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John Pfaff

@johnpfaff.bsky.social

Professor at Fordham Law. Prisons and criminal justice quant. I'm not contrarian, the data are. Author of Locked In. New stuff at johnfpfaff.com.

43,921 Followers  |  729 Following  |  15,365 Posts  |  Joined: 02.06.2023
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Posts by John Pfaff (@johnpfaff.bsky.social)

I’m going to make a Blue Wave prediction that the Dems win 100% of their primaries tonight.

That said, don’t sleep on the fact that the GOP will likely win 100% of theirs as well, even with Trump’s low poll numbers.

04.03.2026 01:54 β€” πŸ‘ 58    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

And if that isn’t practicalβ€”Canada may not have the stadiums, and Mexico the stabilityβ€”then Italy, Germany, Brazil? Surely some past host has the infrastructure to step up and less-horrible leaders.

It’s not a great fix! But then this is all sort of a real mess.

03.03.2026 22:51 β€” πŸ‘ 11    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

If FIFA had a spineβ€”which we know it does notβ€”it would move all World Cup games to Canada and Mexico.

We don’t deserve to host them, and foreign players and fans do not deserve to be subjected to threats from Miller’s CBP and ICE thugs.

03.03.2026 22:26 β€” πŸ‘ 105    πŸ” 22    πŸ’¬ 5    πŸ“Œ 1

I’d be extra-happy if my theoretical Dem president used your exact language when rejecting it!

03.03.2026 21:55 β€” πŸ‘ 10    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I for one have always been proud of my grandfathers’ service during Word Military Operation II.

And the generation before that in the Strategic Intervention to End All Strategic Interventions.

And of course my great-…-great grandfather’s time in the Union cavalry during the Civil Armed Response.

03.03.2026 21:53 β€” πŸ‘ 28    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

THIIIIIIIIIS.

And not just here. All over the place.

Like, I’d love a future Dem President to say β€œI’ve scoured the Constitution and can’t find a β€˜major question’ rule anywhere in it. So I’m just going to ignore that effort to arrogate power to yourself. That imbalance? Checked.”

03.03.2026 21:48 β€” πŸ‘ 256    πŸ” 60    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 1

Only need the first seven words (or eight, if you see β€œU.S.” as two words).

Rest of that message is redundant.

But I get it: this was a war of choice, and how can you plan for one of those?

03.03.2026 20:45 β€” πŸ‘ 22    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1
After an investigation following Friedmann's initial arrest, Hall said: "It was discovered that Mr. Friedmann over many months had developed and implemented an extremely deliberate and, in my opinion, evil plan. Understand, this plan went far beyond vandalism. Ultimately, it included planting various tools, weapons and security equipment throughout this facility β€” all designed to assist in a massive
escape plan." Hall went on to say that Friedmann had "planted loaded guns with additional ammunition" inside the detention center. Police say they are trying to identify three
men who can be seen interacting with Friedmann on surveillance video. "The unprecedented nature of these crimes has created the need to delay the opening of this building even further," Hall said, going on to explain that the
detention center would not open until his office was confident that it was safe and
secure. Asked whether it was possible that part or all of the detention center might need to
be torn down to ensure that safety, DCSO spokesperson Karla West tells the Scene,
"That is not something we anticipate at this time."

After an investigation following Friedmann's initial arrest, Hall said: "It was discovered that Mr. Friedmann over many months had developed and implemented an extremely deliberate and, in my opinion, evil plan. Understand, this plan went far beyond vandalism. Ultimately, it included planting various tools, weapons and security equipment throughout this facility β€” all designed to assist in a massive escape plan." Hall went on to say that Friedmann had "planted loaded guns with additional ammunition" inside the detention center. Police say they are trying to identify three men who can be seen interacting with Friedmann on surveillance video. "The unprecedented nature of these crimes has created the need to delay the opening of this building even further," Hall said, going on to explain that the detention center would not open until his office was confident that it was safe and secure. Asked whether it was possible that part or all of the detention center might need to be torn down to ensure that safety, DCSO spokesperson Karla West tells the Scene, "That is not something we anticipate at this time."

