Peter Frankopan

Thank you Rebecca 🙏

For some considered thoughts from someone who knows what he’s talking about, read this.

8 quick thoughts on Iran I thought I should circulate a short post on today’s extraordinary events in Iran and the surrounding region.

Some quick thoughts on Iran - from who is left standing, to Hormuz and oil prices, to the effect on Russia.
open.substack.com/pub/peterfra...

Ali Reza Tangsiri, head of IRGC Navy
Saleh Asadi, head of the Intelligence Directorate of the “Khatam al-Anbiya” command
Mohammad Shirazi, head of the Military Bureau of the Supreme Leader
Hossein Jabal Amelian, Chairman of SPND - سازمان پژوهش‌های نوین دفاعی (Organisation of Innovation and Research)

Mohammad Shahadi, Head of the Military Staff of the Supreme Leader of Iran.
Ali Shamkhani Head of ecurity and Intelligence to the Leadership Council.
Mohammad Pakpour, Commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,

Working list of senior figures reportedly killed in Iran today (all tbc, and several not verified as yet); hearing plenty of other names too - but attributions more vague/less reliable as yet:

Ali Khamenei, Supreme leader
Mojtaba Khamenei, son and heir apparent
Aziz Nasirzadeh, Minister of Defence

This Is Samurai | The Rise Of Medieval Warlords | 1 Podcast Episode · Legacy · EP119 · 38m

To coincide with #Samurai, the @britishmuseum's fabulous new exhibition, here's the first of two eps on Japan's warrior class with @afuahirsch.bsky.social
on #Legacy podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...

The water wars are coming

The exceeding of #PlanetaryBoundaries is also a crisis of geopolitics, as @peterfrankopan.bsky.social sets out

unherd.com/2026/02/the-...

Desert One Again: the shadows of history and Iran’s Talks in Oman And so finally - after the uncertainties, the threats to cancel and the change of location - talks are underway in Oman to plot a set of potential futures for Iran.

I've written about this on #GlobalThreads. Free to read here: open.substack.com/pub/peterfra...

History provides an important backdrop here: Tehran is testing assumptions about US weakness and resolve 4/5

The reference is to Operation Eagle Claw (1980). And the message? Pressure fails; patience wins; and salvation comes from divine protection 3/5

Iran’s FM routed his flight to Muscat via “Desert One” - an obscure airstrip in the Tabas Desert. Random? Not if you know your history. 2/5

Talks on Iran are finally underway in Oman. One detail says a lot about how Tehran is framing this moment 1/5

Quote from The Earth Transformed by @peterfrankopan.bsky.social

The message that must be the clarion call to mitigate climate change Earth will survive us and other species will flourish as a result just as we did To suggest otherwise is simply hubris The sooner we realise that the greater the chances we don’t disappear as a species @peterfrankopan.bsky.social 🎯

Playing with Fire in the Gulf: Why the Margin for Error Is Shrinking Fast The chances for things to go wrong with Iran have increased sharply in the last 24 hours.

I've written about this in #GlobalThreads. Link here open.substack.com/pub/peterfra...

This is how tinder gets set for crises to spiral: fewer channels, more suspicion, hotter tempers, poorer choices. The danger isn’t intent alone; it’s miscalculation. 4/5

And now Tehran is shifting the shape of talks with Washington - changing venue, tyring to narrow who’s in the room, limiting talking points. The creates assymmetry that might seem comforting, but is not helpful 3/5

Hostile manoeuvres in Hormuz; a drone flying too close to a US carrier. These aren’t 'messages' so much as tests of luck. And in a crowded theatre, luck runs out fast 2/5

The last 24 hours around Iran have been a textbook lesson in how crises escalate: jittery moves, mixed signals and shrinking room for errors. When nerves fray, even small moves have consequences 1/5

These are the key points; much more detail on my S*bstack though.

Iran: the window is narrowing as the US moves into position Lining up the northern border; US-Israel co-ordination; the ongoing build-up of military assets

This is a fast-moving situation now. But I’ve laid out what’s happening - and why it matters - for paid subscribers on #GlobalThreads 6/6 /ENDS open.substack.com/pub/peterfra...

The US is still getting into position - with air defences, growlers, kit that's needed for a substantial hit. That leaves a narrowing window for diplomacy. This evening,
Iran has stated that negotiations are impossible 5/6

Preparations too in Iran as old bunkers assessed, metro stations being re-tooled and public preparation now under way This is what escalation looks like before it breaks the surface 4/6

This level of alignment only happens for one reason 3/6

High-level diplomatics are underway - from unusual attention to Turkmenistan to a (very) senior Israeli military delegation that just back from Washington 2/6

With significant US assets being moved into place, background noise re Iran is giving way to a theatre that is warming up 1/6

I loved working on this with Alfredo - a brilliant scholar and author ! Do please read; it is a wonderful achievement and you will enjoy it !

Starmer's fraught visit to China will tell us what he really thinks of the UK's place in the world | Peter Frankopan Does Britain have any leverage over human rights or security concerns or is it a decaying nation that cannot risk trade relations, asks professor of global history Peter Frankopan

“Starmer will surely need a stiff drink on the plane to Beijing as he works through what cards he has to play…”
@peterfrankopan.bsky.social
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Yes !

🙏🙏🙏