Lexi Wilkes

So excited for your defense @breckmccollum.bsky.social ! Can’t wait to see all the awesome work you’ve done :)

Check out "Scaling the r-spatial ecosystem" by Dewey Dunnington 🌍📦
An exploration of how R’s spatial tools can be used for big(ger) data.

Video: youtu.be/tjNEoIYr_ag?...
Slides: dewey.dunnington.ca/slides/rspat...

#RStats #rspatial #GIS #SpatialData

A preprint of our paper on #CausalInference in #Ecology - Best practices for moving from correlation to causation in ecological research - led by Hannah Correia is now up as a preprint ecoevorxiv.org/repository/v... 🧪🌍

This came from a GREAT workshop last year, and gives a solid framework and howto

Just incredibly proud of Taylor Kielczewski's honors poster on determinants of #kelp distributions in Long Island Sound from working with @lexiwilkes.bsky.social. Fantastic work!!!

After a lot of hard work, the Global Ocean Observing System #GOOS Bio-Eco panel has released their Essential Ocean Variable spec sheets for expert review. If you're doing work with anything biological in the ocean, take a look at goosocean.org/news/call-fo... and give us your expert opinion! #IOOS

Rapid Response Bridge Funding Program In the face of recent abrupt shifts in federal funding for education research, including large-scale terminations of National Science Foundation (NSF) research grant awards, we have developed a rap...

FYI: The Spencer Foundation, Kapor Foundation, The William T. Grant Foundation, and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation have collaborated to offer $25K rapid response grants.

"This rapid response bridge funding opportunity is for scholars and teams whose grants have recently been cancelled by NSF."

URGENT ACTION FOR NSF GRANTEES.

For current & recent (since 2020) awards, archive your award history this afternoon/tonight. Screenshot/download/print your work in research.gov & alert your partners.

We have credible threats to integrity of awards tracking systems (via @jeremymberg.bsky.social)

Graphical summary of 10 quick tips to get started with Bayesian statistics and how they fit into a larger view of an analytical workflow with Bayesian models.

🚨🎉 New paper "Ten quick tips to get you started with Bayesian statistics", hope you'll like it 😇🤗

✍🏽 w/ Andy Royle, Marc Kéry and Chloé Nater

🔗 dx.plos.org/10.1371/jour...

@plos.org @cnrsecologie.bsky.social @cnrsoccitanieest.bsky.social @umontpellier.bsky.social

The subject of investigating causation in ecology has been widely discussed in recent years, especially by advocates of a structural causal model (SCM) approach. Some of these advocates have criticized the use of predictive models and model selection for drawing inferences about causation. We argue that the comparison of model-based predictions with observations is a key step in hypothetico-deductive (H-D) science and remains a valid approach for assessing causation. We draw a distinction between two approaches to inference based on predictive modeling. The first approach is not guided by causal hypotheses and focuses on the relationship between a (typically) single response variable and a potentially large number of covariates. We agree that this approach does not yield useful inferences about causation and is primarily useful for hypothesis generation. The second approach follows a H-D framework and is guided by specific hypotheses about causal relationships. We believe that this has been, and continues to be, a useful approach to causal inference. Here, we first define different kinds of causation, arguing that a “probability-raisers-of-processes” definition is especially appropriate for many ecological systems. We outline different scientific “designs” for generating the observations used to investigate causation. We briefly outline some relevant components of the SCM and H-D approaches to investigating causation, emphasizing a H-D approach that focuses on modeling causal effects on vital rate (e.g., rates of survival, recruitment, local extinction, colonization) parameters underlying system dynamics. We consider criticisms of predictive modeling leveled by some SCM proponents and provide two example analyses of ecological systems that use predictive modeling and avoid these criticisms. We conclude that predictive models have been, and can continue to be, useful for providing inferences about causation.

New #statistics #ecopubs @esajournals.bsky.social:

Predictive models are indeed useful for causal inference doi.org/10.1002/ecy....

Sounds like a response to 'Predictive models aren't for causal inference' doi.org/10.1111/ele....

Graphic of kelp genetics.

Giant kelp. In particular, kelp forests are declining in many parts of the northeast Pacific, practically right off my doorstep where we live close to Puget Sound [Salish Sea]. "Bemmels et al. sequenced the genomes of 429 bull kelp (Nereocystis luetkeana) and 211 giant kelp (Macrocystis sp.) from the coastlines of British Columbia and Washington." They found 'low effective population size was associated with low genetic diversity and high inbreeding coefficients (including increased selfing rates), with extreme variation in these genetic health indices among bull kelp populations but more moderate variation in giant kelp.' They found fewer deleterious variants than predicted, but suspect their loss was more likely due to genetic drift rather than purging. "The researchers predict (1) reduced within-population inbreeding depression in small populations, which may be associated with an observed shift toward increased selfing rate, and (2) hybrid vigor in crosses between small populations." These findings inform several possible strategies for optimal sourcing and crossing of populations for restoration + aquaculture. Kelp have keystone ecosystem functions, but also represent a potential source of both biofuel + agricultural amendments.

