Ben Clemens

Anytime. And for the record, that's in my own self interest. If you guys do more of these broadcasts, then I get to listen to more of these broadcasts

I'm not really sure how that question can be answered. Like, is there a way to quantify whether bunting has translated to better performance/success? Using relievers? The question is so broad that I think it's unanswerable.

Mark Simon and Ben Clemens On The Biggest Surprises in Baseball In 2025 Podcast Episode · The SIS Baseball Podcast · 09/25/2025 · 34m

New baseball podcast episode

@marksimon.bsky.social & @benclemens.bsky.social go through the biggest surprises of the 2025 MLB season

Each picks a hitter, pitcher, fielder, team and thing.

Who would you have picked?
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/m...

Yeah, it takes pitching staff and park into account

For the record, my home run model has Cal Raleigh at an 18% chance of hitting 62 or more homers, and a 7% chance of 63 or more.

If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies: Why Superhuman AI Would Kill Us All If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies: Why Superhuman AI Would Kill Us All [Yudkowsky, Eliezer, Soares, Nate] on Amazon.com. *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies: Why Superhuman AI Would Kill Us All

This book:
www.amazon.com/Anyone-Build...

I'm about a third of the way through "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies," and I highly recommend it. Plenty of my friends and coworkers are AI doomers for what I'd consider the wrong reasons, but this is a pretty compelling way of laying out some pretty compelling reasons to freak out about AI.

Ooh time to rewind

60? 62? 63???

Every so often we check in on the models

Hey @alexfast.bsky.social, I loved the Statcast broadcast today. You guys packed a ton of fun stuff in so smoothly that I kept forgetting it was Statcast-themed during the flow of play (complimentary). Amazing game, too.

Oh man the decision runs vs. power runs is a great way of putting it. Real no no no YES! energy

It's so much, you guys

Oh, you're fading Caleb Williams in fantasy football? Neat, cool, yeah, I managed to fade him in BASEBALL

FanGraphs Is Hiring! Seeking a Full-Time Prospect Writer Join the FanGraphs team!

In case you missed it, FanGraphs is hiring a full-time prospect writer.

blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-is...

I've now been there for more than seven years and have yet to have even an unpleasant work-related moment. Love working there.

My friend got me some packs of baseball cards for my birthday. This one had two real legends of the game in it:

That's the Valente Bellozo of meatballs (how great is it that the pitcher who throws the most meatballs is named Valente Bellozo?)

It has begun! Cubs starting off strong, now it's time for Caleb to do his part

Claude, bake me a cake (Claude Bakery in NYC made this great surprise birthday cake for me. You'll just have to trust me that it was prettier before I demolished it)

Yeah agreed. Perils of short formats - I couldn't fit it all in one message. Season ex the 40 games I'm looking at

I actually tried this method too before deciding on my final option. Similar results. I worried about selection bias (are players whose x-x+19 wOBA is higher than the rest of the season disproportionately just better than their non-streak wOBA's) but at least the magnitude and direction are similar

The Enigma: My Journey Through Statistical Artifacts in Pursuit of Hot Streaks I dove into the world of batter streaks, trying to predict which hitters were likely to have extreme swings in performance. In the end, the journey was more fascinating than the conclusion.

I'm not sure if this ended up being a labor of love or a boondoggle, to be honest. I spent a long time trying to learn about hot streaks but mostly ended up learning about statistical dead ends, pitfalls, and the importance of asking questions precisely:
blogs.fangraphs.com/the-enigma-m...

Are hitters strongly mean-reverting? Do pitchers 'solve' hitter changes quickly, and likewise hitters fix mechanical problems quickly? Is this just a statistical artifact? Stay tuned!

Following my long proud tradition of posting part of my research halfway through when I'm not even sure I'll finish it, here's an interesting one I'm working on right now, modeling hot streaks in hitters over 20-game spans:
P(Hot)=.181
P(Cold)=.173
P(Hot|Hot)=.089
P(Cold|Cold)=.096
P(Hot|Cold)=.259

When the bagel shop tells me they're out of everything bagels, but would I like a plain:

Find someone who loves you as much as Ben loves weird stats that shouldn't make sense but are actually quite revealing.

This is my favorite article I've written for FanGraphs in a while. I don't know how the heck Nick Pivetta is doing it, but his star turn is downright hilarious to analyze.

We had to update this because he went 4-4 last night - and then I look up today and his first at-bat was a homer. Can't keep up!

I sure hope "Somebody give me back my money please" wasn't a reference to the motivation behind the Correa trade (I know LOTS of words to that song)

Matt I'm not saying that won't be in it, but here's the first GIF I made of the Angels/Dodgers series: