Chinese EV makers are now bringing their low-cost advantage to the heavy-duty truck market.
The 15th Five-Year Plan commits to increasing the proportion of electrified transport overall, and especially in the truck sector. Not a lot of other policy details right now to guide the market. So, it's wait-and-see mode right now!
Could Iran helps? Gasoline pump prices are up and there are reports of gas lines. EV makers plan lots of new vehicles, including ones with sodium-ion batteries for cold markets. But input prices are up too.
The first months of the year are often the worst for NEVs, as buyers usually rush purchases at the end of the year to take advantage of subsidies.
NEVs had a rough start to 2026: The overall domestic car market started the year with a decline of 19.1% (according to CPCA) data, but NEV domestic sales declined 25.7%. Exports were the main factor holding up the NEV industry.
NEVs continued to slowly rise as a share of total vehicle stock, reaching 12% at the end of the year. In 2025, ICE vehicle stock grew at a far slower rate than in recent years, and plateaued in the 2H. This suggests retirements are picking up as China’s vehicle stock ages.
That trend may well continue, given that subsidies are refocusing on longer-range vehicles and BEVs.
In the passenger car segment, a shift away from PHEVs was notable. Starting in September, passenger PHEV sales began to show monthly sales declines. Falling battery prices and new BEV models have made such vehicles more attractive in larger vehicle segments.
China’s domestic NEV sales have risen by at least 1.5 million per year since 2020, reaching a 51 per cent market share in new vehicles in 2025 (53 per cent for passenger cars). For 2026, domestic NEV sales growth is expected to slow, with sales penetration reaching between 55 and 60 per cent.
I have a new paper out today on the latest developments in China's NEV space. Although the NEV sales rose again and crossed the important threshold of 50% market share, there was a notable fall-off in growth towards the end of the year. And so far, 2026 has not been kind. #nev #china #evs
Indeed. Jan data will be interesting!
My big things to watch for '26 in NEVs:
👉Will the heavy truck trend continue, and will NEV trucks go head-to-head against LNG?
👉Will the passenger NEV slowdown continue, giving gasoline a lifeline?
👉Will the falling PHEV trend gather steam?
👉Will Na-ion enter in a big way?
One thing that makes the NEV heavy truck trend especially important for oil demand is the short lifetime of heavy trucks. Most estimates are around 7-8 years. Since there was a wave of replacements in 2019-21, another wave could be arriving soon.
LNG heavy trucks and NEV trucks are strong in different regions. NEV truck ranges are rising but likely still not the best choice for the longest routes. LNG works best in areas with stranded LNG capacity and fuel infr. Some provinces are actually closing down LNG fueling stations!
The big surprise was NEV heavy trucks. The annual graph doesn't capture the huge surge at the end of the year. LNG trucks stayed strong even though share fell. Diesel truck sales are collapsing.
NEV sales are translating directly into rising share of the vehicle stock, albeit slowly. ICE vehicle stock is still rising despite the bottom falling out of new sales. Yet this year showed a clear trend change, with ICE vehicle stock no longer rising. '26 the first decline?
Charging numbers are actually growing faster than the stock of NEVs, suggesting the role of NEV commercial vehicles is starting to affect charging numbers.
There is some concern anti-involution and battery materials might constrain the NEV market, but battery prices in 2025 fell by over 10% despite material costs rising. Capacity is rising quickly too. Can exports absorb all that? Don't think so.
The monthly NEV numbers showed a clear slowdown. Usually Dec is the sales peak for the year.
BEV sales grew more strongly than in past 3 years, and PHEV share slipped. PHEV monthly sales actually declined several times. Policies are shifting away from PHEVs too.
As you likely know by now, China's New Energy Vehicle (NEV) surge continues. Market penetration rose from around 45% to 53%, lower than the increase in 2024 but comparable to 2023
The monthly NEV numbers showed a clear slowdown. Usually Dec is the sales peak for the year.
BEV sales grew more strongly than in past 3 years, and PHEV share slipped. PHEV monthly sales actually declined several times. Policies are shifting away from PHEVs too.
In 2025, the Trump Administration and a Republican Congress rolled back much of America’s progress on clean energy, pushing greenhouse gas emissions projections by 24%.
No surprise: new analysis shows that heat pumps can deliver excellent performance even in older buildings with no meaningful correlation between building age & heat pump efficiency.
This is in line with my own experience of having a heat pump in a 1880 Victorian home with only modest insulation.
Imagine, if you will, a kind of “stretch robotaxi”
Panasonic says the U.S. has a chance to become the “front-runner” in locally produced electric vehicle batteries.
“It’s going to be 10 years of working hard on the supply chain. But can the Americans do that? Absolutely. I’m very convinced we can.”
insideevs.com/news/767364/...
Clean energy standards have boosted renewables and EVs—can they do the same for heating?
We think so. Our new paper shows how Clean Heat Standards can drive more clean heat across Europe & explains how to make them work.
www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18...
China's EV sector is way ahead of the rest of the world. That's no secret.
So where does it go next? @gaytonausa.bsky.social writes that the game is evolution, not revolution—mostly. Here's what to expect:
insideevs.com/features/759...
