Kateryna Stepanenko

Russian Force Generation and Technological Adaptations Update, September 24, 2025 Russian Defense Minister Belousov outlined 10 priority objectives for the Russian MoD on August 29, per ISW.

NEW: Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov outlined 10 priority objectives for the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) during the Russian MoD Collegium on August 29. 🧵(1/5)

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@thestudyofwar.bsky.social also regularly covers Russia's efforts to condition Russian society and youth for military service and raise societal support for Russian war efforts in weekly Force Generation & Technological Adaptations reports. www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder...

Check out our recent primer on Russian cognitive warfare with @nataliyabugayova.bsky.social, in which we assess that cognitive warfare is Russia’s way of war, governance, and occupation. bsky.app/profile/thes...

Russian global and domestic cognitive warfare, therefore, are deeply connected and cannot be understood in isolation from one another -- as the Kremlin relies on domestic conditioning to continue its war efforts abroad.

The Kremlin is using military-patriotic propaganda and education to indoctrinate children into eventual military service; offering high financial rewards to attract Russian volunteers; & conditioning Russian society to accept greater sacrifices.

The Kremlin’s cognitive warfare inside Russia is not just about regime stability as the Kremlin uses cognitive warfare inside Russia to generate resources for its external military efforts.

Russia will reportedly conduct this neurological profile testing through August 2025 and then will hold the seminar in September 2025, during which the organizer will identify leaders and anti-leaders who are prone to destructive behavior.

Persona Head Vladimir Kozlov claimed that neurological profiling can help discover motivated Russian patriots.

Rospatriotstentr partnered with the private Russian company Persona that specializes in DeepTech and human potential management using neurological profiling and AI technologies & sells neurological tests that claim to increase team building via subconscious cognitive perceptions of visual symbols.

Russian government documents showed that Rospatriotstentr is attempting to create neurological profiles of 10,000 children and teenagers aged 12 to 18 from different regions in order to identify 50 with “pronounced positive profiles,” who will then attend a five-day seminar in occupied Sevastopol.

@rferl.org.web.brid.gy found that Rospatriotstentr of Russian Federal Youth Affairs Agency (Rosmolodezh) launched a neuro profiling project under the federal We Are Together program to advance "traditional, spiritual, and moral values" & to educate "a harmoniously developed personality" among youth.

The Kremlin launched an initiative to neurologically profile 10,000 Russian children to identify leaders and anti-leaders & improve patriotism among the Russian youth.

This initiative is likely part of the Kremlin's cognitive warfare effort aimed at garnering support for Russia's war efforts.🧵

NEW: Russian Drone Innovations are Likely Achieving Effects of Battlefield Air Interdiction in Ukraine

Read the Special Report by ISW Russia Analyst and Deputy Team Lead @katstepanenko.bsky.social: isw.pub/Russiandrone...

Key Takeaways ⬇🧵(1/6)

Russia's new mobilization law yet another sign Kremlin is preparing for war with NATO, analysts say Increased spending on defense and a new Russian conscription law are signs of the Kremlin's increasingly aggressive posture and preparations for future conflict with Europe and NATO states, according ...

"All of these components — new military districts, changes in mobilization and defence spending — are suggesting that Russia is preparing for a protracted war, not just in Ukraine but also against NATO," ISW's @katstepanenko.bsky.social told @kyivindependent.com kyivindependent.com/russias-new-...

Russian and Ukrainian drones use cellphone internet networks to operate, so shutdowns are one way authorities try to counter the attacks, said @katstepanenko.bsky.social, a Russia analyst at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War.

NEW: Russia is a key player in the cognitive warfare space and a model for China, Iran, and North Korea. Understanding cognitive warfare is a national security requirement for the United States.

Read our primer by @nataliyabugayova.bsky.social & @katstepanenko.bsky.social: isw.pub/RUSCognitive...

Putin’s empowerment of Russian veterans runs the risk of following a similar path if the Kremlin does not control veterans’ expectations and demands early on.

Putin’s decision to empower Prigozhin & grant the Wagner special privileges created the conditions that enabled Prigozhin to weaponize and leverage the Kremlin's reliance on Wagner forces to Prigozhin’s selfish ends.

@thestudyofwar.bsky.social had already observed Russian reports of some veterans are already demanding promotions to high-ranking positions as regional governors or federal ministers. bsky.app/profile/kats...

Putin's continued rhetorical emphasis on veterans' authority in Russia may backfire, however, by enabling empowered Russian veterans to blackmail the Kremlin.

In practice, Putin is platforming veterans and transforming this demographic into one of the most influential groups in Russia in an effort to buttress credibility for Putin’s regime and its war efforts.

The "Time of Heroes" program - in principle - allows the Kremlin to satisfy veterans' demands for recognition and purge the elite class, while building out the Russian bureaucratic machine with veterans directly indebted to Putin for their appointments.

The Kremlin particularly focused on forming a new elite composed of a limited number of loyal and ultranationalist veterans as a way to safeguard his regime. The Kremlin is forming the new elite via the "Time of Heroes" program. bsky.app/profile/kats...

The Kremlin was likely aware of this threat & began planning how to address it as early as Fall 2022 by introducing numerous force centralization efforts, co-opting of Russian milbloggers & increasingly sidelining Prigozhin. www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder...

These instances demonstrate that veterans started to assemble into various groups by mid-2023, that these groups were bold enough to criticize the Russian MoD, & that social media platforms such as Telegram served as instrumental platforms for the emergence of these groups.

Russian commanders such as Airborne (VDV) Commander Teplinsky activated the VDV veterans communities in JAN-MAR 2023 to influence Putin into reappointing him after he was reportedly relieved of command. understandingwar.org/backgrounder...

Prigozhin launched a mutiny in June 2023, which ultimately failed to rally Russian servicemen. www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder...

Girkin, for example, formed the “Club of Angry Patriots” in Spring 2023 composed of anti-Putin veterans of the Russian invasion of Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014 — people whom the Kremlin was increasingly sidelining by early 2023.

Imprisoned former Russian officer Igor Girkin, Prigozhin, and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov began amplifying Russian servicemen's complaints about the Russian MoD to blackmail the Kremlin into making political concessions.

The Kremlin faced the threat of an emerging veteran opposition movement against the Putin regime between late 2022 and mid-2023 when patrons (like Prigozhin) tried to weaponize Russian servicemen and veterans to advance personal political objectives.