A map showing the 1997 Conservative defences prior to the election of 1997 being called

The Conservative defences before the polls closed

The Conservative defences after the polls closed

I do have to agree with you. Given that the polling was indicating a 1997 style electoral event, you would have expected that to have been the base, and yet it appears that only Jeremy Vine was preparing for such an event with maps similar to the 1997 battleground maps

23.07.2024 05:51 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

Examples of countryside language #147: At the opening ceremony of #YSioe2024 at the Royal Welsh Showground in Powys, the speaker of the Welsh Parliament (the member for Ceredigion) joked that when she said that in 2124 there would be AI robots in the crowd, she did not mean Artifical Insemination

22.07.2024 09:26 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

The Exit Poll

04.07.2024 21:01 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

And now the exit poll, the moment in the night when everyone finds out if they have been elected or not according to the forecasts, and I have only one thing to say "Britain, prepare yourself, this is going to be an exit poll like no other!" #UKGeneralElection2024

04.07.2024 20:59 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

Ten minutes left in #UKGeneralElection2024, and in these moments of calm I believe it is a good idea to remember the poet RUDYARD KIPLING who said in his poem "IF": "If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster, And treat those two impostors just the same:...you’ll be a Man, my son!"

04.07.2024 20:52 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

Today is #GE2024 Election Day, whatever your thoughts about the parties, whether you agree with everything that has been said, or disagree with everything remember this, there are an estimated 48 million electors in this country, each of them has a vote, one vote can make all the difference. #VOTE

04.07.2024 06:04 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

The BBC Exit Poll of 1997 (Lab 47%, Con 29%, Lib Dem 18%, Others 6%)

And the change on 1992 (Lab +12%, Con -14%, Lib Dem unchanged and Others +1%)

The Conservative Battleround before the application of the exit poll

The Conservative battleground after the application of the exit poll

People of a certain vintage (most likely born before 1987) will have an understanding of what is likely to happen on Thursday, however for those of those born since 1997, the next few posts will prepare you for what is likely to happen. First this is the release of the 1997 exit poll and its effect

01.07.2024 06:23 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

A chart showing the seven day moving average of the campaign polls up until June 24th 2024 showing Labour falling on their pre election poll ratings, the Conservatives falling and Reform peaking eight days ago.

This chart shows the seven day moving average of the polls during the campaign up until June 24th and shows that just like in 1997, Labour have fallen from their pre election peak, but unsually the Conservatives have also fallen, and at the end, have Reform peaked?

29.06.2024 05:49 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

The boundary changes have turned Caithness into an SNP seat, North East Fife into an SNP seat and Westmorland into a Conservative seat. The Liberal Democrats go into this election with only eight seats

28.06.2024 11:10 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

The Liberal Democrat battleground. Defences on the left, ranked by majority, targets on the right, ranked by swing

And as well as those two parties, the Liberal Democrats will also be looking to increase the eight seats they had in the last parliament (ranked by majority on the left hand side) and their targets (ranked by swing on the right hand side)

28.06.2024 09:04 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

The 126 seats that Labour need to gain in order to win an overall majority, with their easiest targets in the top left hand corner

For Labour to win a majority of their own, not only do they have to ensure the Conservatives lose 47 seats, but win 126 extra seats for themselves, something that only happened last in 1997 when Blair gained an extra 147 seats (this time ranked by Labour swing, the easiest in the top left)

28.06.2024 09:02 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

The Conservative defence list, showing the 47 seats that the current Conservative majority is based on.

In order to win another full term in office the Conservatives cannot lose more than 47 seats, these are those seats ranked by marginalinity (how close the challenger is to the Conservatives at the last election, the most marginal bottom left, safest top right)

28.06.2024 09:00 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

And those notional calculations calculated by #Thrasher, #Rallings, #Denver and #Whyte are: 🟦Con 372 🟥Lab 200 🟨SNP 48 🟧Lib Dem 8 🟩Plaid Cymru 2 🌏Green 1 👨‍⚖️Speaker 1 with Northern Ireland parties winning the 18 seats in Northern Ireland, giving the Conservatives a majority of 94

28.06.2024 08:19 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

The new constituency map of the United Kingdom, blank, awaiting the result of the 2024 general election

In a week's time, the old notional House of Commons will be no more, having been filled with 650 new MP's. This has come around because the 650 seats at the last election have been rejigged to fit in with the new rules, therefore changes will be based on these notional calculations.

28.06.2024 08:12 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

I migrated from Twitter in December 2021 due to the new owner's policy allowing vaccine denial promotion. I've been searching for a Twitter-like platform for the upcoming UK general election, aiming to explain the possible outcomes. I believe I have found such a platform.

27.06.2024 06:31 — 👍 23    🔁 0    💬 3    📌 0