Maria Berlin

📢 Call for Papers: 'The Economics of Inequality and the Environment'! @freenetwork.bsky.social and SITE invite submissions from economics, political science, and related fields.

⏳Deadline: 15 Oct (papers or extended abstracts).
💡Learn more and how to submit your paper: tr.ee/lw8ahh

Vladimir Putin is testing the West—and its unity NATO must resist Russia’s efforts to corrode it from within

Vladimir Putin is waging a grey-zone campaign against Europe. He is trying to achieve three things, and he needs to fail at all of them

Working on topics of Inequality and the #environment ? Join @sitestockholm.bsky.social
workshop on Nov 28! Deadline October 15.

On Sep 30, Russia submitted its new state budget, behind the numbers was a battered war economy.
How did Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine shape its finances and daily life?

💡 @lilleberlin.bsky.social (Researcher, SITE) shared key insights (in Swe): www.sverigesradio.se/artikel/hur-...

Despite sanctions, SKF components worth hundreds of millions SEK have entered Russia since the war began — often via third countries. "These parts are critical to Russia's war industry," says @torbjornbecker.bsky.social, Director of SITE.

💡Learn more (in Swe): www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/Rz...

The ban on imports of russian LNG announced with the 19th sanctions package is very welcome! Here's what the situation looks like and what we should be on the lookout for ⬇️🧵

The secondary market for LNG vessels should be closely monitored. Transshipments should be explicitly banned. Finally, the sanctions are not a call to replace 🇷🇺 LNG with other fossil fuels. Faster progress on energy efficiency and green transition is an excellent complement.

A price cap could serve as a transitional measure. It would limit revenues during the adjustment period and prevent frontloading of Russian profits. Unlike oil, Russia would struggle to circumvent such a cap, due to lack of shipping capacity and technological constraints.

Now, to what should be done more. The embargo is announced far in advance, starting jan 2027, as LNG market is shaped by long-term contracts. Therefore Russia may benefit from excess earnings before it takes effect.

Compared to what happened with the oil embargo, LNG is harder to reroute, and there's no "shadow fleet" of old tankers available to bypass sanctions. LNG tankers are a newer, more specialized technology, in high global demand. Not many outdated vessels lying around to be coopted.

Exporting LNG to China is theoretically an option, but logistically difficult and costly. The preferred Arctic route via the Baltic Sea is only usable with ice-class vessels—of which Russia owns just 15.

Russia is more dependent on the West for LNG than the West is on Russia. An estimated 93% of Russian LNG exports rely on G7+ maritime services for transport. Russia strived to become a global leader in LNG since 2019. But it still lacks the shipping capacity.

But not all imported LNG is actually consumed in the EU. Around 22% is re-exported outside the EU gas system—meaning it's not driven by internal need but by commercial or strategic considerations.

Countries like Spain, Belgium, France, and the Netherlands remain significantly dependent on Russian LNG. Some of them have even increased imports compared to pre-war levels.

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, EU imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) have surged. While new suppliers have entered the picture, LNG volumes from Russia have not decreased. In some cases, they've even grown.

The ban on imports of russian LNG announced with the 19th sanctions package is very welcome! Here's what the situation looks like and what we should be on the lookout for ⬇️🧵

European taxpayers have shown remarkable solidarity with Ukraine—but footing Russia’s bill isn’t the only option. There is an alternative. Listen to this important discussion (in Swedish). 🎧🇸🇪https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TdE7xiO4ZSk
@torbjornbecker.bsky.social at minute 36.

The Effect of Targeted Sanctions on the Russian Shadow Fleet

Thank you for sharing!

“The economy may and are likely to decline in 2025,” Inosemtsev told The Moscow Times.

The excess of funds that was used to stimulate the economy is exhausted, says economist Vladislav Inozemtsev. To continue to support the military industry, the authorities will have to raise taxes and withdraw resources from the civilian sectors, and this will slow down growth, he explains.

The IMF predicts a slowdown to the Russian economy from 0.3% a year earlier, and economists polled by the HSE to 1.2%. The Central Bank forecasts growth this year at 1-2%, and next year - only 0.5-1.5%.

If the Kremlin decides to prolong the war, “additional tough sanctions” likely targeting the energy sector could trigger a downturn in the economy, считаетshe said.
The Ministry of Economic Development, which initially expected GDP growth this year by 2.5%, lowered the forecast to 1.5%.

an increase in interest rates and growing business problems. The economy is now “balancing on the verge of recession,” said Tatiana Orlova, the leading economist for emerging markets Oxford Economies.

says Liam Peach, senior economist at emerging markets at Capital Economics. More than 20 trillion rubles, which the state distributed to military, contractors and defense plants, gave rise to the illusion of wealth. But the reckoning came in the form of a surge in inflation,

Even in the military-industrial complex industries (production of “competitive metal products”, the production of “computers, electronics and optics”), the growth rate fell 3.5-5 times. “The economy is obviously starting to suffer because of the imbalances that have accumulated during the war,”

Clothing production fell by 7%, furniture - by 12%, electrical equipment - by 6.5%. To 10.2% accelerated the decline in metallurgy.
In the minus by 1.1% in January-July was the production of food, cargo transportation decreased by 1.5%.

Compared to June (1%), the economy slowed down 2.5 times, and compared to December last year (4.5%) - 11 times.
On the verge of stagnation - with 0.7% growth - was the industry. And the industries that grew rapidly last year have fallen into a deep recession.

The military boom that the Russian economy experienced in 2023-24, finally came to naught. In July 2025, economic growth in the country almost stopped: its pace was 0.4% year-on-year, the Ministry of Economic Development reported on Wednesday.

Правительство констатировало почти полную остановку экономического роста в России - Русская служба The Moscow Times

“The economy is obviously starting to suffer because of the imbalances that have accumulated during the war,” from the Moscow Times. (Not to say we told you so, but… we told you so. Repeatedly.) www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/08/28/p...
Automatic translation below 👇