John Pfaff

John Pfaff

@johnpfaff.bsky.social

Professor at Fordham Law. Prisons and criminal justice quant. I'm not contrarian, the data are. Author of Locked In. New stuff at johnfpfaff.com.

44,023 Followers 730 Following 15,490 Posts Joined Jun 2023
1 hour ago
MLK at a march under a banner saying “Clergymen for Fair Housing”

I mean, do these people think he went by MISTER Martin Luther King?

“CIviL rIGHtS aNd reLIgIoN Don’T MiX!”

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1 hour ago

Black Americans? The group w the HIGHEST rate of church attendance?

This isn’t just abt ignorance (tho that). This is surely a product of a diners-in-Ohio-but-not-Bed-Stuy media.

They often use “evangelical,” for ex, as a synonym for “WHITE evangelical,” erasing Black churches from the discussion.

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11 hours ago

Though the quotes here (from July 2025) are not about exactly the specific problems below, it was clear from the jump that so much of the money given to DHS and ICE would disappear in waves of incompetence, graft, and corruption.

And so they have.

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11 hours ago

Thanks! As broken wrists go, it was the best one he could have gotten (except for it being the dominant hand). Just a few weeks in a removable splint.

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11 hours ago

Ah, good point. Plus, the ONLY way I see the 25A popping up is a truly debilitating event (incapacitating stroke, coma, etc.). Which seems like it would still pay out as YES.

So the bulk of the 27% could be "incapacitating illness" + the effect you describe.

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11 hours ago

I totally get that. But my inner Chicago Economist, kept on a short leash but not fully quashed, keeps wondering why smart money doesn't flood it to fleece the idiots, which would force the prices in more rational directions.

Lack of liquidity? Too long until payoffs for $ at stake?

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11 hours ago

I'm fighting off a cold and spent half the evening in the ER with a kid with a broken wrist, so my brain's at about 10%, so not up for the math, but between the 18% and the 45%, couldn't you go long with one and short with the other, effectively gambling on the 27%?

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11 hours ago

That was the whole will-Jesus-return market issue. The market for "will Jesus return in 2027" was artificially high because there was a derivative "will the `will Jesus return in 2027' market get above 10%" market (all numbers and dates approx, b/c too lazy to find exact details).

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11 hours ago
Market Rules
Before January 20, 2029

If Donald Trump leaves office before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from The New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Information, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, and MSNBC.
If Donald Trump leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death). If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.

Yeah, and Kalshi's explanation could not be any more confusing. I had to read the comments myself to really understand it (though the lack of a clear "yes" in the second paragraph was definitely a tell).

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11 hours ago
Trump resigns by end of term at 18% on Kalshi. Trump out as President before Inauguration Day, 2029 at 45% on Kalshi.

So if Kalshi is reflecting true beliefs--and I'm DEFINITELY far more wary of manipulation in these markets vs, say, the futures market--then its markets are saying there's an 18% chance Trump resigns and a 27% chance he leaves by others means (excluding death).

That seems 25th A-heavy to me.

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14 hours ago

Yeah, it’s excellent. Ridiculous name, but great ER.

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14 hours ago

I’m sorry, but Stanford is in the ACC?

The *A* CC?!

I get the Pac-12 has collapsed, and that conferences in general are divorced from anything regional or historical, but still….

It’s literally ON the Pacific Coast. Words still have meaning!

Or is “ACC” now a wordless acronym like KFC or AARP?

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15 hours ago

*LaNgone, not Lagone. I’ve been there enough you’d think I could get it right.

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15 hours ago

(And not joking abt the Home Depot part. NYU’s hospital system is NYU Lagone, and Lagone founded HD. So it makes sense, but seeing “Home Depot Emergency Department” on things still feels a bit corporate-branding-in-Idiocracy-esque.)

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15 hours ago
Preview
a man in a wheelchair with a bandage on his head is shaking hands with another man . Alt: a man in a wheelchair with a bandage on his head is shaking hands with another man . Says all good here

Now that NYU’s emergency department is literally the “Home Depot Emergency Dept,” do they offer repeat customer deals like HD?

Because today is my third visit in less than a year for someone breaking a bone.

(Track kid broke a leg, I broke my arm, and today the skateboard kid broke a wrist.)

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16 hours ago

* I’m kidding abt the bleu cheese. Never used that stuff. If you can’t handle the heat straight up, move to Syracuse or something.

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16 hours ago

My wing credentials are impeccable. I ate so many in HS that if I got a cut I’d apply bleu cheese to the wound.*

So I have some standing to say:

This is an abomination against God and nature. It’s a war crime. It violates treaties that haven’t been written yet. It’s why aliens don’t visit us.

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18 hours ago

I’m sorry, but why does Kennedy call this site “BLUE-skee”?

Is this just part of some effort to appear like a (UVA and Oxford-educated) small-town lawyer?

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21 hours ago

"We Christians are called to do more than charity. We are called to challenge the *systems* that make charity necessary."

As my kids would say, nodding appreciatively: "bars."

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22 hours ago

The politics and international relations press as well:

“Greatest source of US soft power and global cultural influence cut by 33%” seems like a big deal too.

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1 day ago

I’ve never seen the exonerative voice applied to the ones DOING the criming before.

Is the rise of AI “agents” creating some sort of nation-wide shortage in everyone else’s agency?

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1 day ago

This also applies to Randy Fine (R—Hatesville). Whose comments from today I also won’t link to for the same reason.

Honestly, yesterday, I was puzzled by the pics of Ongles bc I thought he looked different. Turns out I was thinking of Fine.

They’re basically interchangeable hatebots.

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1 day ago

And I don’t mean this in Trump-is-incompetent way.

I mean, to a lay person like me, this seems to point to a glaring hole in the entire military infrastructure we have.

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1 day ago

I’m genuinely and legitimately not a military guy, so maybe I’m missing something.

But if we are running low on the high-quality ammo this quickly against a country as weak as Iran, doesn’t that imply we’d be absolutely unable to sustain any sort of long-run conflict w, say, China?

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1 day ago

Good to see this.

And good reminder of a cost of anti-reform DA politics.

Reform DAs have never been SOFT on crime, they just want to REALLOCATE their attention.

Towards, for ex, police violence.

It’s why Krasner and Moriarty (Mpls) have been so vocal, O’Neill (Chi) and Hochman (LA) so quiet.

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1 day ago

Part of me wants to say we need tougher anti-nepotism laws in the future, but maybe we just need to go full Janissary.

Just nip all nepo-babyism in the bud.

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1 day ago

Ok, hear me out: this is a case where I think most of us would be okay with some egregious insider trading.

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1 day ago

… who then passed everything he heard on to the Iranians.

Wonder what the soldiers and officers doing the actual fighting think when they hear that their commander in chief is checking in w someone credibly targeting them for death?

Just the most weak, manipulatable person ever to be POTUS.

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1 day ago

There are many reasons to impose age (not term!) limits on elected positions.

Senility is obv #1.

But near the top? Ensure that they will likely live long enough to be forced to see the long-run costs of dumb, dangerous actions.

And reduce any panicked desire to secure “a legacy.”

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1 day ago

Ok, this is strange and controlling.

But the end of this sentence is … perfect.

The absolutely TACKINESS of someone who convinced so many his brand was “luxury.”

“The president is particularly enamored with a pair of $145 oxfords from Florsheim that can be found in most discount shoe stores.”

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