Iikka Korhonen

Yes, maybe. And Ladurie is dead, so…

Russia pays Europe’s saboteurs in crypto, says Polish official Warsaw’s national security chief says Moscow is also using a shadow fleet to launch drones into European airspace

Well, what else do you use it for?
🇵🇱
”Lawmakers in Poland’s lower house last month approved a bill to tighten regulation of the crypto asset market, including prison sentences for those who fail to comply with oversight rules”

on.ft.com/4nZ3yRV Russia pays Europe’s saboteurs in crypto

Global economy chugging along, the euro area growing slightly above 1% this year and next...

Russia's GDP growth downgraded quite a bit especially 2025, but also 2026, 0.6% and 1.0%, respectively.

China GDP 2025 and 2026 4.8% and 4.2%, growth continues to decelerate.

www.imf.org/en/Publicati...

Russian consumer prices October 7 up 40.0% from end-2021, and +4.6% from end-2024. Gasoline up 32.9% from end-2021, and +10.4% from end-2024.

Avner Grief, Joel Mokyr, and Guido Tabellini The starkly different paths of economic and institutional development followed by China and the West is often attributed largely to the Industrial Revolution. This column argues that institutions and culture played a key role in setting Europe and China on divergent paths well before the onset of the Industrial Revolution, but the role they played was mediated by a critical difference between the two civilisations: the nature of their prevalent social organisations. A key factor behind China’s remarkable economic resurgence has been its capacity to adapt traditional institutions and cultural practices to the needs of a modern economy.

Nobel Laureate Joel Mokyr, Avner Greif, & Guido Tabellini discuss their recent book in which they argue institutions and culture played a key role in setting Europe and China on divergent paths of economic and political development.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

How to Predict China’s Economic Performance for 2025: A Sectoral Approach GDP growth means something fundamentally different in China than in most countries.

4/4
As long as Beijing is willing to tolerate extremely rapid rises in debt, GDP growth doesn't tell us much about the health of the economy. What matters is the components of growth and how growth was achieved.
carnegieendowment.org/posts/2025/0...

Ukraine war briefing: Crimea oil refinery burns as Russia feels effects on fuel supply Glide bombs knock out power supply and hit hospital in Kharkiv; Zelenskyy lining up Trump meeting with Tomahawks hot topic. What we know on day 1,329

”..,oil terminal at Feodosia in the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula was burning on Monday after an attack by Ukrainian drones.”
🇺🇦
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/o...

”most of the lumber and furniture tariffs are set to snap even higher in the new year — with upholstered wooden products subject to a 30% rate and kitchen cabinets and vanities at 50% as of Jan. 1.”

”Roughly 7% of all goods used in new residential construction come from foreign suppliers”

Trump’s Lumber Tariffs Take Hold, Threatening to Hike Home Costs The US is now collecting tariffs on imported timber, lumber, kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities and upholstered furniture, duties that threaten to raise the cost of renovations and deter new home pur...

”..initially set at 25% for cabinets, vanities and upholstered wooden furniture — officially took effect on Tuesday at 12:01 a.m. New York time. Imports of softwood timber and lumber, meanwhile, are newly subject to 10% fees.”
”National security”, yes🇺🇸
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Exclusive: Spain the frontrunner for Chinese carmaker BYD's third European plant, sources say China's No. 1 automaker BYD considers Spain to be its top candidate for a third car factory to serve the European market, two people briefed on the matter told Reuters, as the company seeks to grow sales on the continent.

Exclusive: Spain the frontrunner for Chinese carmaker BYD's third European plant, sources say reut.rs/4oD7zLZ

Russia pays Europe’s saboteurs in crypto, says Polish official Warsaw’s national security chief says Moscow is also using a shadow fleet to launch drones into European airspace

Well, what else do you use it for?
🇵🇱
”Lawmakers in Poland’s lower house last month approved a bill to tighten regulation of the crypto asset market, including prison sentences for those who fail to comply with oversight rules”

on.ft.com/4nZ3yRV Russia pays Europe’s saboteurs in crypto

Russia exports less coal than before the full-scale invasion and must sell what it exports at a discount.

Russia’s coal miners buckle under sanctions, weak prices and war Sector’s worst crisis in 30 years underscores how some industries risk lasting damage from Ukraine invasion

sector racked up losses of Rbs225bn ($2.8bn) in the first seven months of the year, according to Russia’s state statistics agency, double 2024’s total, when it was the country’s worst performing industry. In 2023, the sector generated profits of nearly Rbs375bn ($4.6bn).
🇷🇺
on.ft.com/4nTNGjM

“Coal producers are having a tough time,” Vladimir Putin acknowledged”
🇷🇺

”War is bad for most of the Russian businesses, if not all of them. But the coal sector is in really deep shit,” one of Russia’s top businessmen told the Financial Times.”

