Dave Jones

Sure, I'd love to reconcile the coal electricity numbers in that analysis -- but i've been thru the source data and i can't work it out (I can't see country breakdowns by sector)... do you know where they are from and up to what timescale?

2. However... MOST of the demand growth will be met by renewables in 2026 and beyond. Solar manufacturing boom is leading to record solar deployment. Battery deployment is happening to integrate solar. Sure, coal may not peaked in India, but it won't grow a lot.

2 things to add...

1. 2026 will almost certainly see a rise in coal. Yes, 2025 electricity demand growth is low due to weather and poor industrial growth, which was why coal was able to fall.

Yes, that's what I don't understand... any thoughts, @glenpeters.bsky.social @robbieandrew.bsky.social ?

This new extra solar panel assembly capacity, utilising Chinese solar cells, has dramatically increased the global supply of solar panels🤯

China's Solar PV Export Explorer | Ember The latest solar PV export data from the world's largest exporter, China, by country or region of destination. Data updated on a monthly basis.

The solar panel and cell+wafer capacity is derived by Ember from the $value of exports, as reported by Chinese export agency.

So, a note of caution, altho we've pretty confident in the calibration for panels, and less confident for cells/wafers.

Full data here:

ember-energy.org/data/chinas-...

And the same for Lao... 2GW in a month is huge...

The surge in The Philippines is very new... maybe an assembly plant has just opened?...

Indonesia imported 3GW of cells (and 0.5GW of wafers).

These solar panels are primarily for export, to countries with Chinese tariffs. Over half the value is in assembly, so this isn't quite as disingenuous as it might appear.

It means countries with China tariffs can still import cheap panels.

India: in October alone, India imported 4GW of wafers and 5GW of cells.

That follows a huge surge in manufacturing capacity to reshore panel assembly from China. There is a huge investment happening now to increase domestic cell production to reshore that as well.

...and here for wafers...

That's because of a rise in imports in 4 countries... here for cells...

**NEW CHINA SOLAR EXPANSION STORY**

China has doubled the export of solar cells+wafers to assemble abroad in the last several months.

It still exports about the same amount of solar panels.

In October - for the first time - it exported more cell+wafers than panels 🧵

NEW OCTOBER DATA: China exported a RECORD $7 billion of EVs

China export data for ALL countries and ALL cleantech products updated for October:
ember-energy.org/data/china-c...

China's diesel trucks are shifting to electric. That could change global LNG and diesel demand China is rapidly replacing its aging diesel trucks with electric models, signaling a major shift in the world’s largest vehicle market.

"The rise of China’s electric truck sector is one of the more under-reported stories in the global energy transition" 💯

apnews.com/article/chin...

i want to live on the equator

This summer, solar has been meeting about 10% of global electricity demand😎

A quote by Greta Thunberg stating that, "The one thing we need more than hope is actoin. Once we start to act, hope is everywhere." It's in white font on a blue sky background with puffy white clouds.

Nearly every panel I spoke on this year ended with the same question: "What gives you hope?"

My friends, that question expired years ago. (If you need receipts, my book Saving Us is literally a 300-page answer.)

The real question is: How are you PRACTICING hope?

Because Greta is right ..

66% of all solar and 69%(!) of all wind installed globally this year, will be installed in China🤯🇨🇳

JOB ALERT! Help build a community of African energy expertise... 🌍

When the #ParisAgreement was signed, a huge global boom in coal was happening, threatening 4 degrees of warming.

10 years later, and coal's generation increased by the FOURTH most.

Solar #1, wind #2 💪💪💪

And here is the graphic for EV's. EV sales share in the CPS is "close" in 2050 to 2024 levels for all countries outside Europe+China.

Good thread from Dave about the new IEA "Current Policies Scenario" making a lot of the headlines.

Here is a very quick mock-up I made of what this scenario assumes for solar PV additions through to 2035, with historical context.

I'll let you decide whether this seems likely.

This is really quite scandalous... the key assumption that means rising oil demand is that EV sales share will be the same in 2050 as in 2024 in EVERY COUNTRY IN THE WORLD (except China+EU) 🤷‍♂️

Incredible that rising oil demand hinges on ZERO growth in EV sales share outside of EU+China all the way to 2050..

bsky.app/profile/did:...

NEW: Global fossil fuel use will peak before 2030 – unless 'stated policies' are abandoned

Contra some terrible news coverage, IEA World Energy Outlook shows coal near peak, oil peaking by 2030 & gas by 2035 (see chart)

What's going on? 🧵 + cool charts

www.carbonbrief.org/iea-fossil-f...

it's crazy that for oil to rise, it would mean EV's sales share does not grow outside of EU+China...

Energy Secretary Chris Wright Has His Way With The IEA Faced with a threat of loss of U.S. funding, the International Energy Agency published revised modeling scenarios for its upcoming World Energy Outlook.

Is CPS the "Current Policies Scenario" or the "Comforting Petroleum Story"? 🤔

www.forbes.com/sites/davidb...

Read Dave's eye-opening analysis of the IEA's latest energy forecast. If I didn't know better, I'd say the IEA was indulging in outrageous assumptions as a direct result of political pressure.

IT'S LAUNCH DAY FOR @iea.org #WEO TODAY!

These are the things you need to know 🧵