@ryankatzrosene.bsky.social
Professor studying contentious CLIMATE POLITICS. Especially interested in aviation/high-speed rail; nuclear; green/de-growth; meat production/consumption; and all things Canada🇨🇦. Co-Host http://EcopoliticsPodcast.ca Views are my own (not my employer's)!
Every month is getting warmer. Every 'day' is getting warmer too (on average).
I'll take "Things that disprove global warming is caused by Urban Heat Island effects for 1000 Alex"
[The map shows the long-term trends in temperature change over the period from 1948 to 2024 at the regional level, in Canada.]
Maybe by 2300? 😅
Climate change is making a few remote parts of the high-Arctic more livable!
Just kidding, the actual takeaway is: "In the hottest hours of the year, some locations have already experienced ‘unlivable’ conditions (i.e., when no activity is possible to compensate for environmental heat loads)."
However, as Zeke notes, 2023 started off similarly, yet it far exceeded warming expectations (and broke the record at that time). That could have been the result of a strong El Niño coming after a triple-dip Niña, but there is still uncertainty around this. Where will 2026 end up?
It's looking increasingly likely that a very strong El Niño could develop by end of year. Climate modellers expect this could bring record high global temperatures next year (2027). This year will still be warm, but still unlikely to break the record.
www.theclimatebrink.com/p/the-el-nin...
“Returning to 1.5 °C does not return the world we knew. Species gone will remain gone. Migration routes will be severed. Forests may have turned to cropland, or asphalt, or memory. “The path up and the path down are not mirror images,” Trisos said. Cooling does not retrace the route.”
True, but it does make you feel better
Another bird study☹️ "half of the 261 species analyzed showed significant declines from 1987 to 2021, and a quarter showed accelerating declines. Hotspots of accelerating abundance decline were located in regions with high-intensity agriculture (high cropland area, fertilizer use, or pesticide use)."
I read this as Nathan being somewhat reluctant to say global warming is definitively accelerating… “we have some evidence…but…”
www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar...
I read this as Nathan being somewhat reluctant to say global warming is definitively accelerating… “we have some evidence…but…”
www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar...
Yeah, still no global decoupling. Though we may be close…
Decoupling
Jet fuel prices in the US nearly hit $4/gallon by end of last week. The only times they've gone over that (at least since 1990) are after the 2008 financial crisis, and during the 2022 post-COVID inflation crisis. Americans love air travel and they will not be amused.
“Up to 52% of future surface temperatures and 38% of air temperatures in the Amazonian lowlands can cause heat mortality in half of the studied community. Our data suggest a limited capacity of insects in the Earth’s most biodiverse regions to buffer future warming.” www.nature.com/articles/s41...
That seems not so banal
True, and it will be fascinating to see how this plays out this time (it's one reason I wrote 'could'). My sense is that post-COVID rebound demand, plus energy demand growth generally, offset the declining demand from higher prices. Guess we'll see!
How will the War in Iran impact Climate Change overall? I'm assuming it *could* end up marking another one of these 'blips' in the trajectory of Global Fossil CO2 emissions growth - akin to other global-scale crises affected energy markets.
🤦🏻♂️
🥹“Everything we can save is worth saving. Everything we can do is worth doing. Every 10th of a degree we can prevent of temperature rise saves…species, communities. Of course we’re going to lose a lot - we’ve already lost a lot - but we don’t have to lose everything, and we don’t have to surrender”
Dumb for sure, but a desperate measure to try to bring down price of oil
There’s debate on this.
It kills me that this is probably why Carney didn’t condemn the US’ international war crimes last week
Oil and natural gas prices are spiking, and it seems likely that a forthcoming wave of inflation is coming. This is an interesting article linking it all to potential increases in food inflation (and thus food insecurity): theconversation.com/how-the-iran...
“Warming proceeding faster is not unexpected by climate models, but it is a cause of concern and shows how insufficient the efforts to slow and eventually stop global warming under the Paris Climate Accord have so far been.”
Price of oil now higher than the post-Russian invasion of Ukraine period. Thanks Mr. FIFA Peace President! 🙄
Also, can we delink our economies from fossil fuels already? FFS!
