Ryan Harp

New Method Could Improve U.S. Forecasting of West Nile Virus - Eos An innovative model uses regional climate data and records of West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease to outperform existing forecasts, potentially helping communities prepare.

West Nile virus can cause a potentially fatal neuroinvasive infection. Scientists are taking a regional approach to improve forecasting of the virus.

Research by @ryanharp.bsky.social @noaa.gov & colleagues from @cires.colorado.edu and #CDC in @geohealthjournal.bsky.social. eos.org/research-spo...

Evaluation of the 2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA - Parasites & Vectors Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the most common cause of mosquito-borne disease in the continental USA, with an average of ~1200 severe, neuroinvasive cases reported annually from 2005 to 2021 (ra...

For more info on the state of WNV forecasting, see our evaluation of the 2020 (doi.org/10.1186/s130...) and 2022 WNV forecasting challenges (doi.org/10.1186/s130...).

Note that this forecast is not operational but an advancement and foundation to be built on. While we were able to produce improvements at the regional scale, finer scale forecasts (county-level) are needed for decision-making.

When we use these relationships to inform our forecasts, we were able to see nationwide forecast improvements of ~22% over a benchmark forecast! This varied by region, as you can see here:

Our model also allowed for regional differences in the climate factors that informed predictions, though drought and temperature were the most common climate factors affecting WNV between regions.

Here's how monthly drought affects WNV in the upcoming season across regions (red = more WNV):

A Regionally Determined Climate‐Informed West Nile Virus Forecast Technique Aggregating county-level case data to the regional-level enhanced the signal of the spatially varying effects of climate on case counts Drought and temperature were the most common climate factor...

New paper out! We developed a new approach to West Nile virus forecasting that is the first nationwide attempt to beat a benchmark standard (by 22%!).

The key advancement was aggregating county data to regions which boosted signals that were obscured by small case counts.

doi.org/10.1029/2025...

"Health losses attributed to anthropogenic climate change," a brief communication in the journal Nature Climate Change. There's a map showing regions of the world, and pie charts of relevant studies as they apply to different health impacts like "heat-related deaths" and "maternal and child health"

🚨 NEW: Climate change is already causing 30,000 deaths per year - a global annual economic loss of $100-350B USD - but the true damage is probably 10x higher. Out TODAY in Nature Climate Change: the first systematic look at the science of "health impact attribution" 🔓 www.nature.com/articles/s41...

The National Academies are examining the body of evidence for whether greenhouse gas emissions have impacts on public health and welfare in the U.S.

A public request for information is open through 8/27 for anyone interested in contributing.

More here: www.nationalacademies.org/news/2025/08...

May as well make my first post a new job announcement:

I've begun a new position as an applied climate scientist with the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership! I'm excited to continue researching climate and health and build climate resilience in Minnesota and the Midwest! 🌎🌦️🏥