Jarmo Kikstra

A dancing rainbow!

P.S. if I split out 'progressive/left' and call D66 and Volt 'progressive centre' then we find this picture

Yann Quilcaille: The 100 Most Influential Climate Leaders of 2025 Find out why Yann Quilcaille is on TIME's 2025 list of the 100 most influential leaders driving business climate action.

I'm proud to be part of the 2025 #TIME100Climate list of influential leaders.

Link to the full list of 2025 #TIME100Climate
time.com/collections/...

Link to my page in the 2025 #TIME100Climate
time.com/collections/...

Minor update in morning estimate

I'm assuming Ipsos just shares the data directly with NOS, not anything else. The NOS website reads "© NOS. Bron: IPSOS, in opdracht van NOS en RTL"

Ah fair question - no I just based it on the news reporting.
Do you have a link?

No changes in the 21:30 exitpoll update.

Dutch general elections happened today.
First exit poll is here.

Dutch elections not easy to cover / explain: so many parties (~15)!

Since last year, I'm trying to track the votes by party colour - here's how I grouped it.
github.com/jkikstra/ele...

The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures Abstract. While the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) physical science reports usually assess a handful of future scenarios, the Working Group III contribution on climate mitigation to ...

In addition to @openclimatedata.net on AR5; section 2.1.2 tried to summarise this for all ARs: gmd.copernicus.org/articles/15/...

After writing it, I also wanted to do this. So if you embark on it I'm keen to help. I did already collect even older emissions data (RCP, AR4, SRES, even IS92!)

📣 Last days to apply as a Chapter Scientist to support author teams for IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report.

The deadline for applications is 18 October 2025.

More details: lnkd.in/dGvmmWeC

Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon majors - Nature Climate change made 213 historical heatwaves reported over 2000–2023 more likely and more intense, to which each of the 180 carbon majors (fossil fuel and cement producers) substantially contributed.

🚨 Important paper in Nature: "Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon majors".

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

The @ipcc.bsky.social has announced the authors for its Seventh Assessment Report (#AR7). With 3 Coordinating Lead Authors & 10 Lead Authors, IIASA will play a key part in delivering the best available knowledge to guide effective and equitable climate action.
🔗 iiasa.ac.at/news/aug-202...

So, feel free to connect/reach out with anything you feel may be helpful research and suggestions!

Attached a screenshot with the topics we will cover in our chapter.

All chapter outlines: www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/...

In light of the International Court of Justice’s reaffirmation of the importance of IPCC reports, I believe its very important to do our best to improve on past reports, as a scientific community, providing solid scientific evidence for what's very urgent: good, well-informed, climate action.

Honoured to serve as a Lead Author for the IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report!

Chapter 3, WG III. I expect to focus on global mitigation pathways, decent living standards for all, and post-growth approaches.

Team looks great! First big meeting in December.
All authors: apps.ipcc.ch/report/autho...

This is amongst the most impactful two minutes of broadcasting I’ve ever seen.

By Emma Murphy, International Editor, ITV News. #Gaza

- also here showing 'human-induced' forcing (only anthropogenic), whereas the paper generally presents data including also natural forcing (regular solar cycles). These solar cycle peaks can affect the total forcing or temp peaks a small bit too

A few subtle differences:
- Fig 3 is temperature, not Effective Radiative Forcing
- the plot Ken is showing picks a few 'illustrative pathways', to highlight higher (two left) and very low (two right) climate outcomes. The paper always looks at larger _groups_ of scenarios

Thanks Ken :).
I thought this was a time to keep the y-axis constant across panels to highlight exactly that and accept that half of the facets are just whitespace -- show those contributors to warming don't matter nearly as much as CO2.

Overshoot Conference from 30 September to 2 October 2025 As the world faces the growing risk of exceeding the 1.5°C warming threshold, understanding the risks and responses to climate overshoot across different disciplines has never been more urgent.

🚨Submission deadline ahead🚨

Join us for the world's first global conference at @iiasa.ac.at from Sep 30 to Oct 02.

(Extended) abstract deadline is around the corner (July 4). Don't miss it!

overshootconference.org/abstract-sub...

Causal pathway from AMOC to Southern Amazon rainforest indicates stabilising interaction between two climate tipping elements - IOPscience Causal pathway from AMOC to Southern Amazon rainforest indicates stabilising interaction between two climate tipping elements, Högner, Annika, Di Capua, Giorgia, Donges, Jonathan F, Donner, Reik V, Feulner, Georg, Wunderling, Nico

New study out, in which we detect a causal link in reanalysis+observational data from an AMOC SST index to the Southern Amazon rainforest: dry season precipitation increases when the AMOC weakens.

doi.org/10.1088/1748...

Yes, these scenarios also include (lots of) decarbonization

That's definitely crucial. The scenarios themselves (created with integrated assessment models) in this paper suggest start from the current infrastructures and project pathways of structural change away from that.

📰 Press release (IIASA): "Ending poverty without compromising climate goals": iiasa.ac.at/news/may-202...

☀️What's next? Use the DESIRE model, developed in this study, to create new scenarios. With that, we hope to more explicitly explore the effects of providing Decent Living Standards on climate mitigation scenarios, and emissions reduction targets across the world.

Last line of the abstract as a take-home message:

"This work illustrates the possibility of pathways that deliver DLS for all while meeting the Paris Agreement."

4️⃣ In these scenarios, more than half of the global population—including in low-income countries—achieve living standards more than twice as high as the DLS benchmark for the buildings sector.

3️⃣ In equitable scenarios, only about one-third of global energy use is needed to meet DLS, now, and in the future — the rest is used for services beyond basic human needs.

2️⃣ In scenarios with high equity and efficiency improvements, more than 90% of residential energy poverty is eliminated within two decades.

1️⃣ Providing decent living standards (clean cooking, cooling, transport, healthcare, education, etc.) for all requires a small share of global emissions.