Expected Scoreline (xG)

Everton 0 - 3 Tottenham
Total xG: 1.74 - 1.72
Top 5 most likely results:
1. 2-2 (11.00%)
2. 1-2 (10.94%)
3. 2-1 (10.55%)
4. 1-1 (10.49%)
5. 2-3 (5.62%)
Match Probability:
Everton Win: 37.12%, Draw: 26.00%, Tottenham Win: 36.88%
The result 0-3 was the 14th most likely result (2.03%)

Wolves 2 - 3 Burnley
Total xG: 2.28 - 1.40
Top 5 most likely results:
1. 2-1 (14.31%)
2. 2-2 (10.93%)
3. 3-1 (10.52%)
4. 1-1 (8.56%)
5. 3-2 (8.03%)
Match Probability:
Wolves Win: 59.99%, Draw: 22.96%, Burnley Win: 17.04%
The result 2-3 was the 10th most likely result (3.62%)

Aston Villa 1 - 0 Manchester City
Total xG: 0.82 - 1.18
Top 5 most likely results:
1. 0-1 (15.63%)
2. 1-1 (15.07%)
3. 0-0 (11.76%)
4. 1-0 (11.34%)
5. 0-2 (9.37%)
Match Probability:
Aston Villa Win: 25.00%, Draw: 30.64%, Manchester City Win: 44.37%

Arsenal 1 - 0 Crystal Palace
Total xG: 0.95 - 0.50
Top 5 most likely results:
1. 1-0 (23.56%)
2. 0-0 (20.40%)
3. 1-1 (14.07%)
4. 0-1 (12.18%)
5. 2-0 (10.98%)
Match Probability:
Arsenal Win: 46.50%, Draw: 35.75%, Crystal Palace Win: 17.75%

Bournemouth 2 - 0 Nottingham Forest
Total xG: 0.58 - 0.37
Top 5 most likely results:
1. 0-0 (37.57%)
2. 1-0 (23.13%)
3. 0-1 (14.83%)
4. 1-1 (9.13%)
5. 2-0 (6.36%)
Match Probability:
Bournemouth Win: 33.67%, Draw: 47.12%, Nottingham Forest Win: 19.21%

If the on field decision wasn't a foul, I don't know if the VAR would have intervened. Therefore, I thought it might be interesting to fans to see how a call going either way might have changed the outcome of the game

I posted it because I don't think the Penalty foul stopped a clear chance (i.e. the Penalty being awarded was not obscuring a chance that would have had a high xG, and therefore it can make sense to make the kind of comparison of 'what if the Penalty wasn't awarded).

To answer the point you were making, it can be interesting to see how the game and probabilities change when a narrow decision goes against you. For example, the stats without the Pen indicate that Liverpool were a tad unlucky to lose.

without the ridiculous extra time at the end of the first half:
Brentford 3 - 1 Liverpool
Total xG: 2.21 - 1.74
Top 5 most likely results:
1. 2-1 (12.01%)
2. 2-2 (11.32%)
3. 3-1 (7.81%)
4. 3-2 (7.37%)
5. 1-1 (6.79%)
Match Probability:
Brentford Win: 50.26%, Draw: 23.33%, Liverpool Win: 26.41%

Without Salah:
Brentford 3 - 1 Liverpool
Total xG: 2.21 - 1.77
Top 5 most likely results:
1. 2-2 (12.75%)
2. 2-1 (12.46%)
3. 3-2 (8.30%)
4. 3-1 (8.11%)
5. 1-2 (7.21%)
Match Probability:
Brentford Win: 48.83%, Draw: 24.97%, Liverpool Win: 26.20%

Without the Penalty:
Brentford 2 - 2 Liverpool
Total xG: 1.43 - 2.35
Top 5 most likely results:
1. 1-2 (12.52%)
2. 1-3 (9.97%)
3. 2-2 (8.82%)
4. 1-1 (8.74%)
5. 2-3 (7.03%)
Match Probability:
Brentford Win: 18.75%, Draw: 21.42%, Liverpool Win: 59.83%

