Tangotiger

Jim Palmer's only no-hitter was Aug, 1969 against the A's. Jett was born Sep, 1958. So, she was 10, almost 11

Catfish was with the A's, but did not pitch that game. He joined the Yankees in 1975, the avant-garde to free agency

Just goes to show how memory works...

www.ksl.com/article/3048...

In 2025, the league average SS is a better batter than the league average 3B

As well as naturally being a better fielder, and obviously being a better baserunner

If your uber-system *requires* that the avg SS = avg 3B, you are doing it wrong

bsky.app/profile/tang...

How to too-quickly calculate WAR in *one line*:

(wOBA - 0.276) * PA * 0.08

That is it. Thatll get you 80% of way there

All the consternation is for naught

Yes, we're missing position, fielding, baserunning. And even with those holes (hello PCA), results below are decent

That depends... do you care about fielding, baserunning, and the player's position?

The Math Behind Quick WAR

tangotiger.com/index.php/si...

The greatest thing to happen to the Won-Loss concept is Paul Skenes

Lincecum brought the shovel
Felix dug the hole
deGrom put the coffin in
Skenes will bury it for all time

How to quickly calculate WAR in *one line*:

IP/18 - ER/10

That is it. Thatll get you 90% of way there

All the consternation is for naught

Quick WAR is easier to calculate than OBP, SLG, OPS or ERA!

I know dividing by 18 is not easy, but neither is dividing by 9 to get ERA

RE24, divided by Base-Out Leverage Index (boLI) is Batter Run Value

You can see a similar calculation on @baseball-reference.com , look for RE24/boLI

www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article...

... need some sort of guardrails, otherwise you might get PH in 1st inning

So to continue his idea, a qualified PH is one who relieves a batter who has already come to bat at least twice in the game. This qualified PH therefore starts with a 1-0 count

If they end up scoring, that's an unearned run

Interesting piece by @euqubud.baseballprospectus.com to turn the PH Penalty into potentially an advantage

He notes that PH face a burden at coming in cold by about 30 wOBA points, which is about 0.025 runs

One thing you can give the PH is a 1-0 count, which is worth 0.040 runs

Naturally, you...

We really spent alot of time making sure the color scheme made sense. We started with red/fastball and blue/curve, and then filled in the gaps from there

It's obviously not real... "DBacks"? Back then, it would show Diamondbacks. That really looks more like a Giants font and uniform anyway

Otherwise, I don't see anything else that is historically amiss

Using Statcast-only data: that's an average-fielding outfielder, slightly below average-fielding CF

2/2
There's also now a ballpark dimensions (ha) page that collects distances and sq ft and such into one place for easy comparison: baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/...

@fangraphs.com forecasts had top 4 pitches in WAR as:
Skubal
Skenes
Crochet
Wheeler

Current top 4 pitches in WAR are:
Skubal
Wheeler
Skenes
Crochet

Thats impressive!

For the top 9 forecasted pitchers, we get the expected distribution of a few out-of-the-park, few pretty good, and one oopsy-injury

I guess I'm the source!

I really have no idea what the subject matter is at this point

Your first sentence however is incorrect: there is of course value to giving elite batters more chances

YouTube video by MLB FULL SPEECH: Ichiro Suzuki is inducted into the Hall of Fame (and brings the laughs 🤣)! | イチロー

Ichiro speech (2:42 mark)

youtu.be/HWAsHtxuSoA?...

I would definitely rely on the x-stats, which limits us to 2016-present

I can also confirm entering the 9th inning of a perfect-thru-8 (or no hitter?), pitchers do in fact perform better in that 9th inning than their own seasonal average. This does lend the possibility of increased talent level

tangotiger.com/index.php/si...

Well, as it turns out, I already wrote about this back in 2020. I have no memory of having written this

tangotiger.com/index.php/si...

Blog Post: Run Values by Number of Prior Pitches Thrown

tangotiger.com/index.php/si...

Great idea from @sammillerbb.bsky.social about trying to steal on 0-2 and 2 outs, suggesting they should try for the steal ALOT. But as it turns out... maybe not?!?

Once you weight the pros/cons, it ends up not really working out...

pebblehunting.substack.com/p/whats-on-d...

If a pitcher starts and ends his inning, then RE24 is IDENTICAL to Runs Allowed

If you can figure that out, then great, go to the head of the class. If not, let me know and I'll walk you thru it...

WPA is a bridge stat as well. However, when we see the excitement over a game like Kurtz, clearly no one cares about the inning or score. It's just... more, more, more

RE24 (Run Expectancy by 24 base-out states) is the best stat we have bridging old school (Runs, RBI, pure context) to new school (wOBA, context-free)

You can reasonably argue RE24 is best stat for offense period

Kurtz: legendary game. Ohtani 50/50 is #1

stathead.com/tiny/ewGOW

Baseball specific:
saberseminar is the best conf in terms of baseball presentations and people interested in jobs in baseball. Literally all teams have analytics representation at sabersem.

Would recommend sabersem over mlb winter meetings for analytics job seekers tbh

Gen Just Law on X: "🚨 HOCKEY CANADA VERDICT IMMINENT A verdict is expected July 24 in the Hockey Canada trial involving former New Jersey Devils players, accused of sexual assault tied to the 2018 World Junior team scandal. This decision could reshape legal accountability in pro sports." / X 🚨 HOCKEY CANADA VERDICT IMMINENT A verdict is expected July 24 in the Hockey Canada trial involving former New Jersey Devils players, accused of sexual assault tied to the 2018 World Junior team scandal. This decision could reshape legal accountability in pro sports.

If you want the full summary of the verdict from the Hockey Canada trial, here is the 131-post thread:

x.com/genjustlaw/s...