Librarian Capital

Cause and effect, Korean retail investors edition

December: "The world’s best-performing stock market ... South Korea's risk-loving amateur investors"

Today: "South Korean stocks hit hardest by Iran war as market plunges 12%"

"UK Housebuilders Barratt, Vistry Announce CEO Retirements" (Bloomberg)

David Thomas has been BTRW CEO for 11 years
Greg Fitzgerald has been VTY CEO for 9 years, "has shaped the group through a series of deals"

Both $BTRW and $VTY have halved in the past 5 years
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Croda: Back to the Treadmill After Brief Rebound Restructuring expected to drive new 2028 targets; shares rose initially but have since fallen back 10%+.

"Croda: Back to the Treadmill After Brief Rebound"

Restructuring expected to drive new 2028 targets; shares rose initially but have since fallen back 10%+

$CRDA $ASH

“Trump plans to invade Spain”

ITC Opens Probe Into Illicit Vape Market in US After Complaint The US International Trade Commission opened an investigation into illicit vaping products sold in the country, following a complaint from subsidiaries of Reynolds American Inc.

ITC Opens Probe Into Illicit Vape Market in US After Complaint

$BATS "Reynolds firms filed a complaint with the ITC in January against 16 companies ... (including) Heaven Gifts International, the company behind Elf Bar and Geek Bar vapes

cc: $MO $PM

Brown‑Forman $BF.B ending flavored malt beverages RTD partnership with Pabst Brewing (est. 2021)

"Effective July 7, 2026, Brown‑Forman will assume management of the supply, sales, marketing, and distribution for these products"

Greggs $GRG FY25*

FY25 sales +2.4% LfL in managed shops, +6.8% total
Underlying PBT -9.4%
UL EPS -10.7% (122.8p)

YTD (9 weeks) sales +1.6% LfL, +6.3% total

FY26 guidance unchanged: "profits at a similar underlying level", improvement if better macro

* Q4 update given on 8-Jan

Stores > online, $TPB nicotine pouches edition

"We continue to make progress expanding FRE's distribution to large regional & national c-store chains and ALP, already one of the top D2C pouch brands in America, has started to appear on bricks-and-mortar shelves in select retailer tests"

$HAYPP

Croda $CRDA Operating Profit across 10 years

2016: £298m (£/$ = 1.35)
2025: £295m (£/$ = 1.32)

(2015 £/$ was 1.53, being before Brexit referendum)

Bunzl $BNZL 2025

Revenue +3.0% ex-FX, +0.6% in £
Adj. EBIT -4.3% ex-FX, -6.7% in £
Adj. EPS -7.7% in £

Ex-FX, Adj. EBIT:
-11.5% N America
-3.6% Cont. Europe
+13.3% UK&I after Nisbets acq.
+5.4% RoW but -0.6% in £

2026 outlook
Moderate revenue growth
EBIT Margin "slightly down"

Bunzl $BNZL CEO, CFO, Corp. Dev. Director all bought shares after they crashed 26% in one day last April

They paid £23.27-23.63
11 months on, shares are ~4% lower at £22.46

who made this

$TPB vs. $BTC vs. $HAYPP (in SEK)

Turning Point Brands $TPB shares down ~20% after 25Q4 results

2026 guidance sees Modern Oral Net Revenues $180-190m, vs. 25Q4 run-rate $165m ($41.3m actual, +266%)

Gross Revenues guided as $220-240m, but raising investments and some of these will be accounted as contra revenues

Zoetis $ZTS to Acquire Animal Genomics Business from Neogen $NEOG for $160m

"A leader in US beef and dairy genomics, and its cutting-edge technologies enable highly accurate, scalable genetic testing and deeper insights into animal health, productivity and sustainability"

$GNS

Fundsmith / Nike $NKE: We highlighted how Terry Smith was "not too worried about" Nike at last year's AGM in Feb-25

1 year later, they have just disclosed they exited in Jan-26
Nike share price down ~20% in the past year

Fundsmith portfolio changes are not reliable signals

Fundsmith exited Nike $NKE in Feb-26

Lost -1.0% in Feb-26 vs. MSCI World +2.8% gain
Now down -2.3% YTD vs. MSCI World +3.0%

Top 5 detractors in Feb: Novo Nordisk, Waters $WAT, $ADP, $META, $MSFT

$NOVO no longer listed among top 10
Replaced by LVMH $MC

Rightmove $RMV: Lorna Tilbian, NED and veteran media analyst, bought ~£1m worth of shares

"HF manager" has retconned his Philip Morris $PM short to be "small" and "against other Staples longs"

PM share price has risen 22% since he claimed to be short back in November, after 52-week lows

Croda $CRDA shares down 5%

It may actually benefit from higher oil prices (list prices linked to commodity prices) and supply chain disruption (customers ordering "just in case"), though there are other moving parts

Article from the summer below

Sony battles £2bn lawsuit claiming UK PlayStation users are overcharged for games Download purchasers over past decade could be eligible for compensation if class action succeeds

"Sony battles £2bn lawsuit claiming UK PlayStation users are overcharged for games" (FT)

While "brought by consumer champion Alex Neill", this is another class action lawsuit backed by a litigation funder, in this case a firm called Woodsford, in 2022

"UK banks now trade above tangible book value"

$NWG $LLOY $BARC

www.ft.com/content/cfab...

I don't think the same group of investors selling RMV and AUTO are those holding or selling MONY less

Hotels: UK Competition & Markets Authority probe

"Investigation into suspected sharing of competitively sensitive information among competing hotel chains – Hilton, IHG Hotels and Marriott – using the hotel data analytics tool STR, owned by CoStar"

$IHG $HLT $MAR $CSGP

Rightmove: Not Disrupted by AI, Historically Cheap Core Revenue growth continues to be in 8-10% range, but shares are near 5-year lows and P/E is <16x.

"Rightmove: Not Disrupted by AI, Historically Cheap"

Core Revenue growth continues to be in 8-10% range, but shares are near 5-year lows and P/E is <16x

$RMV $CSGP

America’s Ranks of Immigrant Truckers Find a Roadblock: English Tests Over the past year, more than 10,700 truckers failed an English test disqualifying them from driving.

"Over the past year, >10,700 truckers failed English test, disqualifying them from driving"

This compares with only "a handful" in 2021-24

"200k immigrants in the US hold non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses ... >5% of all commercial driver’s licenses nationwide in 2024"

Jeremy Corbyn was paid by an Iranian state TV station that was complicit in the forced confession of a tortured journalist Corbyn appeared on an Iranian TV channel which was banned from Ofcom after airing the forced confession of a journalist.

"Jeremy Corbyn was paid by an Iranian state TV station that was complicit in the forced confession of a tortured journalist"

The billionaires’ kids will pay no price. But American kids have already died for a war of vanity and choice. A war that will result in hardline leadership remaining in Iran and no meaningful impact on their nuclear program. A likely moral and strategic disaster.