John-Henry Lembrant

The aims of Europeans for 🇺🇦 have been clear & repeated for some time. Seeing them reaffirmed again is good.

But the only thing that will make a difference: If Europe finally realizes this IS and MUST be their affairs, and they must solve it — largely on their own.

Yes, terrifying, but the truth.

When assessing the trade offs in relations with the US, remember that Trump is going to start withdrawing US forces from Europe anyway

By agreeing to the 15% plus purchases (and backing off on planned services regulation?), it is much more likely that this is a durable outcome.
Worse, the EU has effectively legitimised the actions of a US administration riding roughshod over the global trade regime.
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As was famously said about the French Revolution, it is too early to tell. And as ever we lack the counterfactual. But it is hard at the moment not to see this as among the worst possible outcomes for Europe.
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Europe spends more time speaking about and thinking of “power” than actually accruing any… we theorise it and even invent sophisticated concepts to side-step the inconvenience of its real meaning.

Fear of power.

I can’t help but scratch my head at the anti-green, deregulation rhetoric currently circulating in Germany.

Rationalising regulations, like supply chain reporting, makes sense — but halting investments is self-defeating for the West’s key clean tech hub.

Let's review a few facts.

1/4

Zelensky imposes sanctions on Chinese firms over alleged arms supplies to Russia. Affected: Beijing Aviation and Aerospace Xianghui Tech, Rui Jin Machinery, Zhongfu Shenying Carbon Fiber. These firms provide a range of dual-use goods.

www.president.gov.ua/documents/24...

what do you mean you think

Trump is imposing a 10% tariff on the Heard and McDonald Islands.

The Heard and McDonald Islands are uninhabited.

The real way Trump could have messed with the EU was to impose different tariff rates for France, Italy, Germany etc. And then watch their heads explde as they yell YOU CAN'T DO THAT WE ARE A CUSTOMS UNION and he'd be like yeah I just did.

Future of European defence White paper on the future of European defence sets out investment needs to deliver EU defence capabilities to secure Europe’s peace. Find out more.

The White Paper on EU defence is out. Of course, I read it, and I can say: if you love EU acronyms and the nitty-gritty of EU instruments and details, you will love it.

If you just want to know the key elements, better read my thread. 🧵

commission.europa.eu/topics/defen...

A brutal strike on hospital in Sumy, Ukraine.

That’s russia’s follow-up to their peace talks.

Unsung hero of the day: the anonymous Romanian police officer who, whilst taking fugitive French drug kingpin Mohamed Amra to prison in Bucharest, not only resisted his offer of a €2m crypto bribe, but reported this to the prosecutors, as reported by Romanian media, and confirmed by @radiofrance.fr.

Some thoughts on the European response to the chaos now emanating from the White House - on Ukraine and more broadly, based on chats with senior European policymakers directly or indirectly involved in formulating the bloc's response 1/

Who says EU doesn't have agency? Big news from Berlin

€500bn fund for infrastructure confirmed

And debt brake has been abolished for defence (1% of GDP needs to come from budget. Everything above that can be borrowed, no upper limit)

And this just the beginning of the European response

🇪🇺🇩🇪

The European Union remains a funny animal.

Outside observers: rich place, lots of industry, lower debt levels than US/China. Should be able to rearm quickly and cheaply if they coordinate decision-making.

Leaders on the inside: I don’t trust my neighbour so let’s bicker while the house burns down.

EU leaders fear Commission power grab on defense after Trump’s exit Tensions around defense spending will take center stage during an emergency meeting of EU leaders on Thursday.

This is inane.

If you want EU money for joint defense projects, joint decision-making is part of the deal—there’s no way around it.

If you see that as a power grab, you’re fundamentally confused about the choices on the table. www.politico.eu/article/eu-l...

EU and India aim to sign a free trade agreement by year's end The negotiations will not be easy, but India and the EU seem determined to sign a major trade agreement by the end of the year.

The negotiations will not be easy, but India and the EU seem determined to sign a major trade agreement by the end of the year.

#EuropeNews

Yes, it was a choreographed trap. Trump himself, as well as JD Vance, as well as two journalists, baited Zelensky with dishonest speaking points. They then escalated very artificially against him after he spoke back. Then they threw him out of the White House.

🇪🇺

Europeans are understandably focusing on the impact of Trump, Musk and Vance's chaotic impulses on Ukraine, NATO and the EU.

But a bigger moment of crisis related to the position of US government credibility in financial markets is looming.

#BSW is toast.

Europe’s dependence on US tech is a critical weakness In order to protect their sovereignty, the continent’s leaders must invest in a digital ecosystem independent of America

If Europe hopes to safeguard its own sovereignty and values, it must strategically decouple and dramatically lessen its dependence on US tech companies that are either seeking confrontation or are otherwise vulnerable to being weaponised by Washington ↘️https://on.ft.com/4hJDSFF

Maros Sefcovic, speaking in Washington, threatened to use the anti coercion instrument on Trump administration, via @joannasopinska.bsky.social

"The range of countermeasures is broad & can be deployed swiftly, including important export restrictions, limitations on access to the EU market and more"

And a member of the ECR, the group of Melonis Fratelli d'Italia and the Polish PiS.

For European strong support for Ukraine, it will be crucial that the ECR sides with Ukraine and the EU rather than with Trump and Putin, as Orbán is poised to do.

It’s Time for Europe to Do the Unthinkable Brussels has slavishly followed Washington for too long—and forgotten how to advance its own geopolitical interests.

How Europe's brutal situation is seen by some in Asia (by Singapore diplomat Kushore Mahbubani, known for his China-friendly views)

1. "Europe should announce its willingness to quit NATO. A Europe that is forced to spend 5% on defense doesn’t need US"

foreignpolicy.com/2025/02/18/e...

We know that European unity is our strength because all our enemies are afraid of it

Time for 🇪🇺

Noteworthy to still see unanimous agreement - thus including Hungary - of next steps in sanctions against Russia:

Instagram - Partiledarförtroende januari 2025 - Infogram

If you think that, I've got bad news for you. Reality doesn't agree with you. Not Fredriksen numbers, but not all that far off.

infogram.com/instagram-pa...