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@statschat.bsky.social

A blog (statschat.org.nz) on statistics in the media. Also does predictions for various types of football. @tslumley.bsky.social is the human in the room

39 Followers  |  11 Following  |  166 Posts  |  Joined: 26.03.2025  |  1.7086

Latest posts by statschat.bsky.social on Bluesky

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 3 Team Ratings for Week 3 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 3

Team Ratings for Week 3 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

07.10.2025 03:00 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Top 14 Predictions for Round 6 <h2>Team Ratings for Round 6</h2> The basic method is described on my Department <a href=' page</a>. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.<br/> <br/> <center><table border = '1' rules = 'all'> <tr> <th> </th> <th> Current Rating </th> <th> Rating at Season Start </th> <th> Difference </th> </tr>

Top 14 Predictions for Round 6

Team Ratings for Round 6 The basic method is described on my Department

07.10.2025 02:59 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 3 Team Ratings for Round 3 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 3

Team Ratings for Round 3 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

07.10.2025 02:58 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Quarter-Finals Team Ratings for the Quarter-Finals The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Quarter-Finals

Team Ratings for the Quarter-Finals The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

07.10.2025 02:57 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 2 Team Ratings for Week 2 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 2

Team Ratings for Week 2 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

30.09.2025 07:10 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Top 14 Predictions for Round 5 Team Ratings for Round 5 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 5

Team Ratings for Round 5 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

30.09.2025 07:09 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 2 Team Ratings for Round 2 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 2

Team Ratings for Round 2 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

30.09.2025 07:08 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Quarter-Finals Team Ratings for the Quarter-Finals The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Quarter-Finals

Team Ratings for the Quarter-Finals The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

30.09.2025 07:06 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
NRL Predictions for the Grand Final Team Ratings for the Grand Final The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

NRL Predictions for the Grand Final

Team Ratings for the Grand Final The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

30.09.2025 07:05 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Briefly From the Guardian: Exclusive: Study gives 85.7% probability Badminton House version of The Lute Player is by 17th-century master. As I said about a previous rating from the same company, there's no way this probability is meaningful to three significant digits (except potentially to the computer). The company's head, Dr Carina Popovici, told the Guardian: “Everything over 80% is very high.” 

Briefly

From the Guardian: Exclusive: Study gives 85.7% probability Badminton House version of The Lute Player is by 17th-century master. As I said about a previous rating from the same company, there's no way this probability is meaningful to three significant digits (except potentially to the…

28.09.2025 05:34 — 👍 1    🔁 1    💬 0    📌 0
Panadol scare R.F. Kennedy Jr managed to predict almost perfectly the day on which his research initiative would "find"  "the" "cause" of autism.  Of course, it's easier when you don't have to actually do any new research. What do we actually know about paracetamol and autism or ADHD? About a decade ago, there was a surprise finding of a fairly weak but not negligible correlation between paracetamol use during pregnancy and ADHD symptoms in the infant. 

Panadol scare

R.F. Kennedy Jr managed to predict almost perfectly the day on which his research initiative would "find"  "the" "cause" of autism.  Of course, it's easier when you don't have to actually do any new research. What do we actually know about paracetamol and autism or ADHD? About a…

22.09.2025 23:54 — 👍 4    🔁 1    💬 0    📌 0
Estimating rare proportions There is a statistic circulating on social media claiming that the average person in the USA thinks 21% of the population is transgender.  Obviously this isn't true (both obviously it isn't 21% and obviously that isn't what the average person believes). It's similar in some ways to the claim that some Americans think Iran is in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, which I've…

Estimating rare proportions

There is a statistic circulating on social media claiming that the average person in the USA thinks 21% of the population is transgender.  Obviously this isn't true (both obviously it isn't 21% and obviously that isn't what the average person believes). It's similar in…

22.09.2025 21:47 — 👍 4    🔁 2    💬 0    📌 0
United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 1 Team Ratings for Week 1 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 1

Team Ratings for Week 1 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

22.09.2025 19:25 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Top 14 Predictions for Round 4 Team Ratings for Round 4 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 4

Team Ratings for Round 4 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

22.09.2025 19:24 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 1 Team Ratings for Round 1 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 1

Team Ratings for Round 1 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

22.09.2025 19:22 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
NRL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

NRL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

22.09.2025 19:21 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 9 Team Ratings for Week 9 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 9

Team Ratings for Week 9 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

22.09.2025 19:20 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
AFL Predictions for the Grand Final Team Ratings for the Grand Final The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

AFL Predictions for the Grand Final

Team Ratings for the Grand Final The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

22.09.2025 19:18 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Top 14 Predictions for Round 3 Team Ratings for Round 3 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 3

Team Ratings for Round 3 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

15.09.2025 18:54 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
NRL Predictions for Finals Week 2 Team Ratings for Finals Week 2 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 2

Team Ratings for Finals Week 2 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

15.09.2025 18:53 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 8 Team Ratings for Week 8 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 8

Team Ratings for Week 8 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

15.09.2025 18:52 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Currie Cup Predictions for Round 9 Team Ratings for Round 9 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 9

Team Ratings for Round 9 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

15.09.2025 18:51 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
AFL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

AFL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

15.09.2025 18:50 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Top 14 Predictions for Round 2 Team Ratings for Round 2 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 2

Team Ratings for Round 2 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

08.09.2025 20:47 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1 Team Ratings for Finals Week 1 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1

Team Ratings for Finals Week 1 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

08.09.2025 20:46 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 7 Team Ratings for Week 7 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 7

Team Ratings for Week 7 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

08.09.2025 20:45 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Currie Cup Predictions for Round 8 Team Ratings for Round 8 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 8

Team Ratings for Round 8 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

08.09.2025 20:44 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
AFL Predictions for Finals Week 2 Team Ratings for Finals Week 2 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

AFL Predictions for Finals Week 2

Team Ratings for Finals Week 2 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

08.09.2025 20:43 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Top 14 Predictions for Round 1 Team Ratings for Round 1 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Top 14 Predictions for Round 1

Team Ratings for Round 1 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

01.09.2025 22:53 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
NRL Predictions for Round 27 Team Ratings for Round 27 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

NRL Predictions for Round 27

Team Ratings for Round 27 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week's games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

01.09.2025 22:53 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

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