Brentford 3 - 2 Liverpool
Total xG: 2.21 - 2.35
Top 5 most likely results:
1. 2-2 (11.73%)
2. 2-3 (9.35%)
3. 2-1 (8.19%)
4. 3-2 (7.64%)
5. 1-2 (6.64%)
Match Probability:
Brentford Win: 35.64%, Draw: 23.85%, Liverpool Win: 40.51%

Manchester United 4 - 2 Brighton
Total xG: 1.13 - 1.07
Top 5 most likely results:
1. 1-1 (15.06%)
2. 1-0 (12.42%)
3. 0-1 (11.55%)
4. 0-0 (9.53%)
5. 2-1 (8.62%)
Match Probability:
Manchester United Win: 36.72%, Draw: 29.74%, Brighton Win: 33.54%
The result 4-2 was the 21st most likely result (0.33%)

Newcastle 2 - 1 Fulham
Total xG: 2.18 - 1.53
Top 5 most likely results:
1. 2-1 (11.44%)
2. 2-2 (9.72%)
3. 1-1 (8.74%)
4. 3-1 (8.43%)
5. 1-2 (7.43%)
Match Probability:
Newcastle Win: 53.21%, Draw: 22.93%, Fulham Win: 23.86%

Chelsea 1 - 2 Sunderland
Total xG: 0.90 - 1.31
Top 5 most likely results:
1. 0-1 (19.26%)
2. 1-1 (19.23%)
3. 0-2 (10.84%)
4. 1-2 (10.82%)
5. 2-1 (8.44%)
Match Probability:
Chelsea Win: 21.39%, Draw: 29.94%, Sunderland Win: 48.67%

Leeds 2 - 1 West Ham
Total xG: 1.53 - 0.65
Top 5 most likely results:
1. 1-0 (17.40%)
2. 2-0 (14.19%)
3. 1-1 (13.15%)
4. 2-1 (10.73%)
5. 0-0 (9.08%)
Match Probability:
Leeds Win: 60.25%, Draw: 25.57%, West Ham Win: 14.18%

West Ham 0 - 2 Brentford
Total xG: 0.38 - 2.37
Top 5 most likely results:
1. 0-2 (19.26%)
2. 0-3 (15.67%)
3. 0-1 (14.29%)
4. 0-4 (8.65%)
5. 1-2 (7.83%)
Match Probability:
West Ham Win: 3.53%, Draw: 12.04%, Brentford Win: 84.43%

Liverpool 1 - 2 Manchester United
Total xG: 2.76 - 1.26
Top 5 most likely results:
1. 3-1 (11.52%)
2. 2-1 (11.47%)
3. 3-2 (7.53%)
4. 2-2 (7.50%)
5. 3-0 (7.45%)
Match Probability:
Liverpool Win: 73.79%, Draw: 16.08%, Manchester United Win: 10.13%
The result 1-2 was the 11th most likely result (3.35%)

Tottenham 1 - 2 Aston Villa
Total xG: 0.97 - 0.37
Top 5 most likely results:
1. 1-0 (27.56%)
2. 0-0 (23.63%)
3. 2-0 (13.15%)
4. 1-1 (10.80%)
5. 0-1 (9.26%)
Match Probability:
Tottenham Win: 51.63%, Draw: 35.32%, Aston Villa Win: 13.06%
The result 1-2 was the 8th most likely result (1.82%)

Fulham 0 - 1 Arsenal
Total xG: 0.44 - 1.91
Top 5 most likely results:
1. 0-2 (19.95%)
2. 0-1 (18.29%)
3. 0-3 (12.15%)
4. 1-2 (9.38%)
5. 1-1 (8.61%)
Match Probability:
Fulham Win: 6.12%, Draw: 17.48%, Arsenal Win: 76.39%

