If you were trying to plunge the world into recession, you couldn’t write a better playbook: slap tariffs on everyone, then start a war that launches oil to $200.
As for MB, no, it’s not a necessity. But it’s also been quite beneficial to be connected to other regions as you grapple with drought.
Going forward, energy challenge isn’t getting any easier but you maintain a strong flexibility advantage that can be better monetized w greater connections.
Not everything need be transformative, nor does a good idea need to apply uniformly.
In terms of transmission: yes to BC/AB making a lot of sense; it’s an explicit core of SK’s strategy; the Atlantic provinces are keenly aware of the need to act as a region; the territories are connecting…
… in hours when they have too much or are inflexible?
If you’re decarbonizing heat you’re probably going to need more power for that. And expanding the grid to take advantage of more diverse resources (and some weather diversity) can help with that! :)
Ah yes, the old ‘subsidize demand in the face of supply shortages’ trick. Never fails!
Jim Cramer suggests on CNBC that Trump could “bomb Tehran into the Stone Age” until Iran reopens the strait, citing U.S. bombings of North Vietnam in the 1970s. Carl Quintanilla points out to him that Hanoi won that war.
Re-upping as interties are "so hot right now"
(not physically; that would be a bad thing...)
Great to see the momentum for this build!
macleans.ca/economy/forg...
yes and possibly
strong “I swear to god, I will turn this car around!” vibes
… stay tuned.
Working directly on the business math, as you call it. Or the practical realities lost in some studies.
Bottom line: still very optimistic. Will work on convincing you too ;)
As an IR professor, it's depressing that this is outperforming all others as the best theory of US foreign policy
Imagine the reaction in the US if ~175 schoolgirls had been killed by a targeted Iranian missile. (Or anyone's missile.)
This is an atrocity.
Israel says Iran may ask for a ceasefire. Translation: the US lit this fire with no plan and now that oil is spiking, they’re desperately hunting for an off-ramp. Classic.
Trump's decision to bomb Iran is now the greatest windfall to the Russian war effort on record. If it continues, it might save the Russian war economy.
Hedging their overall budget sensitivity to the oil price by buying puts, or selling futures, or combinations of buying puts and selling futures to create collars.
Like me around midnight when I’m super hungry, the search for TACOs has begun…
bsky.app/profile/blak...
No worries. Didn’t take that as intended towards me.
And note, the budget estimate (based on current futures) is likely *conservative* because as @nigelb.bsky.social notes, the royalty formula has the % take by govt increasing with WTI price.
Budget probably assumes around 30-35%. More likely it’s 40%.
This doesn’t take into account potential changes in the WCS-WTI basis and USDCAD. But up to now the basis had actually tightened vs assumptions (+ve to budget) and fx is pretty flat.
To give you a sense of how sensitive Alberta’s provincial budget is to global oil prices:
At the current 1-year forward strip for crude oil, Alberta’s budget would go from a $9B deficit to an **$8B SURPLUS**
Begs the question of whether AB should consider hedging these windfall gains at some point
And fill up your gas tank! (if you haven't yet bought an EV 😉)
Requires an average WTI futures closing price above $111 for the next 5 days. We are at $108 and change right now. Barring an unexpected sudden end to this pointless war, I would be shocked to *not* be above $111 for the week.
Gas tax would drop from 13->9c/L
EV tax will remain $200/yr
#berta
Premier says price jump happening too late to trigger gas tax relief: "price >$80 has to be there for 3 months"
www.msn.com/en-ca/news/c...
But regulations say it's only the avg of 20 days prior to March 16 to alter the April 1 tax rate.
Turns out, we're on the cusp of hitting the threshold.
Case in point: power prices in Alberta today. And was $0 most of yesterday. These are $/MWh, so shift the decimal one place to the left to get ¢/kWh (eg $50 = 5¢)
I suppose some countries do this, but are there many equivalents to the fixed regulated (or fixed price retail contract) that most electricity consumers are on, for a retail gasoline consumer?
Electricity isn’t without its volatility, but it’s largely masked to the consumer. Not so with gasoline.
@roryjohnston.bsky.social what do you make of WTI > Brent?
