Alistair Kirsch-Poole

Model predictions and rankings WER round 11

Also with a bonus chart showing the accuracy in the last six weeks, which is when the model started having full data.

Model predictions and rankings MLR round 16

This week only, a bonus graph showing the accuracy in the last six weeks. The model has been a lot more accurate in the latter half of the season!

MLR playoff odds heading into round 16

Old Glory has Already Won the Red, White, and Blue Bowl

The Red, White and Blue Bowl? Old Glory has already won.

Not the pitch, of course, at least not yet. But off the pitch? It's hard to argue otherwise gloriousrugby.com/article/old-...

Top Meter Eaters: #MLR2025 - RD14!

#UtahWarriors' Jordan Trainor nears 1,000m, but a pair of @seawolves.rugby players are circling, including Duncan Matthews with a Rd-High 152m!

@oldglorydc.bsky.social are still the lone Eastern team represented, with a pair in the Top 10!
#MLRStats #MLR #Rugby

WER model predictions and rankings, round 10

MLR playoff odds, round 15

MLR model predictions and rankings, round 15

MLR model predictions and rankings, round 14

WER model predictions and rankings, round 9

WER model is back!

Onyx is dominating, but there is some real competition in the middle of the pack.

Rossouw holds his lead because Hoyland has been injured for the last few weeks!

Yep, currently in the process of of a move so I've barely had a chance to watch any rugby, but I like to keep an eye on how the matches turn out regardless

@yscrugby.com is there a reliable way to find the scores of WER matches? The website seems to take the best part of a week to get scores up, and no one seems to be posting the scores on social media.

Model predictions and rankings for MLR round 9

Model predictions and rankings for WER round 4

Top #MLR Scorers: RD7!

#OldGloryDC's Jason Robertson records a round-high 13pts to become the first player to reach 50pts in #MLR2025!

The top 3 are separated by just 3pts with two #UtahWarriors players lurking just behind, D'Angelo Leuila & Joel Hodgson!
#MLRStats #Rugby

WER predictions and rankings for round 3

Blowouts lead to big swings in the model, and that's what happened this weekend. We finally have some real predictions, with Onyx the only home team given the edge.

MLR predictions and rankings, round 8

Anthem has their best shot ever according to these numbers. Will they take this chance at a first win?

Model predictions MLR round 7

FYI, I did rejigger the model a bit to phase out previous season data earlier. I've been meaning to do it for ages, and Utah was really throwing things off.

Model predictions for WER round 2

Obviously with only one round played, these are barely predictions - the model is just going for home teams by 2 as a default. It'll get more interesting over the next few weeks, but wanted to get it start now!

MLR power rankings

Season accuracy so far for the model

Model predictions, MLR round 5

For sure, my model sees Miami as dead average, but Anthem has only two single-digit losses being counted right now

Accuracy of the model so far

Model predictions, round 3

Utah is almost certainly underrated here. Partly that's last year weighing them down, partly that's NOLA benefiting from beating up on Anthem in week 1

Dusted off the old stats model just in time for MLR to kick off!

Took a break for the weekend and internationals, but the Fact Files are back, with 1 team posted every day this week!

Today is #OldGloryDC's turn! More info on OGDC is available at the link below:
narugbydb.com/team/old-glo...
#MLRStats #MLR2025 #UpTheFlags #ScrumTogether

If only those were legal tender...