*Model does not take into account own goals

Sunderland 2 - 0 Wolves
Total xG: 0.75 - 0.78
Top 5 most likely results:
1. 0-0 (19.35%)
2. 1-0 (17.86%)
3. 0-1 (16.46%)
4. 1-1 (15.19%)
5. 0-2 (6.21%)
Match Probability:
Sunderland Win: 31.39%, Draw: 36.56%, Wolves Win: 32.06%
The result 2-0 was the 6th most likely result (6.05%)

Manchester City 2 - 0 Everton
Total xG: 2.43 - 0.81
Top 5 most likely results:
1. 2-1 (16.05%)
2. 3-1 (13.51%)
3. 1-1 (11.27%)
4. 2-0 (9.14%)
5. 3-0 (7.69%)
Match Probability:
Manchester City Win: 76.36%, Draw: 16.71%, Everton Win: 6.92%

Crystal Palace 3 - 3 Bournemouth
Total xG: 4.28 - 2.03
Top 5 most likely results:
1. 4-2 (12.98%)
2. 5-2 (11.10%)
3. 3-2 (9.86%)
4. 6-2 (6.50%)
5. 4-1 (6.27%)
Match Probability:
Crystal Palace Win: 84.93%, Draw: 10.20%, Bournemouth Win: 4.88%
The result 3-3 was the 11th most likely result (4.24%)

Burnley 2 - 0 Leeds
Total xG: 0.45 - 1.68
Top 5 most likely results:
1. 0-1 (18.65%)
2. 0-2 (16.71%)
3. 1-1 (12.68%)
4. 1-2 (11.36%)
5. 0-0 (9.29%)
Match Probability:
Burnley Win: 7.74%, Draw: 22.81%, Leeds Win: 69.45%
The result 2-0 was the 15th most likely result (0.46%)

Brighton 2 - 1 Newcastle
Total xG: 1.03 - 1.39
Top 5 most likely results:
1. 1-1 (18.35%)
2. 1-2 (13.28%)
3. 1-0 (11.31%)
4. 0-1 (9.20%)
5. 2-1 (7.21%)
Match Probability:
Brighton Win: 26.50%, Draw: 29.66%, Newcastle Win: 43.84%

Nottingham Forest 0 - 3 Chelsea
Total xG: 2.20 - 1.67
Top 5 most likely results:
1. 2-1 (11.24%)
2. 2-2 (10.31%)
3. 3-1 (8.32%)
4. 3-2 (7.63%)
5. 1-1 (7.60%)
Match Probability:
Nottingham Forest Win: 51.13%, Draw: 23.10%, Chelsea Win: 25.77%
The result 0-3 was the 22nd most likely result (0.90%)

Brentford 0 - 1 Manchester City
Total xG: 0.70 - 0.78
Top 5 most likely results:
1. 1-0 (20.15%)
2. 1-1 (18.31%)
3. 0-0 (18.23%)
4. 0-1 (16.57%)
5. 1-2 (6.78%)
Match Probability:
Brentford Win: 29.27%, Draw: 38.03%, Manchester City Win: 32.69%

Wolves 1 - 1 Brighton
Total xG: 0.55 - 0.92
Top 5 most likely results:
1. 0-0 (20.62%)
2. 0-1 (20.43%)
3. 1-0 (14.68%)
4. 1-1 (14.54%)
5. 0-2 (9.33%)
Match Probability:
Wolves Win: 21.16%, Draw: 36.52%, Brighton Win: 42.32%

Newcastle 2 - 0 Nottingham Forest
Total xG: 3.45 - 0.24
Top 5 most likely results:
1. 3-0 (21.51%)
2. 4-0 (19.24%)
3. 2-0 (14.54%)
4. 5-0 (11.28%)
5. 3-1 (5.34%)
Match Probability:
Newcastle Win: 97.37%, Draw: 2.31%, Nottingham Forest Win: 0.33%