Keiran Pedley

Would Andy Burnham win a by-election?

We don't know for sure but one thing we do know is he is VERY popular in the north-west. More so than Starmer, Labour and Nigel Farage.

If anyone has a personal brand up there - it is him.

Source:
@ipsosintheuk.bsky.social Political Pulse

Something I keep coming back to. What impact does the 2028 US presidential election have on the (presumed) 2029 UK General Election?

Can't help think a Democrat win has a pretty significant impact on our landscape.

Half of Britons now say they feel worse off since Labour was elected – but lack confidence in any of the main parties to have a sound long-term economic plan Half (51%) of Britons now say they feel worse off since Labour was elected – but confidence in any of the main parties’ economic plans is low.

More here www.ipsos.com/en-uk/half-b...

Some important substance in public opinion ahead of the budget today via @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social

Public slightly more likely to prefer tax cuts to increases in public spending when given the choice 36%-30%.

Difference is subtle but trend since election clear.

'Labour won being cautious - but Brits are impatient for radical change' - LabourList Labour's manifesto promised change. But Brits aren't seeing it and are losing faith that Labour can deliver says Ipsos UK's Keiran Pedley.

New from me for @labourlist.bsky.social on how @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social polling shows Labour need to speak more for those that want radical change to win again.

50% of Brits want radical change but just 4% of this group trust Labour to deliver it

More here

labourlist.org/2025/11/brit...

New from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social
Keir Starmer’s net satisfaction rating unchanged at -66. The worst rating for a PM in the history of Ipsos polling.

New from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social
Labour sinks to historic low with Ipsos. Greens at historic high.

Reform UK 33% (-1 vs September 2025),
Labour 18% (-4),
Conservatives 16% (+2),
Green Party 15% (+3),
Liberal Democrats 12% (n/c),
Others 6% (n/c).

Interviews Oct 30th-Nov 5th

Reform UK leads by 12 pts over Labour as both PM and Chancellor hit historic low satisfaction ratings Reform UK leads by 12 pts over Labour as both PM and Chancellor hit historic low satisfaction ratings.

More here www.ipsos.com/en-uk/reform...

New from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social

Keir Starmer is the most unpopular PM in the history of Ipsos polling.

Net satisfaction with PM -66

Meanwhile Reform lead at 12.
Reform 34
Labour 22
Conservatives 14 (record low)
Lib Dems 12
Greens 12

For the first time, Britons split on whether Keir Starmer or Nigel Farage would make a better Prime Minister Three in ten prefer Keir Starmer, and three in ten prefer Nigel Farage.

More on the research here www.ipsos.com/en-uk/first-...

More from @Ipsos_in_the_UK who would make the better PM?

Among all
Burnham 25%
Starmer 20%
No different / neither 38%

Among 2024 Labour voters
Burnham 29%
Starmer 41%
No different / neither 21%

More from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social
Favourability towards Andy Burnham and Keir Starmer among 2024 Labour voters

Burnham
Favourable 49%
Unfavourable 12%
Net +37

Starmer
Favourable 44%
Unfavourable 31%
Net +13

NEW from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social
what do the public think of Andy Burnham vs Keir Starmer

Burnham
Favourable 29%
Unfavourable 20%
Net +9

Starmer
Favourable 21%
Unfavourable 54%
Net -33

Ipsos poll on British attitudes towards the conflict in Israel and Gaza While 44% of Britons support the UK government recognising a Palestinian state, 41% say that it won’t make a difference to resolving the conflict.

More on the research here www.ipsos.com/en-uk/ipsos-...

As the U.K. prepares to recognise a Palestinian state @Ipsos_in_the_UK polling suggests

- 44% support this decision
- 13% oppose.

With the rest neutral or not giving an opinion.

It’s the Trump state visit. But what do the British public think?

Britain needs a leader like Trump: 29%

Britain does not need a leader like Trump 62%

Source: @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social

British economic sentiment is following the US in becoming an increasingly partisan signal.

There has been a red-blue sentiment gap for decades, but it’s widening (data: @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social / @keiranpedley.bsky.social)

Inside The Founding Of Jeremy Corbyn's New Party: 'End This Horrible Power Struggle' The trials and tribulations of founding a new party on the left. Can they unite? What challenges lie ahead? Sienna Rodgers reports

Really great article from new left party from @siennarodgers.bsky.social

www.politicshome.com/news/article...

@keiranpedley.bsky.social & @camerongarrett.bsky.social will dig into all this (and more) at the conference later this week. If you’re there and want to talk polling, drop them a message ☕

My gut says as long as immigration and asylum are the number one issue for the public then Reform wins the next election comfortably. Labour simply won’t win a political arms race on that subject. Question is can they move tue conversation on?

Rewatching Derry girls. What a wonderful show. Clinton episode really hits home. Politics can be a depressing, soul sucking thing at times. But sometimes it works. Sometimes things really do get better. And that’s great.

🚨 New from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social Our issues index shows immigration the number one issue for the public - with importance growing 🚨

48% say immigration number one issue - up 8 pts from last month

There’s more (short 🧵)

Immigration tops Britons’ concerns as public divided on whether it is acceptable to protest outside asylum hotels Three in ten (31%) say their local area is housing more than its fair share of asylum seekers, doubling to 61% of Reform UK voters. The public is divided on the acceptability of protesting outside hot...

More on the research here

www.ipsos.com/en-uk/immigr...

And Starmer’s record on this heavily criticised.

42% think his govt is doing a worse job on immigration than the previous Conservative govt. 23% say it is doing a better job.

Trend is moving in the wrong direction for Labour

Perception is rising numbers likely key here. @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social polling shows two thirds think small boat crossings increasing - almost half say increasing a lot.

How does salience of immigration as an issue compare to past waves?

48% not as high as record in Sept 15 (pre Brexit)

…but let’s not kid ourselves, concern is high and general trend is up. Unclear where the peak is.

Unsurprisingly Immigration most important to Reform UK voters. 84% of this group say it’s an important issue.

What is notable is that growing importance is more driven by increase among Labour & Conservative supporters!

Wrong to say it’s just an issue for Reform supporters.

🚨 New from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social Our issues index shows immigration the number one issue for the public - with importance growing 🚨

48% say immigration number one issue - up 8 pts from last month

There’s more (short 🧵)

Doh yes it should. Will get that fixed!

🚨 1 in 5 Brits say they’d consider voting for new left wing party - including 1 in 3 aged under 35 🚨

New deep dive polling by @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social
looks at how much appeal new Corbyn / Sultana party might have.

I think potentially quite a lot but let’s deep dive 🧵