Opinion | 6 things you probably didn’t know were in Trump’s mega-bill Trump’s budget bill includes eliminating tax on gun silencers, a garden of heroes and more.

This bill spends $3T+ to make the tax code more complex and Americans less healthy

In every regard, it is a mistake: Grows deficits but shrinks the economy, makes gun silencers more available but healthy food less so

My latest from @postopinions.bsky.social

www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Here is what the distribution of the reconciliation bill looks like including tariffs, hot off @budgetlab.bsky.social presses.

Income falls for the *bottom 80%* of households.

Full report here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/com...

IGP Rapid Response: The Fight Over the Federal Budget YouTube video by Columbia SIPA

LIVE NOW at @columbiaigp.bsky.social 🔴 @awhf.bsky.social, R. Glenn Hubbard, Jennifer Klein, @natasharsarin.bsky.social, & Richard Clarida discuss the far-reaching implications of the federal budget bill

Tune in: youtube.com/live/sxYxjDL...

@columbiasipa.bsky.social @columbiauniversity.bsky.social

Natasha Sarin on U.S.-China Trade Talks, Inflation, and Tariffs YouTube video by The Budget Lab

Great to be with Wolf Blitzer and @pamelabrowncnn.bsky.social on @cnn.com Situation Room this morning talking China and the latest inflation numbers.

Link here:

youtu.be/yQM08o-jM5Q

Natasha Sarin Click to read Natasha Sarin, a Substack publication. Launched 3 hours ago.

So fun to join @econjared today for lunch with a healthy dose of econ to talk reconciliation, interest rates, and why we should invest in -- not gut -- the IRS.

Link to our conversation here:

natashasarin32.substack.com/p/7280ed14-6...

@natasharsarin.bsky.social: Loss of insurance from GOP bill could mean more than 100,000 preventable deaths.
Some estimates based on existing research on Medicaid effects on mortality:
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Pretty sobering estimates here. Magnitudes vary but the headline conclusion does not:

Tens of thousands will die prematurely if this bill becomes law.

Opinion | Loss of insurance from GOP bill could mean more than 100,000 deaths It is hard to articulate a justification for ballooning the federal debt in service of saving fewer lives.

Loss of insurance from GOP bill could mean more than 100,000 deaths.

My latest from @postopinions.bsky.social

www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Explaining the national debt, how we got here and what it means for future generations Republicans in Congress are hashing out a new tax cut and spending bill that's projected to add trillions to the national debt. Economics correspondent Paul Solman explains the ballooning national deb...

Wonderful to join @pbsnews.org last night to talk about the risks of our high and rising national debt.

Link here:

www.pbs.org/newshour/sho...

Trump Administration Says It Is Halting Harvard’s Ability to Enroll International Students

This is unlawful, un-American, and ultimately -- like so much we've seen recently -- will serve to make this country less great

And from a President who just last year thought college grads should get green cards so we retain the brightest foreign talent

www.nytimes.com/2025/05/22/u...

Opinion | There’s nothing beautiful about this big bill - The Washington Post Republicans are haggling over the details of how much to cut Medicaid and food stamps while also trying to give bigger tax breaks to the richest Americans. Meanwhile, the rating agency Moody’s has dow...

Republicans are haggling over the details of how much to cut Medicaid and food stamps while also trying to give bigger tax breaks to the richest Americans.

@danamilbank.bsky.social, James Hohmann and @natasharsarin.bsky.social discuss whether Republicans can get this bill over the finish line:

Here are three arguments the Trump administration might try to make to revoke Harvard’s tax-exempt status, none of which should hold water in the eyes of the law, @natasharsarin.bsky.social writes: wapo.st/42ScSPt

Natasha Sarin on US-China Tariffs YouTube video by The Budget Lab

Great to be with Sara Sidner @cnn.com last night talking tariffs and @budgetlab.bsky.social new analysis of the China pause.

Watch here:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbxP...

The Fiscal Impact of DOGE’s IRS Layoffs Please join the Center for American Progress for an event featuring former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers and an expert panel on the importance of adequate funding for tax enforcement…

Join us today at 12 pm for an important conversation between @neeratanden.bsky.social and @larrysummers.bsky.social on the fiscal impact of DOGE's IRS layoffs.

Janet Holtzblatt, @jessicabriedl.bsky.social, and @natasharsarin.bsky.social will also be joining in a panel discussion:

Opinion | Trump’s attack on nonprofits has an ugly history The White House’s war on Harvard is testing the guardrails that Congress put in place after Watergate.

No, the Administration cannot legally revoke Harvard's -- or other nonprofits' -- tax-exempt status.

