Hetav Rojan

Solution needed: Suweida’s ceasefire is a pause, not peace The guns may have fallen silent but in Syria's Druze-dominated southern city, they have enforced the status quo. That is dangerous, since it fails to recognise that Syria has now fundamentally changed

My latest argues that the ceasefire may have stopped the shooting, but it’s no return to normal. Syria has changed at its core, and without tackling the underlying causes, this calm won’t hold. en.majalla.com/node/326545/...

Quick backdrop: Iraq halted oil exports via the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline in March 2023 after an international arbitration ruling found Turkey in breach of the agreement for allowing independent KRG exports without Baghdad’s approval.

Far from closing the door on cooperation, Turkey may be using legal termination as a negotiating tactic aiming to secure more favourable terms and reassert its strategic role in regional energy transit.

The move increases pressure on Baghdad to resume exports under revised terms, especially as budgetary constraints in Baghdad mount. For Turkey, restarting flows supports its long-term ambition to position itself as a regional energy hub.

By cancelling the agreement, Ankara may be seeking to undercut the legal basis of the ruling and push for a new arrangement. One that resets the terms of engagement with Baghdad and potentially bypasses past liabilities.

Iraq and Turkey see award in multibillion oil dispute UPDATED: An ICC tribunal has awarded just under US$1.5 billion to Iraq in a decade-long dispute with Turkey over crude oil exports from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region – though Turkey says it def...

The halt has kept ~450,000 barrels per day offline, costing Iraq significant revenue and leaving Turkey without transit fees. Ankara was also ordered to pay Iraq ~$1.5 billion in damages.
globalarbitrationreview.com/article/iraq...

Quick backdrop: Iraq halted oil exports via the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline in March 2023 after an international arbitration ruling found Turkey in breach of the agreement for allowing independent KRG exports without Baghdad’s approval.

Türkiye-Irak Petrol Boru Hattı Anlaşması, seneye sona erecek Türkiye-Irak Petrol Boru Hattı Anlaşması, seneye sona erecek

Turkey has announced it will terminate its 1973 oil pipeline agreement with Iraq, effective July 2026. While framed as a legal move, the decision is likely a strategic manoeuvre in ongoing energy negotiations with Baghdad.

#OTD From my private collection Turkish airborne propaganda leaflets dispersed at the beginning of the Turkish amphibious and airborne operation to Cyprus on 20 July 1974. Turkish Special Operations Department prepared 12 leaflets in 5 colours

Exclusive: Syria believed it had green light from US, Israel to deploy troops to Sweida Syria's government misread how Israel would respond to its troops deploying to the country's south this week, encouraged by U.S. messaging that Syria should be governed as a centralized state, eight sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

There are "real fears that Syria is heading towards being broken up into statelets,” a senior Gulf Arab official told Reuters.
Great dispatch from Maya Gebeili.
www.reuters.com/world/middle...

@ajaltamimi.bsky.social Hi Aymenn, would you mind following back for a quick DM exchange? Thanks!

The Druze in Southern Syria: A 'Mainstream' Perspective In 2017, when the Druze militia group ‘Liwa al-Jabal’ (‘The Mountain Brigade’) first emerged in the southern Syrian province of al-Suwayda’, the group’s spokesman and media activist Ziyad Abu Tafesh c...

New: some observations from a meeting with media activist/spokesman for 'mainstream' Druze al-Suwayda' faction Liwa al-Jabal, focusing on the issue of relationship between al-Suwayda' factions and the Syrian central government/Ministry of Defence www.aymennaltamimi.com/p/the-druze-...

‘Shot in the head, as if executed’: four days of violence end with hundreds dead in southern Syria Sectarian divisions prompted the worst unrest in Syria since March as the Druze population of Sweida province suffered massacres and executions

‘Shot in the head, as if executed’: four days of violence end with hundreds dead in southern Syria www.theguardian.com/world/2025/j...

Is this really the start of PKK disarmament? On Friday 11 July, thirty fighters from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (Partiya Karkêren Kurdistan, PKK) threw their weapons into a bonfire at a meeting in Sulaimaniyah, a city in the east of the Kurdis...

"Turkish officials have not shared any detailed timetable for the laying down of weapons. We do not know much more about the mechanisms and protocols used to receive and disarm ex-guerrillas, to collect, list and store weapons and ammunition..."
substack.com/home/post/p-...

