Kateryna Stepanenko

Russia's new mobilization law yet another sign Kremlin is preparing for war with NATO, analysts say Increased spending on defense and a new Russian conscription law are signs of the Kremlin's increasingly aggressive posture and preparations for future conflict with Europe and NATO states, according ...

"All of these components — new military districts, changes in mobilization and defence spending — are suggesting that Russia is preparing for a protracted war, not just in Ukraine but also against NATO," ISW's @katstepanenko.bsky.social told @kyivindependent.com kyivindependent.com/russias-new-...

Russian and Ukrainian drones use cellphone internet networks to operate, so shutdowns are one way authorities try to counter the attacks, said @katstepanenko.bsky.social, a Russia analyst at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War.

NEW: Russia is a key player in the cognitive warfare space and a model for China, Iran, and North Korea. Understanding cognitive warfare is a national security requirement for the United States.

Read our primer by @nataliyabugayova.bsky.social & @katstepanenko.bsky.social: isw.pub/RUSCognitive...

Putin’s empowerment of Russian veterans runs the risk of following a similar path if the Kremlin does not control veterans’ expectations and demands early on.

Putin’s decision to empower Prigozhin & grant the Wagner special privileges created the conditions that enabled Prigozhin to weaponize and leverage the Kremlin's reliance on Wagner forces to Prigozhin’s selfish ends.

@thestudyofwar.bsky.social had already observed Russian reports of some veterans are already demanding promotions to high-ranking positions as regional governors or federal ministers. bsky.app/profile/kats...

Putin's continued rhetorical emphasis on veterans' authority in Russia may backfire, however, by enabling empowered Russian veterans to blackmail the Kremlin.

In practice, Putin is platforming veterans and transforming this demographic into one of the most influential groups in Russia in an effort to buttress credibility for Putin’s regime and its war efforts.

The "Time of Heroes" program - in principle - allows the Kremlin to satisfy veterans' demands for recognition and purge the elite class, while building out the Russian bureaucratic machine with veterans directly indebted to Putin for their appointments.

The Kremlin particularly focused on forming a new elite composed of a limited number of loyal and ultranationalist veterans as a way to safeguard his regime. The Kremlin is forming the new elite via the "Time of Heroes" program. bsky.app/profile/kats...

The Kremlin was likely aware of this threat & began planning how to address it as early as Fall 2022 by introducing numerous force centralization efforts, co-opting of Russian milbloggers & increasingly sidelining Prigozhin. www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder...

These instances demonstrate that veterans started to assemble into various groups by mid-2023, that these groups were bold enough to criticize the Russian MoD, & that social media platforms such as Telegram served as instrumental platforms for the emergence of these groups.

Russian commanders such as Airborne (VDV) Commander Teplinsky activated the VDV veterans communities in JAN-MAR 2023 to influence Putin into reappointing him after he was reportedly relieved of command. understandingwar.org/backgrounder...

Prigozhin launched a mutiny in June 2023, which ultimately failed to rally Russian servicemen. www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder...

Girkin, for example, formed the “Club of Angry Patriots” in Spring 2023 composed of anti-Putin veterans of the Russian invasion of Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014 — people whom the Kremlin was increasingly sidelining by early 2023.

Imprisoned former Russian officer Igor Girkin, Prigozhin, and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov began amplifying Russian servicemen's complaints about the Russian MoD to blackmail the Kremlin into making political concessions.

The Kremlin faced the threat of an emerging veteran opposition movement against the Putin regime between late 2022 and mid-2023 when patrons (like Prigozhin) tried to weaponize Russian servicemen and veterans to advance personal political objectives.

Putin launched an ongoing campaign in late 2022 & early 2023 to prevent the emergence of an independent veterans-based civil society in Russia -- likely fearing that veteran groups could threaten the stability of his regime. bsky.app/profile/kats...

It's the second anniversary of Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin's mutiny & the Kremlin is trying to prevent another mutiny by raising a veterans-based elite.

Putin, however, may once again inadvertently nurture a threat to his regime stability by emboldening veterans.🧵

Putin’s empowerment of Russian veterans runs the risk of following a similar path if the Kremlin does not control veterans’ expectations and demands early on.

Putin’s decision to empower Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin & grant the Wagner special privileges created the conditions that enabled Prigozhin to weaponize and leverage the Kremlin's reliance on Wagner forces to Prigozhin’s selfish ends. www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder...

Putin’s previous accommodation of niche organizations fostered threats to Putin’s power vertical.

Putin may be less likely to publicly punish or demote veterans in positions of power, as such a decision would undermine the Kremlin's effort to retain veterans’ loyalty to the regime and manufacture public support for the war.

Putin's continued rhetorical emphasis on veterans' authority in Russia may backfire, however, by enabling empowered Russian veterans to blackmail the Kremlin.

Putin is platforming veterans and transforming this demographic into one of the most influential groups in Russia in an effort to buttress credibility for Putin’s regime and its war efforts.

The milblogger claimed that some veterans are already demanding promotions to high-ranking positions as regional governors or federal ministers & that the Kremlin has to explain to veterans that their professional development as military personnel will differ from their government careers.

A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger stated on June 9 that organizers of the Time of Heroes program, such as Russian Presidential Administration Deputy Head Sergei Kiriyenko said that there are problems with the program.

Senior Kremlin officials reportedly stated that some Time of Heroes alumni and veterans are already making steep demands to be appointed to senior Kremlin positions.

Putin may be introducing some barriers to temper veterans’ expectations and prevent veterans from making lofty demands of positions in Putin's inner circle.

Putin implied that Russian veterans would need to acquire a significant amount of experience before the Kremlin could entrust them with federal-level appointments, likely setting informational conditions to deny immediate integration of Russian veterans into Putin's inner circle.