Somehow I missed the story about the anti-prison activist who just got arrested for planting LOADED GUNS (and other equipment) throughout Nashville's new jail while it was under construction.

www.nashvillescene.com/news/the-sho...

03.03.2026 20:34 β€” πŸ‘ 51    πŸ” 17    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 2

Cynically, I can’t help but wonder how much is sincere vs trying to rehab the GOP’s reputation in purplish NC in a contentious Senate election year.

03.03.2026 18:29 β€” πŸ‘ 42    πŸ” 6    πŸ’¬ 6    πŸ“Œ 1

Thom Tillis … who is not running for reelection. And don’t think that is immaterial when it comes to periodically showing flashes of a spine.

03.03.2026 18:13 β€” πŸ‘ 265    πŸ” 48    πŸ’¬ 14    πŸ“Œ 2

Stop creating new sentences that humans were never meant to have hit their eyes.

The one in this screenshot is surely a cursed phrase that opens some portal to an even-deeper hell.

03.03.2026 00:47 β€” πŸ‘ 48    πŸ” 12    πŸ’¬ 5    πŸ“Œ 0

I didn’t say they don’t. I’m literally encouraging them to fight for the gerrymander they are trying to do.

I’m saying that if SCOTUS is going to selectively strike them down, Dems should ignore that clearly unconstitutional approach.

03.03.2026 00:20 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

And every Dem w POTUS ambitions should say β€œeach unconstitutional opinion is one more person added to the bench when I win the job.”

02.03.2026 23:50 β€” πŸ‘ 89    πŸ” 22    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

SCOTUS popularity has never been lower.

This is the time to simply wrest power away from SIX MEDIOCRE LAWYERSβ€”SIX PEOPLEβ€”who have decided they get to do whatever they want.

They don’t, if we don’t let them. They have NO enforcement power besides the moral authority they chose to burn for Trump.

02.03.2026 23:49 β€” πŸ‘ 103    πŸ” 24    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

We need Democratic governors and mayors to just start saying β€œha, buddy: no” to these flagrantly misbehaving SCOTUS-ppl (I can’t even call them β€œj***ices” anymore).

Their power is solely that we don’t say that.

Take the fight to them. Stop doing their work for them, which they are banking on.

02.03.2026 23:49 β€” πŸ‘ 64    πŸ” 9    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

If this is what they are doing, then @governor.ny.gov should just say β€œmy side wins, your side loses” is not a constitutionally valid way to interpret the Constitutionβ€”bc it damn well isn’tβ€”and then say β€œso the new maps stay.”

You aren’t obligated to follow an illegal court. They just WANT you to.

02.03.2026 23:49 β€” πŸ‘ 458    πŸ” 111    πŸ’¬ 6    πŸ“Œ 1

Yeah, AEDPA is bad too. There's just only so many atrocities any one person can focus on, and mine's been much more on the PLRA, which I think gets even less attention than AEDPA (which still gets far too little), and is more directly tied to prison growth issues that are my wheelhouse.

02.03.2026 21:31 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Yeah, it's not great that it has taken on two contradictory definitions.

But to argue that the drop-as-release is the LEGALESE take is what really got me. Not that it's confusing, but that the legal profession is using it in this way a technical term.

02.03.2026 21:26 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Excellent thread and piece on underfunded indigent defense.

Gideon and Argersinger were, like many SCOTUS decrees, unfunded mandates, which states have been eager to leave underfunded.

Courts could force the issue via ineffective assistance rulings, but SCOTUS's Strickland standard is ... strict.

