John Pfaff

I'm not making a "can't shoot the gun you don't have" trivial point.

I'm arguing that the regular possession of a gun may causally instill greater fear.

Obv the opposite causal effect is likely true as well: people more afraid of life are more likely to arm themselves. But wonder abt gun -> fear.

If having a gun regularly on you (again, one was a cop, the other a guy, with multiple young kids, who said "a gun is never more than an arm's reach away from me back home") makes you more afraid of things, that makes it seem like having the gun causally makes you more likely to shoot it.

It seemed to me that it was good example of how gun ownership might actually backfire (tho causation runs in both directions here).

I wonder to what extent their gun ownership MADE them more afraid once they were gone. They needed the crutch.

Which has bad implications:

Now, don't get me wrong: they tapped out bc one started the competition near a mother black bear with cubs, the other bc of wolves howling nearby.

I'd be out in a flash. (But then downtown Buffalo was my ruralest home.)

But still: 8 other guys heard similar sounds, didn't bail immediately.

Tonight we started watching the History Channel survivalist competition Alone (from the top: S1E1).

Interesting to me that the first two people to drop out, within 1-2 days, were the two guys most vocal abt missing the guns they always had with them back home (one a cop, other a farmer).

The slurs somehow have more agency than the Republicans.

The “NYT actually assigns agency to the people doing the thing” headline challenge remains unwon.

President Trump announces that to combat climate change he is facilitating crude oil prices going to $500/barrel.

But it is a perfect encapsulation of the idea that the GOP cannot and will not have any moral principles, but the Dems are required to play by the rulebook the GOP has shredded.

Written as if it is some High Political Principle, not naked partisanship.

The Bills should try making this argument to the NFL the next time they play the Patriots:

“They are allowed to score touchdowns only to offset the touchdowns we’ve already scored. Anything else is cheating.”

More than its dishonesty, I’m offended by that arg’s assumption that I’m an idiot.

WAIT.

I figured it out.

This war was no potential for success. So it's entirely a kinetic conflict.

But they call the boat bombings "kinetic" too--that's where I first saw it being used widely--and they aren't shooting back there.

Also, new desperate effort to avoid saying the word "war" just dropped.

"Kinetic conflict." Please.

Genuine question: what is with "kinetic"?

Is it new jargon to distinguish wars fought with guns and bombs from those fought entirely on-line?

Or is it just a sad effort to make war sound cool and sciency somehow?

Feel like I never heard it used like this, now it's just EVERYWHERE.

Every Accusation is a Confession, Great Replacement Edition.

The number of disappointing cookies I suffered thru as a kid thanks to Big Carob using this line is staggering in hindsight.

Carob does not, in any way, mimic chocolate.

Strong seconding of this. That show was amazing.

Not famous enough for there to be a gif of the chaplain saying “Amen,” so here’s the whole clip.

The N.O. jail's population limit is 1,250. It was above that throughout last year. - Verite News New Orleans New Orleans’ jail population remained well above its legally mandated cap in 2025. Is a recent decline progress—or an outlier?

Really good (and deep) piece on the on-going challenges New Orleans faces in keeping its jail population in check:

Thanks!

Those are really cool!

Straight up at the towers of CC.

Looking across CC, ground is wet, CPS towers disappearing into fog.

Closer pic across CC to CPS.

Towers across from CC, w CC’s “Jazz” sign in bottom right corner.

Ok, last few, of Columbus Circle.

Thanks!

Lincoln Center skyline in B&W.

Lincoln Center skyline in B&W.

And from my office window.

B&W pic of Lincoln Center w surrounding towers disappearing into the fog.

Heavy rains after heavy snows can produce some cool fog.

Markwayne Mullins seems like a safe choice for Trump, bc have to think his Dem colleagues will be happy to get him out of the Senate one two years into his term.

But also feel like this is pure fry-pan-to-fire. MWM has an MMA career section on his Wiki page. That’s … not great temperament.

I believe it was @johnpfaff.bsky.social who pointed out that, yes, the budget that ICE got last year was huge but the chances of them blowing it on graft and incompetence was high. A $230m ad campaign is yet another piece of evidence for that argument

Feel like was in the Levitt and Venkatesh piece. Or Venkatesh’s subsequent book. Certainly remember Levitt telling us that when I was in grad school (as he was working on this piece).

This post is outrageously unacceptable.

Hegseth has a degree from Harvard too. They shouldn’t be allowed to escape accountability as well.

C’mon, man, we know drug gangs are anything but communist. Guys at the top hoover up all the cash.

See, e.g., Levitt and Venkatesh, (2000).

That’s right. Even my sarcasm has citations.

I’d add:

If you go to school, borrow money to better yourself, struggle, and declare bankruptcy…

… student loan debt survives.

But if you’re a cop given a public trust, violate by beating up someone handcuffed, lose and a lawsuit and can’t pay damages?

Bankruptcy makes them go away.