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Out of warranty? A new medical study (reported here and here) used MRI to look at the shoulders of a reasonable representative sample of 602 people over 40 in Finland. Rotator cuff abnormalities of varying apparent severity were seen in 595 of the people: that's 99% to two digits accuracy. Of the 602 people, 18% reported shoulder pain and the other 82% claimed their shoulders were ok (apart from being over 40).

Out of warranty?

A new medical study (reported here and here) used MRI to look at the shoulders of a reasonable representative sample of 602 people over 40 in Finland. Rotator cuff abnormalities of varying apparent severity were seen in 595 of the people: that's 99% to two digits accuracy. Of…

19.02.2026 22:40 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 2 Team Ratings for Week 2 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 2

Team Ratings for Week 2 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

17.02.2026 04:02 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Cancer hates mornings too? Via the pharmaceutical chemist Derek Lowe, and also various media outlets, there is a new cancer study that randomised patients with lung cancer to get their immunotherapy infusions in the morning or the afternoon/evening. The motivation will have been the various not-very-convincing correlational studies where patients getting morning treatment did better on average. In those studies the differences seen were large, but the studies were small enough that only large differences could have been seen.

Cancer hates mornings too?

Via the pharmaceutical chemist Derek Lowe, and also various media outlets, there is a new cancer study that randomised patients with lung cancer to get their immunotherapy infusions in the morning or the afternoon/evening. The motivation will have been the various…

14.02.2026 03:56 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Olympics condoms Every two years (since 1988) there is at least one round of stories about condoms at the Olympics (here's a couple of past StatsChat posts). Many athletes would have the funds and general executive function to be able to acquire condoms for themselves, and it's clear that a big part of the point is safe-sex advertising. It's relatively difficult to get a positive story about condom use into the world's prestige press, and the Olympics are an opportunity.

Olympics condoms

Every two years (since 1988) there is at least one round of stories about condoms at the Olympics (here's a couple of past StatsChat posts). Many athletes would have the funds and general executive function to be able to acquire condoms for themselves, and it's clear that a big…

13.02.2026 23:06 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Briefly The US FDA will not even review the application for Moderna's new flu vaccine. The FDA is very careful to give itself the flexibility to do this: if they say supportive things about your trial design today there is no legal guarantee that they can't change their minds six times before breakfast. However, they are usually reluctant to make radical changes in their advice and, for example, typically don't require placebo controls when an existing treatment works and is already widely recommended.

Briefly

The US FDA will not even review the application for Moderna's new flu vaccine. The FDA is very careful to give itself the flexibility to do this: if they say supportive things about your trial design today there is no legal guarantee that they can't change their minds six times before…

11.02.2026 20:59 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 1 Team Ratings for Week 1 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 1

Team Ratings for Week 1 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

11.02.2026 09:12 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Coffee brain? Various sources are telling us that coffee and tea consumption can lower the risk of dementia (the Independent is clickbaiting it to "the common drinks linked with reducing risk of dementia", and 9News in Australia is even more extreme with The everyday act that could reduce your risk of dementia, according to Harvard study). The subtext is definitely that caffeine is responsible for the decrease.

Coffee brain?

Various sources are telling us that coffee and tea consumption can lower the risk of dementia (the Independent is clickbaiting it to "the common drinks linked with reducing risk of dementia", and 9News in Australia is even more extreme with The everyday act that could reduce your…

10.02.2026 19:40 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Medical chatbots: the questions or the answers A story in the NYTimes and also an unpaywalled story at 404 Media report a study of chatbots for medical advice, saying they are Bad and Not Good. The research study is published in Nature Medicine. It's a randomised controlled experiment, where people pretending to be patients were given a set of symptoms and some background health and lifestyle information. These people were randomly assigned to talk to one of three large language models or just to use whatever information they would normally use at home for a health problem.

Medical chatbots: the questions or the answers

A story in the NYTimes and also an unpaywalled story at 404 Media report a study of chatbots for medical advice, saying they are Bad and Not Good. The research study is published in Nature Medicine. It's a randomised controlled experiment, where…

09.02.2026 22:58 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Who did the Superbowl half-time show? Unless you have been living in a cave* you will probably be aware that the lead performer was one Benito Antonio Martínez Ocasio, a Puerto Rican rapper who performs as "Bad Bunny". The story is complicated a bit because of prediction markets. The idea of prediction markets is that they can predict the future by letting experts get paid for integrating all the information about a question and betting correctly.

Who did the Superbowl half-time show?

