Existential Crisis Barbie

"why are institutions continuing to fold at the same time that trump's approval numbers are going down and some methods of oppositions are proving effective" is The Question right now imo

This seems pretty clear to me! I'm not sure how you misread this!

“Medium income” 🤡

@megancnbc.bsky.social

“.. We expect another round of inventory accumulation this quarter as firms that waited to purchase holiday inventories will now have to act before those new import taxes take effect” in October.

@joebrusuelas.bsky.social

The Constitution dictates that the census is a count "all persons" conducted every "ten years." Donald Trump has no power to alter either the timing or who is counted.

basically my take on markets under Trump 2.0 admin is

The animating belief of QAnon was that an elite pedophile ring was being protected by the deep state and Donald Trump was the hero who was going to expose it all.

Which, ironically, is exactly what is happening right now. Only Trump’s not the hero, he’s the deep state.

The fact that Republicans are unfazed that Donald Trump is giving special treatment to a woman who ran this country’s most notorious pedophile ring on behalf of its most notorious serial pedophile is the latest sign of the GOP’s complete moral rot.

August 1, 2025 AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION Committee on Economic Statistics and Committee on Government Relations Statement from the American Economic Association on the Dismissal of the BLS Commissioner Leaders of the American Economic Association express their grave concern over the dismissal of the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) earlier today. The independence of the federal statistical agencies is essential to the proper functioning of a modern economy. Accurate, timely, and impartial statistics are the foundation upon which households, businesses, and policymakers make critical decisions. Undermining the independence or credibility of these agencies threatens the integrity of the information that markets, institutions, and the public rely on every day. Measuring the vast and dynamic U.S. economy in real time is inherently challenging. It is standard practice for statistical estimates to be revised as more complete and higher-quality data become available. These revisions reflect the commitment of statistical agencies to accuracy, transparency, and methodological rigor-not failure or bias. The BLS has long had a well-deserved reputation for professional excellence and nonpartisan integrity. Safeguarding this tradition is vital for the continued health of the U.S. economy and public trust in our institutions. We call upon elected officials to respect and preserve the independence of the nation's statistical infrastructure. Lawrence Katz President, American Economic Association Katharine Abraham President-Elect, American Economic Association Karen Dynan Chair, American Economic Association Committee on Economic Statistics Kenneth Troske Chair, American Economic Association Committee on Government Relations

Statement from the largest economics association about the BLS firing

As context: AEA approximately never makes such public statements

This is a big deal

AP The Associated Press @AP BREAKING: The Trump administration is pushing an initiative for millions of Americans to upload personal health data to new apps run by private tech companies. Gabrielle A. Perry, MPH @GeauxGabrielle Hi! Epidemiologist here! Don't do this. In the 80s and 90s this was done by Depts. of Health during the HIV/AIDS epidemic. "Somehow" the lists they created found their way into the hands of cops, landlords, & job sites to deny people human rights. It's partly WHY the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act exists

Just in the past few weeks:
-the president told Texas to redraw its lines in hopes of defying polls showing Republicans may lose the House
-had references to his impeachment removed from Smithsonian
-fired the statistician in charge for bad economic numbers he didn’t like

Some day we’ll have a real President again. Not a madman holding the country hostage. And yes, I am an optimist.

Under duress, Orange County mayor signs ICE addendum to ward off threat of removal from office • Florida Phoenix Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings signed an updated agreement with U.S. Immigration and Enforcement (ICE) on Friday, although he later said he did so under “protest and extreme duress.” It came days a...

“Yeah, we signed the damn thing because we really had to. We were put in a tough spot,” Demings said during a late afternoon press conference in Orlando. “I can’t let our entire board of county commissioners and myself be removed from office.” floridaphoenix.com/2025/08/01/u...

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump I was just informed that our Country’s “Jobs Numbers” are being produced by a Biden Appointee, Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, who faked the Jobs Numbers before the Election to try and boost Kamala’s chances of Victory. This is the same Bureau of Labor Statistics that overstated the Jobs Growth in March 2024 by approximately 818,000 and, then again, right before the 2024 Presidential Election, in August and September, by 112,000. These were Records — No one can be that wrong? We need accurate Jobs Numbers. I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY. She will be replaced with someone much more competent and qualified. Important numbers like this must be fair and accurate, they can’t be manipulated for political purposes. McEntarfer said there were only 73,000 Jobs added (a shock!) but, more importantly, that a major mistake was made by them, 258,000 Jobs downward, in the prior two months. Similar things happened in the first part of the year, always to the negative. The Economy is BOOMING under “TRUMP” despite a Fed that also plays games, this time with Interest Rates, where they lowered them twice, and substantially, just before the Presidential Election, I assume in the hopes of getting “Kamala” elected – How did that work out? Jerome “Too Late” Powell should also be put “out to pasture.” Thank you for your attention to this matter!

Okay you can officially get ready for an attempt to cook the books.

trump/bls

Not exactly confidence building for the future of reliable jobs data.

FLAG: Trump just directed his team to fire the Commissioner of Labor Statistics over the latest jobs numbers reports.

The Budget Lab at Yale University, a nonpartisan research center, updated its tariff tracker on Friday. It calculated that American consumers will have to contend with an average effective tariff rate of 18.3 percent, the highest since 1934. As a result, the center estimates that price increases will cost each household on average $2,400 this year. Shoe prices, for example, are expected to rise 40 percent in the short run. America’s total economic output — its gross domestic product — is estimated to shrink by about $120 billion annually in the years to come.

Nonpartisan budget lab at Yale has "calculated that American consumers will have to contend with an average effective tariff rate of 18.3 percent, the highest since 1934. As a result, the center estimates that price increases will cost each household on average $2,400 this year."

Just 73,000 jobs added in July, while May and June were revised down. It's the weakest 3-month period of job growth since COVID. If you throw out 2020, it's the weakest 3-month period since 2010 and the aftermath of the Great Recession.

“The president cut your health care so he could build himself a golden ballroom” is a pretty easy message to sell

Q2 GDP came in at a 3.0% annual rate.

There were massive timing shifts that shifted reported growth from Q1 to Q2. The much better way to look at the data is averaging the two which is a 1.2% annual rate. That is well below the pace in 2024 or the Nov 2024 forecast for 2025-H1.

Dear God, look at the jobs report revisions for May and June! This is not at all the rosy picture it looked like to economists over the past few months.

Cooper leads first public poll since jumping in North Carolina Senate race The former governor is six points up in what will be one of the most competitive Senate races in the country next year.

kind of ironic that the most popular Dems - southerners like Roy Cooper and Andy Beshear - are popular in part because they led very visible fights against school vouchers. And yet there is intense pressure to get Dems to embrace vouchers in order to *stay relevant* www.politico.com/news/2025/08...

whoops (I'd argue this is more impt than the jobs data actually)

*US ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX AT NINE-MONTH LOW OF 48; EST. 49.5

Whenever I post this graph I like to note, yes, Trumps record sucks — but don’t sleep on what a shit job George W Bush did on the economy

remember that we have an entirely predictable time bomb waiting in the jobs report when federal severance runs out this fall

Wait, the cops were trying to make sure Dershowitz didn’t misgender anyone 😭

people are still operating under the old rules and that is very dumb. the old rules do not work. they never really did. but they really dont now.

When they go low, we kick dirt in their eyes.

Worth remembering: The Constitution explicitly gives the power to set tariffs to Congress. They could stop this nonsense by the end of the day.

"Should pastors use Artificial Intelligence to help write their sermons?"- sounds urbane, philosophical, important

"Should pastors let a word guesser machine teach their flock?"- far more accurate, makes you sound stupid for even asking the question