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In this video, we show how oil prices and US stocks reacted to Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in Aug 1990 & Gulf War I in Jan/Feb 1991. The S&P troughed on the same day WTI peaked, long before there was a resolution to this geopolitical crisis. That's a key lesson for today.
youtu.be/4hNWNQRTqkU?...
Thank you!
04.03.2026 00:52 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Investors need not be armchair generals to understand how stocks trade during periods of Mideast military conflict. The 1990 – 1991 experience shows that the S&P 500 bottoms the same day that oil prices peak.
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When looking for a sweet spot to buy back into stocks, Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek, told MarketWatch that seeing the VIX close at 27.5 or above is as a solid rule of thumb." @jsadinolfi @MarketWatch
www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-s...
2/2 …A peak in crude oil prices helped stabilize investor sentiment towards Tech/Growth stocks, making energy prices a key factor in current market direction.
Read our full take in tonight’s report by signing up free on datatrekresearch.com!
1/2 During the 1990 – 1991 Mideast Crisis, the Nasdaq Comp both fell more than the S&P 500 (-26 vs -17 pct) and bottomed later (Oct 16th vs Oct 11th). Its subsequent recovery was, however, far more rewarding for investors (1991 return of +57 pct vs +26 pct for the S&P)…
03.03.2026 22:13 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
US strikes on Iran and oil volatility are dominating sentiment, but history shows the tradable bottom comes before resolution. 📉
Watch our video on "Oil Shocks/War: Lessons from 1990–1991" to see why below!
youtu.be/4hNWNQRTqkU?...
These stock market moves almost never happen.
Tech is splitting.
Capital is rotating.
Global leadership is shifting.
If you think this is “just noise,” you’re missing the signal.
Here’s what the data actually says 👇
youtu.be/oEIBwl0D3Hg?...
2/2 ...On the other end of the spectrum, US mid and small cap equity investors need to have more exposure to Energy, between 4.6% (mid-caps) and 5.5 – 5.9% (small caps). That’s also true for large cap equal-weight investors (4.6%).
$IWM $MDY $IJR $RSP $XLE $ACWI $ACWX
1/2 The MSCI All-Country index has a 3.9% weighting in Energy, which means investors measured against this global equity benchmark should have at least that much exposure to the sector. It’s less for US large cap equity investors, at 3.5% of the S&P 500...
03.03.2026 16:25 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
These stock market moves almost never happen — until now. From non-US stocks to small caps and Software stocks, the market’s shifting in ways we haven’t seen in years. Watch 👇
youtu.be/oEIBwl0D3Hg?...
2/2 ....There was some modest panic at the open, although the VIX did not even get to 27.5, its one standard deviation upside level. After that, calmer heads prevailed. The VIX closed near its long run average of 19.4, and the S&P was essentially unchanged.
03.03.2026 15:07 — 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 01/2 There is an old trader’s saying that “retail traders open the market, but institutional investors close it”, and remember yesterday’s VIX levels and S&P 500 price action fit with this idea...
03.03.2026 15:07 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0The fact that crude prices are only +40% up from their 1-year lows so far is a macro positive, in that history shows crude prices must rise by 80 – 100% over a 12-month period before a US recession becomes inevitable.
03.03.2026 14:40 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 02/2 ...Given that Energy is often one of the few groups that outperforms during an oil shock, maintaining at least a neutral weighting remains a prudent strategy.
03.03.2026 14:37 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 01/2 Whether you are over- or underweight Energy could meaningfully impact portfolio returns in the coming weeks. Most major benchmarks only have 3 to 4 pct exposure to the sector, but allocations vary widely by geography and investment style...
03.03.2026 14:37 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 02/2 ...The dollar rallied against all major currencies, and the euro is now down on the year. US stocks widely beat rest of world stocks, and Tech provided leadership.
03.03.2026 14:31 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 01/2 US capital markets took the weekend’s events in the Middle East largely in stride yesterday. Crude oil prices are not even back to 1-year highs, although their move yesterday did spark modest incremental inflation concerns in Fed Funds Futures and Treasuries...
03.03.2026 14:31 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
Markets don’t normally go 2–4 standard deviations from history — but right now they are. From size to sector to geography, equity rotations are extreme.
Here’s what’s driving it 👇
These Stock Market Moves Almost Never Happen — Until Now youtu.be/oEIBwl0D3Hg?... via @YouTube
Did you know you can listen to our videos on
Spotify? Check out our latest episode on 3 of the most extreme market rotations happening right now.
Here is the link: open.spotify.com/episode/1ewO...
We outline 3 cases where "extreme" is a very fair characterization of recent equity market moves in our latest video. 1) Non-US stock outperformance. 2) US small cap outperformance. 3) Semis outperforming software. Each absolutely merits your attention.
youtu.be/oEIBwl0D3Hg?...
Non-US stocks have just beaten the S&P 500 by nearly 4 standard deviations over the last year, a result last seen in early 2010. Is this a dramatic catch-up trade or emblematic of a bigger theme?
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Are you over- or underweight the Energy sector right now? That’s the most important question every investor should be asking themselves this week.
Read why in tonight's report by signing up for a 2-week free trial on datatrekresearch.com! $XLE
Markets don’t normally move 2–4 standard deviations from history. But that’s exactly what’s happening now — and Big Tech’s AI spending is the catalyst.
Watch our latest video!
These Stock Market Moves Almost Never Happen — Until Now youtu.be/oEIBwl0D3Hg?...
As we often remind our readers, we always recommend a neutral Energy sector weighting in diversified portfolios as it is the only sector that reliably hedges an oil price spike.
02.03.2026 22:59 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Markets don’t normally go 2–4 standard deviations from history — but right now they are. From size to sector to geography, equity rotations are extreme.
Here’s what’s driving it 👇
These Stock Market Moves Almost Never Happen — Until Now youtu.be/oEIBwl0D3Hg?... via @YouTube
US Big Tech’s aggregate contribution to the S&P 500 went from zero in January to -2.2 percentage points in February. Only $AAPL added a small amount of positive index return last month (+0.1 points).
02.03.2026 21:59 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Dividend-focused investing is far and away the most productive style year to date thru Feb (+10.1 - +12.1%), thanks to its overweight to Industrials and Staples (18 – 22% allocations apiece, depending on the index).
$SDY $NOBL
We outline 3 cases where "extreme" is a very fair characterization of recent equity market moves in our latest video. 1) Non-US stock outperformance. 2) US small cap outperformance. 3) Semis outperforming software. Each absolutely merits your attention.
youtu.be/oEIBwl0D3Hg?...
The Russell 2000’s outperformance vs the S&P 500 slipped in Feb (+1.0 pts) vs Jan (+3.9 pts). The slowdown in US small cap momentum last month was broad based. Except for Materials, every other small cap sector saw lower returns in Feb.
$IWM