UT-Austin Economics

📢 Kiel-@cepr.org-Research Seminar. Christoph Böhm @utaustinecon.bsky.social presents joint work w/ @nityanayar.bsky.social on dynamic gains from trade. Both are currently in Kiel teaching in the ASP program!
Don’t miss future talks - register here for the series 👉 www.ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev...

How News about the US Economy Drives Global Financial Conditions

New blog post by Chris Boehm and @kronerniklas.bsky.social (UT graduate @utaustinecon.bsky.social 🤟) based on paper recently published in @reveconstudies.bsky.social.

Short summary below ⬇️

The latest issue of the @qjeharvard.bsky.social features a paper by @ericchyn.bsky.social and his co-authors, "The Long-Run Effects of America’s Largest Residential Racial Desegregation Program: Gautreaux."

Congratulations to @mikegeruso.bsky.social and Dean Spears on the release of their new book, After the Spike: Population, Progress, and the Case for People.

Our work now published showing how better AI can improve both accuracy and diversity in hiring relative to supervised learning tools and status-quo human hiring.

What's happening with inflation expectations?

Two often used household surveys disagree:

- the Michigan MSC says inflation expectations are up
- the NY Fed SCE says they're not...

Which one is it?

New blog by Oli Coibion and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social says: MSC is right!

Find out why ⬇️

𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐁𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬: 𝐀𝐧 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐔𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐑 (MIT Press) has an official publication date of November 25, 2025! Instructors interested in using the book for free in the fall can comment or send me a message. Great resources available. #econsky

probstats4econ.com

UT Austin jumps to #21 in the latest US News rankings of Economics programs. 🤘
www.usnews.com/best-graduat...

The global landscape of academic guidelines for generative AI and LLMs - Nature Human Behaviour The integration of generative artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs) in academia brings benefits for access and collaboration as well as challenges that include misinformation a...

Congratulations to Economics major Kevin Chen, who is a co-author on the recently published Nature Human Behavior paper, "The global landscape of academic guidelines for generative AI and LLMs."

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

How quickly will workers adapt to AI-driven changes?

New blog post:

𝐒𝐤𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐒𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐚𝐜𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐓𝐞𝐜𝐡𝐧𝐨𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞: 𝐋𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐇𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲

by @nityanayar.bsky.social, Beraja & Adao

Link: sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/0...

Using HPC to Improve the Mortgage Industry - Access NSF ACCESS resources at the Texas Advanced Computing Center are central to a study into mortgage relief failures during the U.S. foreclosure crisis.

A write-up of how I have leveraged the National Science Foundation's Access program for academic computing resources! access-ci.org/using-hpc-to...

🔹 Keynotes: Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé @columbiauniversity.bsky.social & @cepr.org and Olivier Coibion @utaustinecon.bsky.social
🔹 Policy panel on monetary policy & geopolitics: Kristin Forbes @mitsloan.bsky.social, Fritzi Köhler-Geib @bundestag.de, & @ollirehn.suomenpankki.fi @suomenpankki.fi

Our Monetary Policy Conference is in full swing! Kicked off by an inspiring keynote from Olivier Coibion @utaustinecon.bsky.social, we're now in intense parallel sessions, diving deep into the data & discussions. We look forward to more debates today & tomorrow! @cepr.org @schularick.bsky.social

10 year ago, Oli Coibion ( @empctmacrotx.bsky.social ) and I had a paper in AEJ Macro about inflation expectations in the U.S. (www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...). We found that oil/gasoline prices strongly predict inflation expectations. This "iron law" continues to hold.

#inflation #EconSky

The 28th annual Texas Econometrics Camp was held this past weekend at the Canyon of the Eagles (Burnet, TX). Great talks by PhD students and faculty, and some s'mores too! @smueconomics.bsky.social @riceuniversity.bsky.social @uh.edu @tamu.bsky.social

We're excited that Rafael Veiel will be joining the department as an Assistant Professor in the fall! 🤘
@rveiel.bsky.social

Forthcoming QJE paper by @ericchyn.bsky.social on the effects of residential segregation. Important work!

How much would people pay to avoid business cycles? Professor Olivier Coibion and his collaborators answer this question in a new @nber.org working paper.

#EconSky

Examiner and Judge Designs in Economics: A Practitioner’s Guide (Forthcoming Article) - This article provides empirical researchers with an introduction and guide to research designs based on variation in judge and examiner tendencies to administer treatments or o...

"Examiner and Judge Designs in Economics: A Practitioner’s Guide" by @ericchyn.bsky.social and his co-authors is forthcoming in the Journal of Economic Literature. @aeajournals.bsky.social
www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Trumponomics: Expect Higher Inflation—with or Without Tariffs Chicago Booth’s Michael Weber explains how tariffs—or the anticipation of them—could affect prices.

Tariffs—or the anticipation of them—could affect prices, according to Booth's Michael Weber (paper with @utaustinecon.bsky.social’s Olivier Coibion, @ucberkeleyofficial.bsky.social’s @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social) www.chicagobooth.edu/review/podca... #econsky

The February 2025 issue of AEJ: Economic Policy features articles by both Marika Cabral and Jackson Dorsey. @aeajournals.bsky.social

Oli Cobion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber wrote a new blog post on what Americans expect from the Trump tariffs:

sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/0...

Key results: they expect to bear a share of tariffs, firm managers expect to raise prices. Disagreement b/n Dems & Reps, and many more in blog

Congratulations to Chris Boehm and former UT Austin grad @kronerniklas.bsky.social on getting their paper "The US, Economic News, and the Global Financial Cycle" accepted at Review of Economic Studies @reveconstudies.bsky.social !🥳 @utaustinecon.bsky.social

Link: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/wak4l...

New @nberpubs.bsky.social working paper on school desegregation by Cody Tuttle and his co-authors.

Meet @aeacswep.bsky.social new Board Member:
@caitlinmyers.bsky.social (CeMENT Co-Director) is Professor of Economics at Middlebury College and a research associate with the National Bureau of Economic Research. To read her full bio, visit our website: aeaweb.org/about-aea/co...

‪Meet @aeacswep.bsky.social new Board Member:
@nityanayar.bsky.social (At-Large Rep) is Associate Professor of Economics at University of Texas at Austin. To read her full bio, visit our website: aeaweb.org/about-aea/co...

Americans Are Stockpiling Ahead of Trump’s Tariffs Survey responses suggest a large share of consumers are preparing for higher prices.

Americans are stockpiling ahead of Trump’s tariffs, according to consumer data collected by @utaustinecon.bsky.social’s Olivier Coibion, @ucberkeleyofficial.bsky.social’s @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social, and Chicago Booth’s Michael Weber.

www.chicagobooth.edu/review/ameri... #tarrifs #econsky

New work by our co-director, Oli Coibion, together with @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social and Michael Weber on the upcoming Trump tariffs ⬇️