Grapes

Nah, there will just be a new industry in the US ... smuggling

Trump’s Global War on Trade has officially launched … and claimed its most important victim.

For a century, America grew wealthy as the center and anchor of the global trade system.

It was based on TRUST that the US could always be relied upon.

No one can trust America now.

#tariffs, #trump

12 dogs lying down and ined up like parked cars as they wait for their owners and dog-walkers in a park in Mexico City

I'm in Mexico City and met a couple from Virginia who were astounded by the well-behaved dogs in Mexico City. I dug this out of my old phone photos from Parque Mexico, La Condesa district, 2018.

Apparently not all Mexicans are maniacs who eat their dogs and cats.

#dogs
#mexico

Everyone is fixated on Trump's tariff proposals (aka threats). Another financial force is just as powerful as tariffs. In the past year, the Peso devalued more than 20% against the Dollar. That pretty much nullifies Trump's planned 25% tariff increase. And Trump can't control exchange rates.

I'm fascinated by most Wall Street analysts' scenarios about low taxes and lower regulation creating an extended bull market. But Trump's tax plans will hit a debt ceiling buzz saw and blindly cut "regulations" will wreak operational havoc.

How long will the rosy feeling last ... and then what?

Ladder-pulling and hypocrisy seem to be defining characteristics of everyone who voted for Trump … whether they be MAGAs from rural towns, Latino immigrants, or billionaire tech bros.

Funny how you everything is more complicated in the real world than it seems in the MAGA echo chamber.

The main problem with tariff hikes is that they blow back on Business and Main Street. No recent President was ever willing to risk that. Trump doesn't give a fig for the American public. He wants personal money and power, so he is willing to push the $500B+ bill to them without compunction.

Trump's tariff gambit is weird. Economists agree that tariff hikes always blow back.

My suspicion: 1) His new rates could net a $500B+/yr windfall to Treasury .. slush fund! 2) He can impulsively bully (threaten hikes) and bribe (offer cuts) to foreign leaders. Horsetrading is his thing! Twofer!

Trump's plans, (https://buff.ly/3YPuCYp), are an awful agenda for America. The 900 pages at Project2025 (https://buff.ly/3zaq6uw) present even more alarming prospects. But this is a strategic opportunity for Democrats and Progressives to fiercely counter-attack his dumber proposals.

Trump Recession
Trump Inflation
Trump Medical Crisis
Trump Labor Crisis
Trump Trade Crisis
Trump Deficit Crisis

Most of these will become real

If he follows his plans to a) mass deport, b) impose broad tariffs, and c) gut ACA … he will leave chaos and destruction throughout the economy.

If we can’t stop him, we must document it relentlessly. Drive the focussed message home for two years into the midterms and for two years more to 2028.

China's technology and manufacturing infrastructure are formidable, but Taiwan's is no slouch and it can partner with US, Japan, S. Korea, Vietnam, Phillipines, Australia, etc.

Plus, Ukraine may have some relevant real-life experience.

If the will is there, it all could happen in a year.