Novocast Analysis

Noticed a pattern with #SAFC signings so far, regarding Percentiles for:

<Progressive Carries> /
<Progressive Passes Received>

• Sadiki 86 / 93
• Diarra 88 / 92
• Talbi 98 / 83
• Adingra 66 / 89

Built for counters without over relying on hoof-ball, as carries allow for more off-ball movement

@mixedknuts.bsky.social

Does Statsbomb have data on the Space Received and Receipt Value *at the point of pass*

If you can calculate the gain between the Moments of Pass and Receipt, can that be a proxy for clever movement?

So a hypothetical comparison how they improved the values with movement

Well, we might have our "The Guy" in Neil's role now haha

Fair argument, though I'm basing it on current competition for places, rather than advocating for their relative quality vs any future unconfirmed signings

Senne Lammens signing would probably displace Patto, and Neil is the club captain so gets a selection bias, but I think he has a low ceiling

🔴 #SAFC Squad Depth⚪️

▪️Defenders needed urgently
▪️El Khannouss may move ahead of Rigg & Roberts as CAM & RW cover
▪️Triantis likely to stay until CB's signed
▪️New signings have plugged vital gaps and raised the floor of the squad

(Chart based on @scott.cannonstats.com design)

🔴 #SAFC Squad Building ⚪

• CB Upgrades/Cover Essential
• Seelt, Huggins, Triantis may need another loan
• Khannouss may push Rigg wide & mean Roberts drops down the order
• Patterson & Mundle gaining interest
• Moore, Browne, Roberts phased out longer term
• Adore 0'Nien, but he won't be Prem level

El Khannoussi's Forward Passes in the Premier League (24/25 Season)

🔴#SAFC El Khannoussi Rumours ⚪

If the fee is ~£20m max, then it's a good signing

✅Exceptional ball control & dribbling
✅Quite combative for a creative player
✅CAM & LW cover, can play RW or deeper if necessary

❌Poor shot choice & execution
❌Progressive passer, but iffy completion %

#SAFC

Bafodé Diakité would be an interesting signing, if rumours true

• High Pass Volume
• High Pass Comp %
• High Aerial Duel %
• Set Piece Threat
• Decent Carries & Recoveries

But poor progression & iffy ground duel numbers

Right sided too - maybe Ballard competition/rotation?

#SAFC

I know too little about Diarra to judge the fee, but this has been a good summer for Sunderland

Great prospects, without breaking the bank and still loads of PSR headroom despite £100m spend

Still need a major CB signing & Lauriente could signal an end for Roberts

#SAFC

Josimar is, quite simply, irreplaceable. It's the only outlet dedicated to investigative reporting in football; one of the last places trying to keep the game honest. If you want a better future for football, please consider supporting Josimar.

THEY HAVE DONE IT!

SUNDERLAND ARE GOING TO WEMBLEY!!!!!!!

#SAFC

210 near-flawless minutes from Dan Ballard, capped by a 122nd-minute winner. Absolutely incredible!! The playoffs!!!

Beautiful Bastard Ballard

One or two better moments in transition, but a half to regret for #SAFC

Still too wasteful and constantly inviting pressure with unforced turnovers

Taking off Isidor was the right call, but we need more fresh legs. Roberts needs taken off, and one or two of Mundle, Browne or Watson needed

And finally a cross connects...

Terrible in transition and we've relied on their crosses not connecting so far

Need to sort out the attacking dynamic. Lazy tracking back from Mayenda & Isidor after turnovers, and too many sloppy or overhit passes

We give away possession when we should be using it as a reprieve

Brilliant Ballard

Regis Le Bris explains his stance on making Sunderland substitutions Sunderland head coach Regis Le Bris is hoping the return of a number of injured players will enable him to be more creative with his substitutions.

🔴⚪️ Why has Regis Le Bris been making so few substitutions in recent games? The #SAFC boss explains his thinking - and why it might change in the future…

Read here…⬇️

Fun fact: According to their most recent accounts, Bodø/Glimt's entire annual wage bill is less than what it cost Manchester United to fire Erik ten Hag.

bsky.app/profile/novo...

I've written quite comprehensive pieces about this on X actually, about our pressing in the opening minutes of the QPR & Leeds games

I'll dig them out & tidy them up on Substack as archived posts, then send you the links

Agree though - usually a wider back line, sacrificing pressure on their CBs

Think I’ve finally understood why people are migrating to blue sky over X

Especially after #SAFC matches it has just become a cesspool of over the top negativity and idiocy

Going to give Blue Sky more of a go with threads in January also because it is so draining to read

#SAFC

🔴 Roberts' Finishing 📉 ⚪

Using xG On Target (xGOT), Patrick Roberts' shot quality *reduces* the probability of a chance becoming a goal (xG) by:

[# of Shots in brackets]

3 Season Average ~ 8% (129)
2 Season Average ~ 12% (74)
24/25 Season ~ 26% (31)

#SunderlandAFC #SAFC

Sunderland's 0-0 draw with West Brom last night means #SAFC have drawn their last five EFL Championship games, and dropped from five points clear to third (fourth if Leeds beat Luton tonight)

After a roaring start, have #SAFC performances dropped off, or just results?

A look at xG for/against:

*something something regression to the mean*

I am immensely proud of this young squad & what they achieved so far this season, but I've also complained consistently about our iffy fundamentals

Weakening press, overly direct progression, lack of bravery in central areas, average chance creation

Tom Bradshaw should be on the diagram, not Honeyman - apologies

🔴 Failure to Recover ⚪

I haven't had time to finish my write up yet, but here's a quick explainer for #SAFC 's ball recovery issues against Millwall's long balls in the second half 👇

substack.com/profile/2240...

(Blue: Ball movement)
(White: Player movements)
(Green: Suggested movement)

1/ 🧵 Sunderland have missed Jobe Bellingham recently.

Here’s a recent Twitter thread we did rejigged for Bluesky analysing his 24/25 season so far based on:

🔴 540 mins in the Championship
⚪️ Key strengths, areas to improve
🔴Stats vs peers and team role in Le Bris’ system.

Let’s dive in: 👇

#SAFC