DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe

Artificial intelligence could eventually disrupt any product, service, or individual job where humans do not have a strong emotional connection.

Yesterday's Initial Claims report showed the US labor market remains in its delicate balance of little firing to go along with equally modest hiring. Year to date, weekly Initial Claims are running below the 2022 – present average.

2/2 ...Workers clearly feel they still have somewhat of an upper hand in retaining remote work, otherwise they would trade flexibility for job security. This suggests that a layoff-led US recession is not a

1/2 Average US office occupancy is still only just over half of pre-Pandemic levels, even 6 years on from lockdowns and as companies increasingly crack down on hybrid work. US Google search volumes for “remote work” also made a new all-time high earlier this month...

Every investor should know the basics of Nvidia’s financial performance, as the company’s weighting in the S&P 500 (8.0%) is larger than 5 entire sectors. The bottom line is that this is a wildly profitable company with remarkably high returns on shareholder equity.

$NVDA $QQQ

A weaker dollar is a common feature of a global economic expansion and therefore consistent with strong non-US equity returns priced in local currencies.

In just the first 2 months of 2026, non-US stocks have beaten the S&P 500 by almost as much as all of 2025 (10.0 vs 12.3 pts). In layman’s terms, the old mantra “buy American stocks” has become “bye, American stocks”.

YouTube video by The Compound Big Tech Has Til Year-End…or Else.

Big Tech has a year before investors start really questioning the wisdom of their AI CapEx. We're seeing a bit of this wariness now: the stocks are flat or down YTD. And non-US stocks have been outperforming for over a year. Watch our full take below!

youtu.be/aqDkgykrNf8?...

US Big Tech earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027 have not increased enough to reassure investors that massive AI-related CapEx will not pressure margins.

2/2 ...On top of that, US small caps have finally joined the rally and are now outperforming the S&P over the last 14 months. 2026 has gotten off to a flying start.

1/2 While the S&P 500 is only up +1.5% YTD, there is a raging bull market almost everywhere else around the world. MSCI Europe is up 8%, Japan +15% & Emerging Markets +16%. The greenback is weaker, but nowhere near enough to explain these dollar-based returns...

US large cap Tech has been a better performing sector in the 2020s than the 2010s, but with much more volatility. Its recent 100-day underperformance is largely due to $MSFT and $PLTR. $NVDA ’s strong quarter should support this hardware-heavy group.

$XLK

YouTube video by The Compound Big Tech Has Til Year-End…or Else.

Big Tech’s AI clock is ticking - one year to prove the hype or face the music. Are we on the edge of a tech reckoning? Watch our answer below!

Big Tech Has Til Year-End…or Else. youtu.be/aqDkgykrNf8?... via @YouTube

Popular QQQ ETF faces a crucial moment with Nvidia earnings on deck after its rare pullback A popular ETF that tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index has posted a loss over the trailing 50 days — something the fund seldom has done, according to DataTrek Research.

DataTrek's Jessica Rabe: "...or a new positive catalyst — such as [Big Tech] curtailing expected AI capex — comes along to give the QQQs some positive momentum.” @CIdzelis @MarketWatch

www.marketwatch.com/story/popula...

2/2 ...Further, current correlation readings do not indicate the sort of excessive optimism that risks a significant near-term pullback.

1/2 Average S&P sector correlations to the index remain below their long run average. This only happens during bull markets, when investors have sufficient confidence in the macro environment to allocate capital based on industry-level fundamentals...

The Nasdaq 100 is down -3.2% over the last 50-trading days, notable since the QQQ’s 50-day returns have been positive 74% of the time over the last 11 years. History shows it will likely take a macro shock to push $QQQ into true correction territory.

YouTube video by The Compound Big Tech Has Til Year-End…or Else.

Big Tech’s AI clock is ticking - one year to prove the hype or face the music. Are we on the edge of a tech reckoning? Watch our answer below!

Big Tech Has Til Year-End…or Else. youtu.be/aqDkgykrNf8?... via @YouTube

2/2 ...In large caps, this is because of a dramatic Value underweight to Tech/Big Tech (17/24 points). In small caps, Value outperformance has come from overweights to Energy/Materials and a Health Care underweight.

1/2 Over the last 100 days, Value has outperformed Growth in both US large & small caps, and by very similar amounts (7–10 percentage points)...

Over the last 100 trading days, Value has beaten Growth in both US large & small caps, and by very similar amounts (7 – 10 percentage points). We explain why and which should outperform over the next 100 days in tonight's report.

Sign up on datatrekresearch.com to read it!

YouTube video by The Compound Big Tech Has Til Year-End…or Else.

Big Tech has a year before investors start really questioning the wisdom of their AI CapEx. We're seeing a bit of this wariness now: the stocks are flat or down YTD. And non-US stocks have been outperforming for over a year. Watch our full take below!

youtu.be/aqDkgykrNf8?...

$MSFT is the only US Big Tech name at risk of making a new 1-year low any time soon. As of today, it is 8.7% away from its April 2025 lows.

The $IEF ETF (iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bonds) is up +1.3% YTD on a price basis and +1.6 pct since the start of February. Longer dated paper ( $TLT, iShares 20+ Treasuries) is doing even better, +3.0% YTD and since February.

2/2 ...Separately, 3 of the 5 largest non-US private startups are Chinese and will likely list in Hong Kong to reduce the valuation and capital flows linkage between China’s most important companies and US markets.

$MCHI $EEM $VOO

1/2 S&P 500 returns over the next decade are partially contingent on the likes of @OpenAI & @SpaceX going public w/in the next 2 years. Keeping the IPO window open will require decent Tech sector returns, low volatility & US Big Tech proving their AI investments will pay off...

YouTube video by The Compound Big Tech Has Til Year-End…or Else.

Big Tech has a year - maybe less - before investors start really questioning the wisdom of allocating every dollar of operating cash flow to AI. We're seeing a bit of this wariness even now.

Watch our full take below!
youtu.be/aqDkgykrNf8?...

A look at the first US tax refund data from the current filing season shows that payment amounts are up +14% versus last year, good news for many American consumers.

YouTube video by The Compound Big Tech Has Til Year-End…or Else.

Thanks to @Downtown for a great convo about US Big Tech's CapEx spends & what they mean for the "American exceptionalism trade". Bottom line: markets aren't going to wait forever for these investments to pay off. Watch below!

youtu.be/aqDkgykrNf8?...

Anthropic is a prime IPO candidate for 2026 Anthropic, once seen as somewhat of an also-ran in the world of artificial-intelligence chatbots, has made a name for itself by emphasizing AI coding tools. Now the company might end up doing one of t...

DataTrek's Jessica Rabe: "Whether OpenAI or @AnthropicAI goes public first, the initial mover will likely put pressure on the other to also IPO in order to tap public markets for much-needed capital at attractive valuations." @emilybary @MarketWatch www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage...