"Estée Lauder $EL sues perfumer Jo Malone for breach of contract" (FT)
"Bound to a block on her using “Jo Malone” for commercial reasons, in 2021, Malone set up a new perfume brand, Jo Loves"
Product last year had "wording “A creation by Jo Malone CBE”"
"Airlines Raising Fares Amid Wild Oil-Price Swings" (Bloomberg)
Usually planes keep flying even with high fuel prices, in part due to regulations (empty planes during COVID)
But this time flights to Middle East are getting cancelled
$GE $RTX $SAF $RR
Fox News host Brian Kilmead to oil tankers, 3 days ago: "Show some guts and go through that Strait"
CNN today: "6 ships attacked in just 2 days in Persian Gulf ... with strikes on 2 foreign oil tankers in Iraqi waters"
S&P US High Yield Corporate Bond Index currently has a Yield-to-Maturity of 7.23% (vs. 6.99% on 26-Feb, before US/Israeli attacks on Iran began)
cc: $MCO $SPGI
"Google $GOOG sells partial stake in fiber business, becomes minority owner of new venture" (CNBC)
"Launched in 2010, an early effort by Google to build ultra-fast fiber-optic broadband networks in the US"
cc: $CMCSA $CHTR
"Iran Expands War With Major Cyberattack Against US Company" (WSJ)
"Thousands of ... cellphones and laptops were suddenly disabled"
"Stryker $SYK ... told its roughly 56k ... to disconnect from all networks and avoid turning on company-issued devices"
"Investors demand steep concessions in Salesforce’s $CRM $25bn bond deal" (FT)
"The 30-year bonds were rated A+ by S&P $SPGI (and) sold at a yield that was 1.7ppt above US Treasuries ... much higher than the spread on a Bloomberg index of single-A-rated bonds of 0.92ppt"
cc: $MCO
"Moody’s: On the Precipice Again Due to Middle East Hostilities"
Shares fell 23.5% in a month due to AI fears, but were rebounding before US/Israeli attacks on Iran began
$MCO $SPGI $MSCI
"McDonald’s $MCD Preps New Discounts to Feed Budget-Minded Diners for $3 or Less"
"That includes stronger breakfast promotions, as McDonald’s morning meals have experienced the greatest pullback from lower-income consumers"
cc: $GRG
"Three Ships Hit Near Strait of Hormuz" (WSJ)
"The US military has turned down requests to escort tankers or other civilian ships through the strait, with defense officials saying it won't do so until the threat of Iranian fire has eased"
www.wsj.com/livecoverage...
"Imitation is the highest form of flattery"
Also, his $99 webinars won't sell themselves
(just blocked him)
"Trump to Invoke Emergency Law for Offshore Oil Producer Sable"
"Sable has said its offshore wells could swiftly pump 45k to 55k barrels per day ... (and) 60k barrels per day by the end of the decade"
"15m barrels (per day) are being kept from the world market by the Hormuz closure"
Bloomberg: "Iran has told regional intermediaries that for a ceasefire, the US must guarantee neither it nor Israel will strike the country in the future"
Guarantee from Trump is worth nothing
But this means there are conditions that can satisfy Iran
Nick Train on Sage $SGE, which fell 14% in Feb-26
Mandelson statement on exit:
"Being Ambassador here has been the privilege of my life ... I continue to feel utterly awful about my association with Epstein"
Mandelson behind the scenes:
"Asked for his ... 4-year salary costs of the fixed term appointment. This would have amounted to £547,201"
$TMPL 25%+ in Financials
It was obliging of US & Israel to attack Iran only after 27-Feb market close; this helps month-end numbers
e.g. Temple Bar Investment Trust up 4.3% in Feb
But $TMPL since fallen 6.9%, now down YTD
Terry Smith: "(Value) is best done after the bear market has struck, not before"
The FT picking up on the same trend we highlighted last week
"Investors seek shelter from Iran war in US tech stocks"
"Technology has been the best-performing S&P 500 sector since the conflict began"
www.ft.com/content/fdcb...
Reminder: When a tabloid newspaper says someone "confessed" or "admitted" to something, it means they are making a claim the paper knows you won't believe
Here's the FT succumbing to the same language:
"Hegseth admitted Trump alone would decide when to end the war"
The 2021 vintage was a bad one in private equity
Of the ~50 2021 funds with disclosed performance on the CalPERS website, most have MOICs in 1.0-1.5x range
Blackstone, H&F, Thoma Bravo all at 1.2x
Silver Lake 1.3x
Only one has MOIC >2x (Cedar Street Partners)
Someone should tell Bill Ackman
"CVC warns of lower performance fees after flagship fund struggles" (FT)
"2020 flagship buyout fund ... would not generate carry until 2028 or 2029"
Fund VIII has a MOIC of 1.3x after 5 years
o/w "Realised" has €0.8bn cost but €0.5bn value
www.ft.com/content/52fd...
Thanks to Trump/Hegseth, the US may also have fired "hundreds" of Tomahawk missiles
$RTX makes ~57 of these a year
This is good news for the PRC and Russia
"Iran’s Cheap, Plentiful Weaponry Puts US Military Under Unprecedented Strain"
"Shaheds ... cost estimates running from $20k to $50k"
"Patriot PAC-3 costs ~$4m apiece"
"US and its partners in the Gulf most likely burned through well over 1,000 PAC-3 interceptors alone ... 2x the annual production"
Reminder: Bill Ackman has called for US/Israeli strikes on Iran for years, tweeted in favour after they happened
$PSH $PS $PUSA
WSJ editorials on oil reserves
2021: "Biden taps the US emergency supply ... won’t fix the supply shortage and could make it worse"
2026: "Schumer & others are criticizing Trump for not tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve ... Problem is Biden’s enormous drawdown has made this harder to do"
US petroleum reserves were actually being refilled at a slightly lower rate by Trump than by Biden
"Trump promised to fill America’s oil reserves ‘right to the top.’ A year later, oil has exceeded $100 and they’re still less than 60% full" (Fortune)
fortune.com/2026/03/09/u...
Firms listed in "lenders missed red flags" article include:
"Barclays, Jefferies and Santander, as well as US private credit firms Castlelake Capital and TPG", "Wells Fargo, Apollo through its structured credit arm Atlas SP Partners"