02.03.2026 21:01 β€” πŸ‘ 17    πŸ” 7    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1
Preview
a man with a beard wearing a crown and a helmet is standing in a dark room . Alt: a man with a beard wearing a crown and a helmet is standing in a dark room . saying you make me sad

I also want to say I'm very disappointed in you, Bluesky. I read ~100 comments to the Rupar post, and there were ZERO WH40K comments, despite an aging man of an orange hue talking abt Terra.

I don't even PLAY 40K, and I could see the reference.

I thought the nerd quotient here was MUCH higher.

02.03.2026 19:20 β€” πŸ‘ 20    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
a man with a beard wearing a crown and a helmet is standing in a dark room . Alt: a man with a beard wearing a crown and a helmet is standing in a dark room . saying you make me sad

I also want to say I'm very disappointed in you, Bluesky. I read ~100 comments to the Rupar post, and there were ZERO WH40K comments, despite an aging man of an orange hue talking abt Terra.

I don't even PLAY 40K, and I could see the reference.

I thought the nerd quotient here was MUCH higher.

02.03.2026 19:20 β€” πŸ‘ 20    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

His imperial aspirations know no limit, here or in the Void.

02.03.2026 19:12 β€” πŸ‘ 34    πŸ” 10    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 1
You can see the final drop become airborne.
Similar to the mechanism that aerosolizes toilet water when you flush.
Also how COVID and other diseases become airborne.

You can see the final drop become airborne. Similar to the mechanism that aerosolizes toilet water when you flush. Also how COVID and other diseases become airborne.

Me: Here's something to take our mind off the horrors we live in.

This website: Man, doesn't this MAKE YOU THINK OF COVID?!

It's okay to sometimes just enjoy life. Even when things are bad--actually, ESPECIALLY when they are. Getting publicly mired in constant misery is bad for everyone.

02.03.2026 16:39 β€” πŸ‘ 27    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
How small does water get? #shorts  #slowmo
YouTube video by The Slow Mo Guys How small does water get? #shorts #slowmo

So, a break from ... all this.

This could be one of the most cool, beautiful, and intriguingly soothing things I've seen in a long time.

02.03.2026 15:51 β€” πŸ‘ 92    πŸ” 38    πŸ’¬ 6    πŸ“Œ 2

I feel like no other law has such a bad ratio of "actual harm done" to "people not knowing or caring about it" than the PLRA.

02.03.2026 15:40 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

While advocates have spent YEARS screaming about the mostly-irrelevant 1994 Crime Bill, the Prison Litigation Reform Act (the law at issue here) quietly grinds away, shielding our brutal prison system from whole swathes of accountability, almost completely ignored.

02.03.2026 14:52 β€” πŸ‘ 220    πŸ” 91    πŸ’¬ 5    πŸ“Œ 1

But AFAIC recall, not one Dem POTUS candidate has said a word about the PLRA (it’s possible that Castro did back in 2020, but if he did he’s the only one).

It flies under the radar. And kill is literally lethal.

02.03.2026 14:52 β€” πŸ‘ 13    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

And on and on. Here, today: not letting poor inmates w no other options engage in common practices other plaintiffs are allowed to.

Plaintiffs who, thanks to the 13A loophole, are distinctly UNABLE to raise funds to otherwise pay.

Just brutality at every turn.

02.03.2026 14:52 β€” πŸ‘ 20    πŸ” 5    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Or the misinterpretation of obscure, poorly-written funding provisions means, now, that lawyers in these cases only get a (low) fixed % of damages.

That’s bad enough.

But it gets worse, in ways that (again) don’t lead to easy stories.

Most big cases are for INJUNCTIONS, not damages.

So fee? $0.

02.03.2026 14:52 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

When 9th Cir put entire CA prison system in receivership, they reported that overcrowdingβ€”enabled by PLRA limits on protesting bad conditionsβ€”was causing over 60 deaths deaths/yr via bad medical care.

Every death row in the US, combined? Executing fewer than that.

CA GenPop = biggest US death row.

02.03.2026 14:52 β€” πŸ‘ 8    πŸ” 5    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0