John Pfaff's Avatar

John Pfaff

@johnpfaff.bsky.social

Professor at Fordham Law. Prisons and criminal justice quant. I'm not contrarian, the data are. Author of Locked In. New stuff at johnfpfaff.com.

44,014 Followers  |  730 Following  |  15,453 Posts  |  Joined: 02.06.2023
Posts Following

Posts by John Pfaff (@johnpfaff.bsky.social)

That just got saved for future use!

09.03.2026 03:32 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

As someone quick to point out baserate fallacies, looks like the oil price jump is not one.

My usual rebuttal to β€œbiggest percent change!” is β€œyeah, but what abt the absolute change?”

Which here? Also the biggest of all time.

09.03.2026 02:42 β€” πŸ‘ 65    πŸ” 15    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Someone talking abt gas prices in 2008.

09.03.2026 02:09 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

This post has to violate some terms of service somewhere.

We at least need a content warning. If Twitter screenshots can get auto-hit w β€œclick to see,” ones w aged-based violence like this surely can too.

09.03.2026 02:07 β€” πŸ‘ 33    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

And what we do with that is a tough thing to figure out.

09.03.2026 01:01 β€” πŸ‘ 20    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 0

I don’t accept that framing myself.

But saying β€œsee how you’re inconsistent” fails, BECAUSE HE WAS NOT.

Which is, to be clear, worse.

It means we had no common ground to stand on.

That’s the false hope embedded in cries of β€œhypocrite”—that we share common values we can get back to.

We don’t.

09.03.2026 01:01 β€” πŸ‘ 32    πŸ” 5    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 0

It was a good example of how yelling β€œhypocrite!” misses the point.

His views were internally consistent.

Abortion is a crime. And one is personally responsible for the crimes one commits.

A baby is also a choice. And one is personally responsible for the baby one has.

09.03.2026 01:01 β€” πŸ‘ 16    πŸ” 5    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

I expected him to seem uncomfortable or prevaricate in some way.

He didn’t.

He leaned right in to a personal-responsibility take.

Abortion was a crime, to him. But what comes next is entirely their responsibility.

He wasn’t really pro-life. He was abortion-as-crime.

It’s a real distinction.

09.03.2026 01:01 β€” πŸ‘ 29    πŸ” 8    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

Way back in the pre-Trump days in the other place, when it was slightly less crazy and I didn’t know better, Iβ€˜d sometimes get in debates w a future-MAGA person whose work and mine intersected.

This came up once: I asked how pro-lifers could be so anti-support-for-babies.

Found his answer bracing.

09.03.2026 01:01 β€” πŸ‘ 37    πŸ” 9    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0
More of the orange clouds

More of the orange clouds

08.03.2026 23:02 β€” πŸ‘ 20    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Cotton candy colored clouds in a sky that is not dark at 7 pm.

Cotton candy colored clouds in a sky that is not dark at 7 pm.

Oh lost hour of sleep last night, you were 10000% worth it.

08.03.2026 23:02 β€” πŸ‘ 40    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Oh, not meβ€”I’m the photographer, the four pounder is my now-healthy teenager. But thank you!

08.03.2026 20:12 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Genuine question: is this the sort of thingβ€”explicitly labeling as β€œSaturday” footage that was not from Saturdayβ€”the sort of thing a functioning FCC could punish Fox for?

And if so, what is the statute of limitations for doing so?

08.03.2026 19:31 β€” πŸ‘ 60    πŸ” 11    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 2

Man, talk about a strategic failure by Nixon and Kissinger. Selling billions of our own weapons to a country we were actively at war with at the time?? I’m surprised that didn’t get more coverage then.

I can’t decide if β€œinveterate lying” or β€œmiles-deep stupidity” is worse for democracy.

08.03.2026 17:40 β€” πŸ‘ 49    πŸ” 11    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 2

It's like someone saying "I miss the NFL. I don't care about anything else, but we need to bring back football."

