FPL_PB

You guys are doing a great job. Love the content!

Any chance you will be uploading these to Apple Podcasts?

I went back and calculated #FPL Assistant Manager points for every PL game over the last 8 seasons (and combined with pre-game market WDL odds)

These are the top 100 AM scores for games played in GW24-38 between 2016-7 and 2023-24 👇

And a few quick observations below 🧵

Each Premier League team's projected goals per game for the rest of the season, via outright spread betting markets 👇

Quite a lot of movement in TOT-NEW odds this evening

Newcastle now 54% win odds (from 43% midweek), latest implied goals of Tottenham 1.60-2.35 Newcastle

Final updates tomorrow as usual - interesting to see how this one develops

GW19 Simulated Goals and Assists 📊⚽↪️

Simulated GW19 thousands of times and here is where player production came from.

Note: this was not done today so not factoring in suspensions, post-GW18 team strengths, etc. #FPL

💹 PL GW19 matchups

First look at projected goals and clean sheet odds for the next round of Premier League games, via spread betting markets

PL GW18: top scorer long-list and equivalent #FPL goal points

F I X T U R E S 🗓️

#GW17 - to - GW25

🇪🇺 Euro Group matches
🧃 Carabao Cup SF1 & SF3
🏆 FA Cup R3 & R4

#theFPLmatrix

💚💛❤️

F I X T U R E S 🗓️

#GW17 - to - GW25

#theFPLmatrix

💚💛❤️

🐇HopON🐇HopOFF🐇matrix🐇

🗓️ #GW17 - to - GW25

🟩 highlighting HOME and AWAY
matches versus last seasons
bottom 12/promoted sides

#hopONhopOFFmatrix #FPL

The ©️A P T A I N and
P R E M I U M matrix 🖊️

🗓️ #GW17 - to - GW25

🟪 highlighting key CAPTAIN and PREMIUM player options HOME and AWAY matches versus last seasons bottom 12/promoted sides 👀

#CaptaincyMatrix #FPL

💚💛❤️

💹 #FPL GW17 matchups

First look at projected goals and clean sheet odds for this weekend's round of Premier League games, via spread betting markets

💹 PL: GW16 player goal projections

Top projected scorers for the weekend's round of PL games, via spread betting markets (all markets assume a start)

🚨 Start planning your Assistant Manager chip 🚨

The Assistant Manager chip is now live on the FPL Team website ready for you to play around with!

Includes full functionality as revealed by FPL themselves.

Get planning now at fpl.team/plan

#FPL | #FPLCommunity

Potential for a double Gameweek 24…

I did some elaborations on the Assistant Manager EVs posted by @analyticf.pl below. Taking the current difference in league places, I have calculated the effective EV for each fixture for the home and away team (1/.

Working non-stop since the announcement and have created predicted points live tables for the #FPL Assistant Manager chip.

- GW24 - 38 Points (no bonus)
- GW24 - 38 Points (with bonus)
- Rolling 3GW totals

Currently in beta for Members testing/feedback (www.elevenify.com/p/members).

Time to rest!

Assistant Manager EV

I calculated the EVs for the Assistant Manager in each fixture.

For now, not factored in probability of being 5 places below so:

Pts = EV if they not 5+ places below
Pts++ = EV if they are 5+ places below

From my team strength model

💹 #FPL GW16 matchups

First look at projected goals and clean sheet odds for this weekend's round of Premier League games, via spread betting markets

FPL Towers this season:
- Started with the most enjoyable asset pricing in recent years by far
- Made changes to FT & chip rules which have made FPL planning much more enjoyable and interesting
- Introduced a new chip which is more ambitious & strategically fun than any suggestions I've seen

Will get the new chip added in stages over the next weeks, expect it will look something like this:

1- Projections for managers added to site (by start of next week)
2- Enable using chip & picking manager (by end the of next week)
3- Link into Linear Optimiser (over Christmas)

#FPL My thoughts and feelings on the new shiny Assistant Manager chip. It's intriguing to have a new challenge, but I find it annoying.

1️⃣ It requires a new slot in our "Knapsack problem" of 15 players, taking ITB and 3-player limits into account. Decision-making just got unnecessarily harder.

Mystery Chip = Assistant Manager chip!

Here's the calendar up to GW38.

If EVE vs LIV is rescheduled before GW30 then my chip strategy will probably be:

Wildcard in GW30
Assistant Manager in GWs 31-33 (inc. DGW33)
Free Hit in BGW34
Bench Boost in DGW36
Triple Captain Salah in the EVE vs LIV DGW

In short:

Target vs promoted teams.
Plus Everton & Wolves for your defenders
Plus West Ham & Brentford for your attackers

Avoid vs Arsenal Liverpool.
Plus Chelsea City Spurs for your defenders

Palmer has 38 PL goals and assists in 2024 - that's more than any other player. Eight ahead of Salah and 10 ahead of Saka and Haaland. Harry Kane holds the record for most goals and assists in a calendar year with 46. Chelsea have four PL games to go in 2024...#cfc

Final update on these 👇

Markets starting to cool on Man City with a drop in projections from Sunday morning. Chelsea's projections have risen with Saints likely to be missing a number of first-teamers - a chance that comes back in a bit tomorrow if Chelsea rotate their own XI

Went back a bit further

The last PL game that City weren't favoured by the bookies was April 2017, away at Chelsea

They've been favourites for 313 of 316 league games in the Pep era -- including seven consecutive seasons (2017-2024) where they were never pre-match underdogs 😅

GW13 Match Predictions 📆

Defensive Triple Up Is it riskier to triple up on one team's defense?

A quick read while waiting for the Champions League to kick off

Is it riskier in FPL to triple up on one team's defense?
In reference to some of the responses to Andy's (@lets-talkfpl.bsky.social)'s decision to triple up on Arsenal defenders.

plfantasy.substack.com/p/defensive-...