Measuring What Matters: Why Italy May Be in Better Fiscal Shape than the US Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

Both Italy and US are not on the sustainable fiscal paths, but that data shows that US is actually in worse shape than Italy, when the fiscal gap is properly measured... www.nber.org/papers/w3434...

China's exports to Russia in September $8.7 bn, down 21% y/y

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2025 The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2025 was awarded “for having explained innovation-driven economic growth” with one half to Joel Mokyr “for having identified ...

Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt

#econsky

www.nobelprize.org/prizes/econo...

Klassikon paluu!

New Chinese Sept trade data out this morning - here's the picture for the EU

- China's exports to EU up 14.2%
- China's imports from EU up 9.4%
- Despite rebound in import number, trade surplus up 20% because of China's surging exports, to $22.85bn in Sept

All USD, year on year

Poland demands Germany stop Nord Stream attack prosecutions Also in this newsletter: How to end Europe’s dangerous reliance on US weapons

"European purchases of US arms hit a record high of $76bn 2024, according to a @bruegel.org paper authored by Juan Mejino-López & Guntram Wolff, who analysed 1,179 notifications under the US Foreign Military Sales programme since 2008."
@financialtimes.com Henry Foy
www.ft.com/content/4131...

Trump administration says immigration enforcement threatens higher food prices U.S. farmers face labor shortages and potential food price hikes due to Trump’s immigration policy, the administration acknowledged in a Federal Registry document.

Trump’s immigration crackdown is risking higher food prices for Americans, according to the Trump admin itself. 
DOL warned in an obscure document last week that “near total cessation of the inflow of illegal aliens” is threatening “stability of domestic food production and prices for US consumers.”

“Coal producers are having a tough time,” Vladimir Putin acknowledged”
🇷🇺

”War is bad for most of the Russian businesses, if not all of them. But the coal sector is in really deep shit,” one of Russia’s top businessmen told the Financial Times.”

Russia exports less coal than before the full-scale invasion and must sell what it exports at a discount.

Russia’s coal miners buckle under sanctions, weak prices and war Sector’s worst crisis in 30 years underscores how some industries risk lasting damage from Ukraine invasion

sector racked up losses of Rbs225bn ($2.8bn) in the first seven months of the year, according to Russia’s state statistics agency, double 2024’s total, when it was the country’s worst performing industry. In 2023, the sector generated profits of nearly Rbs375bn ($4.6bn).
🇷🇺
on.ft.com/4nTNGjM

Nederland grijpt hard in bij chipfabrikant Nexperia uit angst voor lekken chipkennis naar China Intellectueel eigendom: Het ministerie van Economische Zaken legt de bedrijfsvoering van chipfabrikant Nexperia grotendeels stil, om te voorkomen dat chipkennis naar China weglekt.

Dutch newspaper NRC with new detail:

"This is an exceptional emergency measure intended to prevent IP related to chips from disappearing abroad. According to insiders, there were indications that Nexperia was planning to leak chip knowledge to China."

www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2025/...

Ukraine hit Russian energy sites with US help Trump administration has supported Kyiv’s operations since summer in a co-ordinated push to weaken Moscow

”US intelligence helps Kyiv shape route planning, altitude, timing and mission decisions, enabling Ukraine’s long-range, one-way attack drones to evade Russian air defences”
🇺🇦🇺🇸
on.ft.com/3KMwsWG Ukraine hit Russian energy sites with US help

‘This is existential’: Donald Trump’s tariffs drive US car sector into turmoil Michigan’s ‘Big Three’ carmakers forecast a combined $7bn tariff-related hit to earnings in 2025

”..the Big Three — are forecasting a combined $7bn tariff-related hit to their earnings in 2025, while the thousands of companies that supply them are reeling from disrupted supply chains, reduced cash flow and higher product prices.”
🇺🇸
on.ft.com/42AWuSS

‘This is existential’: Donald Trump’s tariffs drive US car sector into turmoil Michigan’s ‘Big Three’ carmakers forecast a combined $7bn tariff-related hit to earnings in 2025

”..the Big Three — are forecasting a combined $7bn tariff-related hit to their earnings in 2025, while the thousands of companies that supply them are reeling from disrupted supply chains, reduced cash flow and higher product prices.”
🇺🇸
on.ft.com/42AWuSS

Thrilled to see our decade-long research agenda with Teresa Fort and Felix Tintelnot on firm-level approaches to global value chains featured in the latest NBER Reporter. What a ride!

Link: www.nber.org/reporter/202...

Japan’s aspiring leader drums to relieve stress. She has many reasons to reach for her sticks | CNN Staunch conservative and longtime lawmaker Sanae Takaichi is days away from becoming Japan’s first woman prime minister, and she inherits a daunting list of challenges.

The new leader of 🇯🇵 Japan’s LDP, Sanae Takaichi, loves heavy metal!🤘

“Since drumming in a college band, the 64-year-old politician has remained a fan of groups like Black Sabbath and Iron Maiden. She used to play so hard that she carried four pairs of sticks as back-up in case they snapped.”