Spyros Andreopoulos

Will Stablecoins Turbocharge the Exorbitant Privilege? Back to the basics

Will Stablecoins Turbocharge the Exorbitant Privilege? open.substack.com/pub/thinicem... In the long term, it’s still the US’ #fiscal probity and the ability of the #Fed to deliver low and stable #inflation that will determine whether the #dollar maintains its position. #institutions #stablecoins

Dispatch€s from Frankfurt - ECB Preview: Wait-and-Watch Continues ... but more nuance on inflation

The #ECB #governingcouncil will keep rates unch in September. I exp staff #inflation #projections to be lowered slightly. That should make for more nuanced #communication than in July.
#eurozone #euro #centralbankmeetings #Lagarde #Fed #globalmacro #thinicemacro
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...

Frankfurt, We Have a (China) Problem
#Decoupling between import #volumes – soaring – and values in #EUR – moving sideways: increased #China #price #competitiveness, no doubt helped by the #depreciation of the #yuan against the EUR. This is not lost on the #ECB. Expect lower rates in Q4.

Fed Independence: Pressure Cooking People make institutions

Fed Independence: Pressure Cooking
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Institutional structure by itself will not be sufficient to maintain Fed #independence.
#markets #fiscaldominance #Powell #Bessent #Trump #USdollar #inflation #interestrates #governmentdebt #globalmacro #thinicemacro

Spyros Andreopoulos (@spyrosandreopoulos) I was featured on Politico Europe’s Central Banker newsletter today. With the noose tightening for the Fed, it’s interesting times for central banks everywhere.

substack.com/@spyrosandre...

Trump's Tariff Win: Lower Inflation Outside the US Case for disinflation everywhere else now stronger

Trump's Tariff Win: Lower Inflation Outside the US
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Recent developments strengthen the case that #UStariffs will lower #inflation in affected economies.
#Trump #Eurozone #ECB #Japan #BoJ #euro #yen #China #exports #tradewar #centralbanks #globalmacro #thinicemacro

FX and Stock Prices: Look Under the Hood Is a strong currency good or bad for stocks?

FX and Stock Prices: Look Under the Hood
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#Equity #investors should look under the hood for the drivers of exchange rate moves to appreciate the read across for #stocks.
#thinicemacro #globalmacro #USeconomy #stockmarket #Europe #EU

Dispatch€s from Frankfurt: ECB: July Pause, Tariffs Are Close The elephant in the room

Dispatch€s from Frankfurt: ECB: July Pause, Tariffs Are Close open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#ECB look to leave rates unch July 24. My central case remains for one more cut. A further increase in effective #tariff rate would tilt risks to 1.50%. #euroarea #US #Trump #euro #Lagarde #thinicemacro

Bank of Japan: Whack-a-Mole The trilemma strikes back

Bank of Japan: Whack-a-Mole open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Why the #BankofJapan just can't normalize policy.
#yen #JPY #Ueda #Japan #trilemma #volatility #Trump #tariffs #normalization #interestrates #yieldcurvecontrol #financialstability #fiscalsustainability

My Thin Ice Macroeconomics #blog on #Substack has been growing nicely.
But having a #Nobel #economist subscribe feels like a special recognition 😊 (🙏 @pkrugman.bsky.social)
If you haven’t yet, make sure you subscribe, it’s free: open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#thinicemacro #thinicemacroeconomics

ECB Strategy: Back to the Future Four critiques and a question

ECB Strategy: Back to the Future open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
A close, critical look at the #ecb's updated #strategy. #Lagarde #thinicemacro #globalmacro #centralbanks #eurozone #europe #europeaneconomy #markets #euro

Inching Towards Fiscal Dominance One decision at a time

Inching Towards Fiscal Dominance open.substack.com/pub/thinicem... Check out my latest #Substack, subscription is free!

#FederalReserve #Trump #fiscaldominance #Fedindependence #inflation #governmentdebt #debt #USTreasury #fiscalpolicy #QE #Powell #globalmacro #thinicemacro

A masterpiece.

The #oilprice is up 15%+ past days. That’s not moving the needle for #USconsumers - the share of #gasoline and other #energy products in total #consumption spending (#PCE) is a v low 2%. The divergence has increased since the #pandemic due to strong income growth. #Fed #thinicemacro #globalmacro

The Geopolitical Euro Bulgaria accession edition

The Geopolitical Euro open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...

Dispatch€s from Frankfurt: ECB: Mission Accomplished Keeping inflation on target will likely require one more cut

Dispatch€s from Frankfurt: ECB: Mission Accomplished open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
I maintain my baseline for a 1.75% terminus in September.

#ecb #ecbmeeting #governingcouncil #lagarde #eurozone #euro #inflation #tariffs #globalmacro #thinicemacro

Dispatch€s from Frankfurt: ECB: Rates Cut While U Wait ... for the trade negotiations

Dispatch€s from Frankfurt: ECB: Rates Cut While U Wait open.substack.com/pub/thinicem... My preview of next week's #ECB meeting!
#Lagarde #tariffs #inflation #euro #Trump #centralbankmeetings #globalmacro #thinicemacro

Germany's Investment Blockage ... may be worse than you think

Germany's Investment Blockage open.substack.com/pub/thinicem... Temper your #euro bullishness!

We the People vs Capitalism Trump, investors, the Fed, and the dollar

We the People vs Capitalism open.substack.com/pub/thinicem... There is a tension between #MAGA and investors: the latter want constraints on the executive. #Trump #dollar #USTreasuries #debt #Fed #globalmacro #thinicemacro

Do Sell in May The current sweet spot for stocks won't last

Do Sell in May open.substack.com/pub/thinicem... Why the current #sweetspot for #USequities can't last. #tariffs #stocks #fed #Trump #taxcuts #USTreasury #profits #margins #globalmacro #thinicemacro

‘Numerous signs of torture’: a Ukrainian journalist’s detention and death in Russian prison The Guardian, working with media partners, has tracked down first-hand accounts to reconstruct Viktoriia Roshchyna’s final months

www.theguardian.com/world/2025/a...

Bond Vigilantes May Deny Trump a Big Fiscal Win Treasury market volatility here to stay

Bond Vigilantes May Deny Trump a Big Fiscal Win open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
To prevent #recession, the #Trump administration needs big #taxcuts, soon. Recent signs of an #investor #exodus from #USassets suggest the price may be high. #Volatility in the #USTreasury #market looks here to stay.

Tariffs, Taxes, Trump and Trouble ... for the Fed and the dollar

#Trumptariffs spell trouble for the #Fed and the #dollar.
My latest #substack, subscription is free.

open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...

Mar-a-Lago vs. the Fed Grand Dollar Overdraft The next fight?

open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...

The #risks of the #Mar_a_Lago approach to the #USdollar and the next potential battleground between the #Fed and #MAGA: the Fed’s network of #swaplines with other #centralbanks. #globalmacro #thinicemacro

Mar-a-Lago and the Euro Euro to benefit by default, not by merit

open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...

The NY Fed median point estimate for inflation expectation--conceptually closer to the Michigan Survey--has moved considerably at the one-year horizon.

Tariffs will cause “a little disturbance”. Does this sound like we’re near the strike price of the Trump put?

Dispatch€s from Frankfurt: ECB Preview: Restrictive No More? Not the end of cuts

Another 25bp ✂️ Thursday seems a done deal, moving market focus to #communication. While the #ECB may no longer see interest rates as “restrictive” it would make sense to move to a non-binary assessment of the policy stance.
Dispatch€s from Frankfurt: ECB Preview: open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...