PKK’s leader wearing a greige Lacoste polo has absolutely broken my Kurdish WhatsApp channel.
www.rudaw.net/turkish/midd...

A Syrian Death Factory Gives Up Its Secrets Under the Assad regime, Saydnaya prison became a mass-killing machine; ‘a symbol of shame for the whole world.’

Since December we have been investigating the Assad regime's killings in Saydnaya prison.

Based on interviews with 21 former detainees, we show the extent of the atrocities committed in the prison, including an incident in March 2023 in which some 600 men were executed in one week:

If a sitting president can openly muse about arresting and disappearing someone who is likely to become mayor of the country's largest city, while also getting the funding for a massive secret police, it'd be hard to find sufficient evidence to qualify that country as a democracy.

Cyprus invites Turkey's Erdogan to summit despite long rift over 1974 invasion Cyprus said on Monday it would invite arch-foe Turkey to a summit during its European Union presidency next year despite a decades-long rift over Ankara's 1974 invasion and its backing of a breakaway state on the divided island.

Turkey is a gift to any summer news room. Many stories coming out these days.
Among them, this curveball:
www.reuters.com/world/middle...

1/ What happens when you give social data science students 821.6 GB of public vessel geolocation data (AIS) and just 9 hours to identify potentially suspicious behavior near the Danish coast?

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

"Was it really this dumb in 2003" guys they renamed french fries

The poli sci distinction between state and regime is important here. Israel’s bombing (as well as Iran’s policies in past 20 years) are hollowing out & chipping away at state capacity to govern and organize society. This does not mean it necessarily makes the regime weak.The state is Israel’s target

APNewsAlert: DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — International Atomic Energy Agency says Israeli strikes had 'direct impacts' on Natanz underground centrifuge halls.

The Pentagon Disinformation That Fueled America’s UFO Mythology U.S. military fabricated evidence of alien technology and allowed rumors to fester to cover up real secret-weapons programs.

The UFO-curious teenager in me resists this, but secrecy culture has a way of cannibalising itself, basically turning bureaucratic dysfunction into cosmic mystery.
Somehow, terrestrial failures look better when framed as extraterrestrial.
www.wsj.com/politics/nat...

“Thank You President Trump… Make Syria Great Again” billboard in Damascus

This week, the 9th batch of Iraqis - 223 families, totaling 832 individuals - have left Al-Hol in Syria for Iraq. Almost 6000 Iraqis have left Al-Hol and Roj detention camps this year alone. www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/843...

Exclusive: US gives nod to Syria to bring foreign jihadist ex-rebels into army The United States has given its blessing to a plan by Syria's new leadership to incorporate thousands of foreign jihadist former rebel fighters into the national army, provided that it does so transparently, President Donald Trump's envoy said.

The plan is for ~3,500 foreign fighters, mainly Uyghurs to join a newly-formed unit, the 84th Syrian army division, which would also include Syrians.
www.reuters.com/world/middle...

US withdraws hundreds of troops from Syria after Pentagon directive Hundreds of American troops have been withdrawn from Syria, according to US officials, in line with US President Donald Trump’s new approach to the region

»We’ve gone from eight bases to five to three. We’ll eventually go to one,« said US envoy for Syria Tom Barrack.

english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-...

Acting FEMA Chief Told Staff He Didn’t Know About U.S. Hurricane Season

»In a meeting with FEMA staff, David Richardson said he was unaware the United States had a hurricane season. Two staff members said it was unclear if he was serious, but the agency said he was joking.«

www.nytimes.com/2025/06/02/u... david-richardson-hurricane-season.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share

Thrilled to announce my new article, "Symbolic Leverage: Nominating (Non)Veiled Women as an Electoral Competition Strategy in Polarized Turkey," is now published in @politicsgenderj.bsky.social and available as First View (Open Access)! 🇹🇷♀️🗳️ (Thread 👇)
#SymbolicLeverage #TurkishPolitics

Nihilistic Violent Extremism and American Counterterrorism The FBI’s new terrorism label reflects a shift in counterterrorism, as online radicalization blurs lines between ideology and violence.

NEW: In @justsecurity.org, I assess the FBI's controversial new "nihilistic violent extremism" (NVE) framework. It's a worthwhile step forward — as long as it does not discount white supremacist violence, which remains America's gravest terrorist threat. www.justsecurity.org/113463/nihil...