Curr. Biol. (2025) 10.1016/j.cub.2024.12.025  Kelp forests are integral + critical to aquatic ecosystems, but species such as giant kelp + bull kelp have experienced population bottlenecks in recent decades.

obsessed

📣 JOB ALERT📣
The Silbiger Lab is hiring a full time research tech @ University of Hawai’i at Mānoa to support research on intertidal ecology in Hawai’i & coral reef/coastal oceanography in Okinawa, Japan. RCUH ID: 225085 application link below. 1 year to start, but have several years of funding.

Happy International Day of Women and Girls in Science!
Cheer your #WomeninScience on today. They need it!

STAND UP FOR SCIENCE 2025 Join us in Washington, DC or your state capitol on March 7th, 2025 to stand up for science!

Website is still under construction but worth it to keep checking for those interested in science advocacy and how to join local teams👇🏽

#standupforscience2025 #sciencenotsilence #scienceforall

A show of support to the scientists and staff at NOAA. This is among the best collection of scientists in the world who provide an invaluable public service via data and forecasting. Their work proves essential for daily operations of the military to commerce to the rest of the private sector.

Map of Northern Europe showing how temperatures would change after eventual AMOC collapse. Cities like London, Reykjavik or Bergen would chill drastically, by almost 15C for some.

What would happen if key ocean currents that bring warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic collapse?

Temperatures in northern Europe would drop drastically, studies suggest.

Our full story on the risks of AMOC collapse:
www.bbc.com/news/article...

SHARE WIDELY.
KNOW YOUR RIGHTS.

With mass deportations starting today across the country, it is vitally important - for both citizens and non-citizens - to know your rights.

You have the right to remain silent. Assert it. You have the right to a lawyer. Ask for one.

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A really beautiful and inspiring thread for anyone who needs a reminder that despite everything going on focusing on joy is so crucial. I know I needed the reminder. Thank you for sharing @mishellbaker.bsky.social💛

Very excited this paper is now out in Ecology Letters onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.... #causalsky

Exciting opportunity - Last minute call for nominations for experts and fellows for the #IPBES methodological assessment of integrated biodiversity-inclusive spatial planning and ecological connectivity

Fellows:
www.ipbes.net/spatial-plan...
Experts:
www.ipbes.net/spatial-plan...

$1,131,794,901

That's how much Big Oil has spent over the last 30 years paying off Congress to look the other way on climate action while the planet burns.

Well, the planet is burning.
Don't let them look away.

Gisele Pelicot is an incredible woman and a hero for her nerve in bringing all those rapists to justice and for knowing the shame does not lie worth her — bravely declining anonymity was incredible.

Fellowship Opportunity!

🌊 NOAA has announced 33 #fellowship positions to support their Climate Resilience Regional Challenge projects!

➡️Learn more and apply by Feb 28, 2025: loom.ly/EwSRTg4

Scientists Question the Use of “Tipping Point” Metaphor in Climate Change Discussions

Scientists Question the Use of “Tipping Point” Metaphor in Climate Change Discussions (from Rutgers Today)

Recently we’ve had an out pouring of papers warning of a higher-earlier likelihood of AMOC collapse. It’s due to studies now better factoring in fresh water melt from Greenland. Here’s a simplified animation on how it works & an article about a new study.
www.independent.co.uk/climate-chan...

National Fish and Wildlife Foundation and NOAA Announce $139 Million in New Grants to Support Coastal Resilience Projects WASHINGTON, D.C. (November 25, 2024) – The National Fish and Wildlife Foundation (NFWF) and NOAA today announced $139 million in new grants to support nature-based solutions for coastal resilience in…

National Fish and Wildlife Foundation and NOAA Announce $139 Million in New Grants to Support Coastal Resilience Projects https://buff.ly/4hZNkpb 🦑 🧪 🌏

Weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation driven by subarctic freshening since the mid-twentieth century - Nature Geoscience Fresh meltwater entering the Labrador and Irminger seas has resulted in a slowing of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation since the 1950s, according to a combination of modelling approaches...

Important new study shows that current climate models underestimate the human-caused slowing of the #AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation), because they neglect freshwater influx from Greenland melt and other sources. /1 🌊
www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Today is the day we ‘finish’ accepting apps! Then we start getting the committee machinery going! The portal will still be open (we know there are stragglers), but, after today, we are going to crack into these beauties. From what I’ve seen, you all are amazing!