Scott Sabol Meteorologist CBM,CCM,CDM

What's with the cool Lake Erie water? When will it start to warm? Answers on my new blog post

Http://sabolscience.blogspot.com/2025/06/-with-cool-lake-erie-water.html

What's with the cool Lake Erie water? When will it start to warm? Answers on my new blog post
Http://sabolscience.blogspot.com/2025/06/-with-cool-lake-erie-water.html

Pattern across the Eastern United States will slowly shift milder starting this weekend and into next week. Long range ensembles show central US trough by Christmas week. Will this start to migrate East in upcoming model depictions signifying another period of cold?

Here's a plot of avg temperature departures for NE Ohio December- February last 60 yrs. Y-axis is total snowfall DJF. Left on x-axis below normal temps. Right above normal temps. Above normal Ts strongly correlate to low snowfall. Relationship is more scattered with colder temps

Perception is reality. I think people use past extreme late Nov/early Dec weather events as a measuring stick for where weather should be for this time of year in Northern Ohio. Remember the average high temp is 47°. Avg snowfall 2-4" thru Nov. Cold coming is WAY below normal!

Before the lake effect begins late Friday, next system late tomorrow evening/tomorrow night. Any rain and snow accumulation would be mainly between midnight and 7:00 a.m. Thanksgiving. Rest of Thanksgiving looks much better with temperatures near 40°

Based upon a more westerly fetch starting late Friday through early next week, these are the areas that will receive the most snow. Notice no numbers on this map yet. Way too early to pinpoint with hyper local accuracy. See my previous post on the lake effect parameters

There are multiple Lake effect, snow parameters:
1. Lake water temperature/5000 ft temp difference
2. Wind direction/speed
3. Overall moisture content not related to lake (dry air can erode snow bands)
4. Larger Upper level system enhancing vertical motion/band intensification

The last time we had below normal temperatures the first half of December in northern Ohio was 2016 & 2017. Here's a snapshot of what 2016 looked like across North America.

Average Lake Erie water temperature is 54°. This is the latest we've had the average lake water temperature above 50° in the last 30 years

The last time we had a 6-day stretch between 11-24 thru 12-7 as cold as what we're going to see in Northern Ohio starting this weekend into next week was in 2010!

Another vantage point showing the cold draining Southeast into the heart of North America late this week and into the weekend

We needed the pattern to shift allowing for the cold to transfer over the pole and into central Canada. Notice the big Ridge over Alaska and the Bering Sea?

Here's the 8-day forecast through the end of next week. Although we get a break from the cold Sunday and Monday, it reloads Thanksgiving weekend. Higher probability for Lake effect snow. Stay tuned

Friday morning radar 7:30 a.m. The Northern Ohio

I was going through some old photos I took years ago. Here's one from Nicaragua. Enjoy on this cloudy and snowy evening

A large band of moderate to heavy lake effect snow is moving Southeast. Expect its arrival in Cleveland and in the western suburbs back into Lorain County between 7:30 and 8:30

General circulation across the northern hemisphere with ridge and trough positions driving the currently colder eastern US. Will this establish itself heading into early December?

Here is a look at Northern Ohio temperatures each day vs average since September 15th. Red days are above normal. Blue days have been below normal.

Can I be a guest on your new show?