It may have been that level that did him in. He sees his biggest competitors fall and gets too confident. That was a telling post skate interview.
Shades of Nathan Chen from 8 years ago.
Someone forgot to tell Melissa that it ran over mountainous terrain and should be weakening.
Though I suppose an ADT value of 152kt is lower than this morning's 185kts.
This event encapsulates a bookclub discussion we had about hope. I had a lack of hope, according to another member. I explained that, as a meteorologist, there's a sense of hopelessness with events like Melissa. Unlike cancer researchers, we can't stop these bad events. Only watch. Its heartbreaking
*Following.
It's been a long week. And it's only Monday morning. But I shouldn't complain, I'm not in Jamaica waiting for Melissa. Just watching the collision from afar.
Folding this up with the highest DPRINT estimated intensity I've ever seen. I had to increase the upper bound of the plot!
tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/DP...
One of the highest D-MINT intensity estimates I've seen in any basin. The minimum pressure for Melissa keeps dropping, will the winds respond?
tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/DM...
Not going to lie, hearing that song in 4th grade music class is what for me into weather!! And the Oakfield tornado warning. I still remember my mom saying "there's no tornado, it's sunny here." (We were 100 miles north.)
In some non-weather news, we just put down deposits for women's soccer in Madison!
The tiny eye from #Erin is messing with objective estimate. I re-ran some D-PRINT intensity estimates with the ADT centering position and saw 25kt increases! Now much closer to aircraft data and best track. Definitely love my colleagues at CIMSS.
Can we get some microwave overpasses please??
I'm not sure I'd call AI-RI cutting edge because I grimace whenever I look at the training code. But I'm glad the display is useful!
The long anticipated intensification of #Erin is possibly beginning. DPRINT intensities are climbing to 60 kts. Higher than other objective estimates, but maybe the start of something. Will be interesting to see the intensity at the next NHC forecast.
tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/DP...
You get an invest, and you get an invest, and you get an invest, everybody gets an invest!!
Happy August.
Great write-up. When training D-MINT183, we always thought it would compliment the SSMIS intensity estimates, not replace them. And even though there are 6 Tomorrow.io satellites in orbit, we only have access to two.
I'm going to miss SSMIS.
This is not the England team I watched in Zurich, that's for sure.
Hey @womensgamemib.bsky.social. Repping our favorite American women's club team @mnaurorafc.bsky.social at England v Netherlands Euros match! With @kelferg.bsky.social
Yeah and just so harsh. 5 days notice, little time to prepare.
Here's an example of all of the D-MINT intensity estimates for Erick. We thankfully expanded to include other satellites with 183GHz imagery (with help from SSMIS), but losing SSMIS will still leave major gaps.
tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/DM...
Not going to lie, I cried a bit when I got the email that SSMIS was being discontinued. I developed D-MINT with a toddler in tow, showing her pretty pictures of hurricanes so she knew what Mommy did while she's playing with friends at school. This one hurts.
Mine busted as soon as Stephanie Izard lost so I haven't even been checking it but I'm guessing it's worse. We're finally through the first round.
:(
First post on Bluesky should definitely be the first snowfall of the year. Also, it's windy.
