Ryan Israelsen

Does political partisanship shape how people react to banking crises?

At our latest 'Finance in the Tuscan Hills' seminar, @israelsen.bsky.social presented research showing that Republican-leaning areas were more likely to trigger bank runs during the SVB collapse. 🏦📉

fbf.eui.eu/events/?id=5...

That’s reassuring

What about your calf?

Here’s what it looked like before it washed away.

This is the dock from the Florence rowing club as it is washing away from the torrential rains in the Arno River. It’s probably in the Tyrrhenian Sea now. The boathouse is under the Uffizi Galleries. I’ve been able to row there with the EUI.

I guess I won’t be rowing again any time soon. There goes the Florence Rowing Club’s dock in the rising waters of the Arno.

Congratulations! Love that paper.

It is. Thanks.

Incredible! My last attempt was interrupted by an urgent phone call.

Competing narratives from ‘61

Welcome @alexchinco.bsky.social to BlueSky! Alex is one of the best writers in finance academia. I don't know if he'll post regularly, but I'd encourage everyone to follow him.

Good idea. Using sentiment analysis @israelsen.bsky.social, eitan goldman and I found that the same corporate financial news is covered differently in the NYT vs WSJ based on corporations’ politics www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Thanks. It really shows that the impact is heterogenous.

… and soft-core ones.

Thanks for sharing!

Bring it on the ski lift.

For reference, here is the future 12 month return of the Russell 3000 index over that period. It is rarely negative over a year.

Incredible that the number has only ever been above 50% one other time.

LLM‘s use random seeds. If you feed it the prompt 100 times it will give you slightly different answers. You could try that and then see how close the essays are on average.

Unfortunately, I don't know of any such free service. Depending on where you live, you may be able to access databased like Refinitiv, Bloomberg, FactSet, etc. at a public library.

Stock price is correct if you look at the original unadjusted prices in the CRSP database. BTW, I just checked the first two stocks and the dividends per share (annual) look pretty much like the first number.

My guess is the first set of numbers is a dividend yield (though I haven't checked), the 2nd number is the P-E ratio (rounded to integer), the 3rd number is volume (in hundreds) -though CRSP shows a higher number. Not sure about "u". maybe it has to do with what happened to prices near the close?

Also, the 2nd company ACF Industries had 1978 (GAAP?) earnings of 4.72 per share which makes their P/E 7.36

Fiscal year 1978 (street) earnings per share were 2.48. I think that is what would be used in the P/E Ratio. 1979 wouldn't have been announced yet. That would make it 16.63

What date is the article from? That might help.

Very interesting! Thanks for sharing. I will read it carefully.

Timely research!

10/ Read the full paper here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....