Unless you have been living in a cave* you will probably be aware that the lead performer was one Benito Antonio Martínez Ocasio, a Puerto Rican rapper who performs as "Bad Bunny". The story is complicated a bit because of prediction markets. The idea of…

09.02.2026 20:58 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Delayed Games Team Ratings for Delayed Games The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Delayed Games

Team Ratings for Delayed Games The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

02.02.2026 23:24 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Top 14 Predictions for Round 17 Team Ratings for Round 17 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 17

Team Ratings for Round 17 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

02.02.2026 23:23 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

NFL Predictions for the Super Bowl Team Ratings for the Super Bowl The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

NFL Predictions for the Super Bowl

Team Ratings for the Super Bowl The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

29.01.2026 02:30 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 11 Team Ratings for Week 11 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 11

Team Ratings for Week 11 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

29.01.2026 02:28 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Top 14 Predictions for Round 16 Team Ratings for Round 16 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 16

Team Ratings for Round 16 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

29.01.2026 02:27 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 11 Team Ratings for Round 11 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 11

Team Ratings for Round 11 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

29.01.2026 02:26 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Briefly From the BBC "Vitamin D deficiency linked to hospital admissions". This is from a large British study correlating vitamin D levels in the blood with hospital admissions for respiratory infections. You might say "Someone ought to do a clinical trial to see if giving people vitamin D reduces infections or if it's just correlation". Someone has, here in NZ. Also, if you…

Briefly

From the BBC "Vitamin D deficiency linked to hospital admissions". This is from a large British study correlating vitamin D levels in the blood with hospital admissions for respiratory infections. You might say "Someone ought to do a clinical trial to see if giving people vitamin D reduces…

26.01.2026 05:14 — 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

It’s cold out there Right now, it is very cold in the central and eastern United States. Minneapolis has been in the news (for this as well as the bad sort of ice), but it's not just there. The Mayor of New York has warned locals about a major snowstorm (and suggested it would be a good time to stay home and borrow the e-book or audiobook of …

It’s cold out there

Right now, it is very cold in the central and eastern United States. Minneapolis has been in the news (for this as well as the bad sort of ice), but it's not just there. The Mayor of New York has warned locals about a major snowstorm (and suggested it would be a good time to…

25.01.2026 22:25 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

NFL Predictions for the Conference Final Team Ratings for the Conference Finals The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

NFL Predictions for the Conference Final

Team Ratings for the Conference Finals The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

20.01.2026 09:11 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

NFL Predictions for the Divisional Finals Team Ratings for the Divisional Finals The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

NFL Predictions for the Divisional Finals

Team Ratings for the Divisional Finals The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

13.01.2026 10:18 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Baby names The top baby names from 2025 are out, together with historic data to look at trends. Sadly, the historic data for boys' names and for girls' names come as three-page PDF tables with very small print, not as some conveniently computer-readable or human-readable format. We can still see some interesting trends The top names last year were Noah for boys (244 times) and Isla for girls (179 times).

Baby names

The top baby names from 2025 are out, together with historic data to look at trends. Sadly, the historic data for boys' names and for girls' names come as three-page PDF tables with very small print, not as some conveniently computer-readable or human-readable format. We can still see…

08.01.2026 22:43 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Pie chart issues This was on a real-estate agent's advertising leaflet at a local café If you aren't from around here, those are neighbourhoods in south central Auckland. Statisticians often complain about pie charts because it's hard to make numerical comparisons between the categories, especially compared to a bar chart The poor visual comparison might actually be a virtue in this case if the point is just that these neighbourhoods are similar.

Pie chart issues

This was on a real-estate agent's advertising leaflet at a local café If you aren't from around here, those are neighbourhoods in south central Auckland. Statisticians often complain about pie charts because it's hard to make numerical comparisons between the categories,…

08.01.2026 04:09 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Vibe graphs From Nicola Rennie on Bluesky, a bad graph found on LinkedIn: and a correct version of the same graph The bad version is probably from generative AI -- as Nicola says, it is bad in ways that would take substantial effort to achieve in commonly-used software, ranging from the weird bar alignment to the incorrect lengths to the incoherent choice of colours to the Slovenioid flag to the spelling of Belgıun.

Vibe graphs

From Nicola Rennie on Bluesky, a bad graph found on LinkedIn: and a correct version of the same graph The bad version is probably from generative AI -- as Nicola says, it is bad in ways that would take substantial effort to achieve in commonly-used software, ranging from the weird bar…

06.01.2026 01:10 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

NFL Predictions for the Wild Card Games Team Ratings for the Wild Card Games The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

NFL Predictions for the Wild Card Games

Team Ratings for the Wild Card Games The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

06.01.2026 00:39 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 10 Team Ratings for Week 10 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 10

Team Ratings for Week 10 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

06.01.2026 00:24 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Top 14 Predictions for Round 15 Team Ratings for Round 15 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 15

Team Ratings for Round 15 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

06.01.2026 00:23 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 10 Team Ratings for Round 10 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 10

Team Ratings for Round 10 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

06.01.2026 00:22 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

NFL Predictions for Week 18 Team Ratings for Week 18 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

NFL Predictions for Week 18

Team Ratings for Week 18 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

30.12.2025 04:34 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 9 Team Ratings for Week 9 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 9

Team Ratings for Week 9 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

29.12.2025 22:15 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Top 14 Predictions for Round 14 Team Ratings for Round 14 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 14

Team Ratings for Round 14 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

29.12.2025 22:14 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 9 Team Ratings for Round 9 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 9

Team Ratings for Round 9 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

29.12.2025 22:14 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

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