@thinicemacro.bsky.social
Macroeconomist and consultant, politics junkie, wine lover. Ex ECB economist. Blogs on global macro, central banks, Europe, on thinicemacroeconomics.substack.com. Company website: https://thinicemacro.com
IMO, it’s important to be precise about what shocks world is undergoing rather than just $ smile safe-haven bla-bla.
1. Febs 2022 & 2026 were negative global energy supply shocks —> positive US ToT shocks.
2. Feb & April 2025 were US global public goods withdrawal —> RoW fiscal expansion shocks.
The #ECB’s liquidity lines could become Europe’s equivalent of the Fed’s global dollar backstop — if policy-makers dare to scale them up.
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @thinicemacro.bsky.social
& @sandertordoir.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/Cr4aLFO
🛢️Fun fact on #US #economy and #oilprice spike👇
share of #gasoline and #energy in #US #consumer #spending at all-time low of 2% in Dec 2025 (latest PCE), equal to Jan 2002 and lower only during Covid (WTI 19$).
#FOMC
#Iran #war #oil #oilprice
#ThinIceMacro
#globalmacro
Higher European defence spending and the EU’s reputation for institutional stability could strengthen global demand for euro-denominated assets.
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @thinicemacro.bsky.social
& @sandertordoir.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/Cr4aLFO
former @ecb.europa.eu economists argue for strengthening the international role of the euro: The ECB’s bid to strengthen the euro’s global role by @thinicemacro.bsky.social and @sandertordoir.bsky.social 20 February 2026
www.cer.eu/insights/ecb...
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @thinicemacro.bsky.social & @sandertordoir.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/Cr4aLFO
important piece by my colleague @sandertordoir.bsky.social & @thinicemacro.bsky.social - geopolitical power and the currency go together, and as the dollar's domination is shaken, there is an opportunity for the euro, and Europe, to play a bigger role.
New piece with former fellow ECB hand @thinicemacro.bsky.social.
At the Munich Security Conference, the ECB made its geopolitical move, opening repo lines to central banks globally.
It was probably the most consequential policy announcement at the conference.
1/
www.cer.eu/insights/ecb...
‼️ Joint piece with @sandertordoir.bsky.social on the #ECB #geopolitical tools and how it advances the role of the #euro 👇
#CER
#ThinIceMacro
🇯🇵 #Takaichi landslide #election victory is an opportunity for a policy reset in #Japan: she needs to restore the credibility of the policy #framework- #BoJ and #fiscal 👇
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#ECB will be on hold in next week’s meeting, so market focus will be on the #euro.
👉 Language on #fx next week shouldn’t be much more than the usual
❗️Another leg down in #USD could elicit stronger language
My meeting preview: 👇
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#ECB verbal intervention on #USD weakness has started, and it’s bipartisan:
Kocher (Austria) - hawk: “ECB would need to act if euro keeps gaining”
Villeroy (France) - dove: “Strong euro is element that will guide ECB policy.”
Still, a long way away from action. #EUR #euro
Small example of how far-right populists in Europe will ... how can I put this?, struggle to co-operate.
cf also AfD views on France asking the #ECB to help with French debt costs.
www.linkedin.com/posts/spyros...
In 🇩🇪, a few thoughts on the situation in #Japan 🇯🇵 #JPY #JGB #BoJ #ThinIceMacro #globalmacro #econtwitter
Is it just me or was Carney’s speech mainly addressed at Europe? Digested read: “wake up, stop whining, get your act together.”
The next #ECB Pres should be German 🇩🇪, I argued - reprinted by the @financialtimes.com (thank you @olafstorbeck.ft.com).
With plenty of qualified people around for the position, 🇪🇺 can afford to make a choice for the right #political, even #geopolitical, reasons.
Link to the full piece 👇
“Just don’t mention the #hike.” My #comms guide for the #ECB meeting - see my latest #substack newsletter, sub is free 👇
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#ECBmeeting #euro #EURUSD #ThinIceMacro #globalmacro
Exploring #Hassett at the #Fed 🪑
US #monetarypolicy will be #procyclical next year, but the #economy will limit the scope for #rate ✂️ even for a Hassett Fed. #Boom in ’26 could transition to #bust in ’27.
My latest #Substack 👇
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#ThinIceMacro
Digested read on #secondChinashock in #Europe.
#ECB #geopolitics #globalimbalances
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#Fed #rstar #centralbanks #bonds #ECB #monetarypolicy
#globalmacro #thinicemacro
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem... My #ECB review. Two interesting morsels out of an otherwise boring meeting. #eurozone #euro #thinicemacro
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#ECB #meeting preview. The #eurozone low excitement #economy means there will be few surprises next week out of Frankfurt. #Lagarde #euro #Fed
Why #Germany’s #industry continues to struggle: open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#eurozone #economy #euro #ECB #globalmacro #thinicemacro
#ECB Sep meeting minutes: easing bias under the hood
👉 substack.com/@spyrosandre...
#accounts #euro #Lagarde #thinicemacro
Will Stablecoins Turbocharge the Exorbitant Privilege? open.substack.com/pub/thinicem... In the long term, it’s still the US’ #fiscal probity and the ability of the #Fed to deliver low and stable #inflation that will determine whether the #dollar maintains its position. #institutions #stablecoins
The #ECB #governingcouncil will keep rates unch in September. I exp staff #inflation #projections to be lowered slightly. That should make for more nuanced #communication than in July.
#eurozone #euro #centralbankmeetings #Lagarde #Fed #globalmacro #thinicemacro
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Frankfurt, We Have a (China) Problem
#Decoupling between import #volumes – soaring – and values in #EUR – moving sideways: increased #China #price #competitiveness, no doubt helped by the #depreciation of the #yuan against the EUR. This is not lost on the #ECB. Expect lower rates in Q4.
Fed Independence: Pressure Cooking
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Institutional structure by itself will not be sufficient to maintain Fed #independence.
#markets #fiscaldominance #Powell #Bessent #Trump #USdollar #inflation #interestrates #governmentdebt #globalmacro #thinicemacro