My latest in @postopinions.bsky.social here:

www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Opinion | The Trump administration’s tax math doesn’t add up Budget gimmicks for Congress mean higher deficits and borrowing costs for the rest of us.

"The question facing Republican lawmakers in Congress now is a math one," @natasharsarin.bsky.social writes.

"They are failing that arithmetic test." wapo.st/43izlVU

Funding the IRS to reduce tax gap has been proposed by every President since Reagan (incl Trump, in first term!)

ROI for high-end enforcement efforts is 12:1. Doing less of it costs a lot of $

Better tech will increase efficiency. But decimating the agency doesn't get you there

Before the IRA, IRS was way understaffed

As a result, the agency couldn't collect taxes owed, per Commissioner Rettig (a Trump appointee)

IRS has already lost 30% of its auditors. That's not going back to this (bad) base. It is making things much worse!

www.warren.senate.gov/imo/media/do...

POLITICO Pro: Bessent: More IRS auditors doesn't mean more revenue His comments to lawmakers come amid steep cuts in the ranks of enforcement personnel at the agency.

This is a bonker bananas statement that reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of how the IRS works and flies in the face of the vast empirical evidence that shows dollars spent on tax enforcement activities have huge returns.

subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2025...

Opinion | The Trump administration’s tax math doesn’t add up Budget gimmicks for Congress mean higher deficits and borrowing costs for the rest of us.

Tax cuts for all — paid for by none — isn’t an equation that makes much sense for the American economy.

My latest in @postopinions.bsky.social:

www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Natasha Sarin on the economic fallout of tariff policy changes YouTube video by The Budget Lab

Great to be with @cnn.com this morning on the market's latest movements, Fed independence, and @budgetlab.bsky.social's work on how political risks threaten our safe harbor status.

Link here:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=PF7-...

Re-upping this helpful explainer from @taxlawcenter.org here:

medium.com/@taxlawcente...

IRS making plans to rescind Harvard’s tax-exempt status | CNN Politics The Internal Revenue Service is making plans to rescind the tax-exempt status of Harvard University, according to two sources familiar with the matter, which would be an extraordinary step of retaliat...

The tax code has protections against exactly this: Section 7217 makes it illegal for political officials within the Executive Branch -- incl the President -- to request an audit or investigation of a particular taxpayer

Need an investigation to revoke tax exempt status.

www.cnn.com/2025/04/16/p...

President Trump has said tax filing should be so simple that you could file on a postcard!

The IRS had built something even better: a way to freely file with the govt directly rather than paying hundreds to third parties.

It's devastating to watch so much good work undone

Trump administration plans to end the IRS Direct File program for free tax filing, AP sources say The Trump administration plans to eliminate the IRS’ Direct File program. That's the electronic system for filing tax returns directly to the agency for free.

This is terrible, terrible, terrible news for the American people and the tax system.

The only winners are high-cost tax preparers.

When fully built out, Direct File would've saved taxpayers ~$20B annually.

apnews.com/article/irs-...

'Traders are like vultures': Who's raking in money during the tariff chaos As the Trump administration keeps talking about the trade deals they're going to make, American businesses and consumers are caught in the whiplash of the tariff policies. But Wall Street traders are ...

Wonderful to discuss tariffs, Tax Day, and our work @budgetlab.bsky.social with @stephruhle.bsky.social on @msnbc.com's 11th Hour last night

Also featuring the great @gilliantett.bsky.social, @jonallendc.bsky.social and @lukebroadwater.bsky.social

Link here:

www.msnbc.com/11th-hour/wa...

Exactly this, from @natasharsarin.bsky.social & former IRS commissioner Danny Werfel: "In other words, an extremely diminished IRS could unlock a race to the bottom and create an evasion advantage for those who are comfortable skirting their tax bills."
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

This team is so brilliant, and I'm so grateful to get to learn from them each day.

Also so grateful for the icon that is @marthagimbel.bsky.social!

Starting something is hard and scary. But much less so with Martha at the helm. We at @budgetlab.bsky.social are so beyond fortunate to have her.

Last April @natasharsarin.bsky.social Danny Yagan and I launched @budgetlab.bsky.social. We were excited about our team and what we were planning to produce - but absolutely could not have predicted this wild year 1/

Opinion | It’s not just tariffs. Trump is creating chaos with taxes, too. Gutting the IRS enables more people to cheat the government system.

Today is Tax Day.

And while few people enjoy paying taxes, they want a fair system. That system is in danger right now.

My latest in @postopinions.bsky.social pinions with former IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel is here:

www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...