning and ensemble models

Table of contents Introduction Brief history of statistics in public policy Core methodological approaches Description Explanation Prediction The pitfalls of counting, gathering, and learning from public data Future directions References

New preprint! A general overview of stats in public policy research with this (oversimplified but still helpful) separation of methods into description, explanation, and prediction #policysky

HTML/PDF: stats.andrewheiss.com/snoopy-spring/
SocArXiv: doi.org/10.31235/osf...

These mfs are abusing kids, on purpose spreading diseases, and insider trading on mass murder and klan kidnappings. If by some miracle there is an election that democrats win and a transfer of power they all need to be tried. It’s also clear there’s a wing of the democrats don’t want that.

When this ICE shit started, a mutual I’d never met asked how to help. I sent him to a friend’s kid’s preschool that was struggling to find patrollers. He’s been there almost daily, even in brutal cold, at a school where he didn’t know anyone, to keep folks safe. We finally met and got beers tonight.

I hope you aren’t drunk and took your staff’s advice, Rashida and I don’t know this man and feel confident he didn’t care about us. Please restrain from drinking too much as you have been warned from your staff and stay off social media when you are drunk. I pray in his holy month you find peace and respect for your self,

uhhh oh my god