Justin Lahart

Preliminary Umich survey period straddled the start of the war. Interesting breakdown on gasoline and inflation expectations =

Opinion | Iran War Will Lower Energy Prices The risk of regime violence has long been baked into the global price of oil and gas—and everything else.

Iran War Will Lower Energy Prices
By Peter Navarro

"Roughly a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade transits the Persian Gulf.... When markets price crude oil, they must account for the risk that conflict, sabotage and terrorism will interrupt these flows." www.wsj.com/opinion/iran...

I can still remember the reaction I got when I sent some of the epidemic curves Wall Street was cooking up to actual epidemiologists

But Claudia, if you fit the rise in oil prices to a normal distribution this will all be over in two weeks!

Karen Petrou, the Blind Banking Analyst Who Saw the Future of Finance, Dies at 72 With the aural equivalent of a photographic memory, she advised financial companies on regulatory and public-policy issues.

This obituary for Karen Petrou is well worth your time www.wsj.com/business/kar...

Why the Global Elite Gave Up on Spelling and Grammar From Epstein’s associates to Jack Dorsey to David Ellison, the rich and powerful share a seeming disregard for proper English.

is it laziness, illiteracy or the ultimate flex ?

missives from titans of business and politics show a striking disregard for spelling, punctuation and proper grammar

To give you a sense of how big a deal this is: Summers’ PhD advisor made NBER what it is today

Exclusive | National Bureau of Economic Research Cuts Ties With Larry Summers The former Treasury secretary and Harvard president is no longer affiliated with America’s leading economics organization.

Larry Summers is no longer part of the NBER www.wsj.com/us-news/educ...

The Long-Feared Persian Gulf Oil Squeeze Is Upon Us Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has ground to a virtual halt, unleashing the most severe energy crisis since the 1970s.

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has ground to a virtual halt, unleashing the most severe energy crisis since the 1970s and sending oil prices soaring nearly 60%.

This Goldman chart is not aging well

How the WSJ Tracked Claims of Assault Against Immigration Agents on.wsj.com/3PmWPoi

That makes sense. I can imagine a lot of construction not getting started, for example

Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

Curious on weather: Why didn't it show up here? data.bls.gov/timeseries/L...

My redo of the chart CEA used to do way back when

How War in Iran Is Colliding With Trump’s Economic Priorities A promise to steady the economy helped the president win voters in 2024. The attack on Iran could undermine that support, months before the midterms.

Today's weak jobs report underscores that the Iran war comes at a fragile time for the economy.

Before the war, low gasoline prices were helping tame inflation, and mortgage rates were edging down. Now gas prices and mortgage rates are ticking up.

www.wsj.com/economy/cons...

Population Level - 55 Yrs. & over Population Level - 55 Yrs. & over

A whole bunch more old people in these American states, apparently (click through to see revision) alfred.stlouisfed.org/series?seid=...

She also looks as if she is taking issue with something the Economist has written

But did you really write "hotch-potch"?

U.S. officials and lawmakers with access to classified information say the Trump administration’s assertions about threats from Iran are incomplete, unsubstantiated, or flat-out wrong. 🔗 on.wsj.com/3MUdsqQ

Just curious: Will the well-known economist from the N.W.T. be there, or is he kinda busy these days?

Thanks! It’s funny, I always think about weather effects during the reference week, but of course they must matter for the survey week, too

Here it’s the survey week we care about, right?

Core goods excluding used cars and trucks. Maybe some tariff pass through there.

Gabbard Whistleblower Complaint Based on Intercepted Conversation About Jared Kushner The substance of the conversation, which covered in part issues related to Iran, isn’t known.

News: The top-secret whistleblower complaint against Tulsi Gabbard is related to a conversation intercepted last spring in which two foreign nationals discussed Jared Kushner, according to U.S. officials familiar with the matter. www.wsj.com/politics/nat...

What Sweeping Revisions and a Blowout Month Tell Us About the U.S. Job Market From the Biden to Trump economies, healthcare keeps surging.

The mixed jobs picture reflects surging demand for people in healthcare and social services but a bleaker environment for government employees, factory workers and cubicle dwellers.

healthcare ftw

I'm pleased to share the release of the 2026 International AI Safety Report, for which I was a reviewer. The report represents the largest global collaboration on AI safety to date. Learn more here: internationalaisafetyreport.org/publication/...

Punk control sales in Dec., and downward revisions to Oct. and Nov.

Spelling bee only uses base R

This Is Why It’s So Hard to Find a Job Right Now A ‘deep freeze’ has enveloped the U.S. labor market. A whole bunch of factors are at play.

The pace of hiring in America has dropped precipitously, and there isn’t a single reason why.

Instead, there are a lot of them.
www.wsj.com/economy/jobs...