What do you even say to something like that?

Or is this an (sub)urban design complaint? Do these parks no longer exist in our suburbs, just in amoral cities?

08.03.2026 15:30 β€” πŸ‘ 34    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

There's a playground like that on, like, every other block here. We don't have to go back in time, just walk a few blocks.

Or does he miss it snowing in December? I think detonating oil refineries isn't going to help bring back the snow.

This one is just BONKERS.

08.03.2026 15:30 β€” πŸ‘ 56    πŸ” 5    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 1

Well, they're not four pounds anymore, but otherwise yes.

08.03.2026 05:09 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

I don't have any real point here. I just didn't expect to come across this pic tonight, and it always throws me for a loop when I do.

(It's also why I teach my 1Ls that provocation is crap doctrine, assuming that trauma steadily declines w time. This pic hurls me back 13 yrs in an instant.)

08.03.2026 05:02 β€” πŸ‘ 37    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Post image

Going thru some old pix tonight, and came across this.

It's true our medical system is a mess. But the doctors, researchers and EMT themselves?

Inside that pile of machinery is a 4 lb newborn whose insides all pointed the wrong way. 50 yrs ago? Doesn't live 2 days. But now? Thriving teenager.

08.03.2026 05:02 β€” πŸ‘ 117    πŸ” 16    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 1

(And I knew who you meant in your first version, and in fact had him in the back of my mind when I wrote that but didn’t want to get into the weeds. Plus sixty yrs ago is a different reality in politics, I think.)

08.03.2026 04:11 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Fair enough … tho within four years he was so unpopular he decided to not even bother running for reelection.

And I’d argue Vietnam is less like Iraq and Iran and more like Afghanistan: maybe a bad call, but tied to legitimate if mishandled geopolitical situations.

08.03.2026 04:10 β€” πŸ‘ 11    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

These takes are always such transparent cope bc … when have Dems ever elected someone who has launched destructive wars of choice like W in Iraq or Trump in Iran?

They haven’t. So there’s never a β€œsee, for ex …” that points to a real person.

So the problem isn’t partisanship. It’s GOP POTUS’s.

08.03.2026 04:01 β€” πŸ‘ 82    πŸ” 17    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 0

cc: all past, present, and future law students.

β€œAdversarial” and β€œasshole” are not synonyms.

08.03.2026 02:33 β€” πŸ‘ 145    πŸ” 22    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 0

(I’m not saying that’s wrong.)

07.03.2026 22:49 β€” πŸ‘ 12    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

β€œPokΓ©mon is neoliberal carceralism” might truly be Peak Bluesky.

07.03.2026 22:48 β€” πŸ‘ 33    πŸ” 7    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 1

Densest fog I ever saw was a Thanksgiving break back in college or grad school, when Buffalo got about 3 or 4 feet of snow in less than a day, only to have it hit the 50s the day after and melt it all.

Every airport from Buffalo to Syracuse shut down; had to fly out of Toronto (just north enough).

07.03.2026 18:52 β€” πŸ‘ 10    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

City just posted a dense fog advisory for tonight, as we get into the 50s, and think this is awesome news (as long as you're not flying).

Gotta think that's the last of the snow, rapidly melting and evaporating. At last.

07.03.2026 18:52 β€” πŸ‘ 7    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
07.03.2026 15:43 β€” πŸ‘ 32    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 0

OMG.

I just realized that when my wife asked me who Leopold and Loeb were, I actually gave her the story of Sacco and Venzetti.

Can’t keep my high-profile 1920s cases straight.

07.03.2026 15:42 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 1

How my mind works:

My wife just asked me if I could remember the name of those tiger performers in Vegas, and without missing a beat, and in total sincerity, I answered β€œLeopold and Loeb, right?”

(I realized my mistake right after, but then couldn’t reorient my mind to the correct answer at all.)

07.03.2026 15:36 β€” πŸ‘ 69    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 8    πŸ“Œ 0