Pedro Trivin

Extensión de la negociación colectiva y subcontratación laboral: Efectos sobre los salarios y el empleo Por Ferran Elias En las últimas décadas, las empresas han fragmentado su estructura productiva: tareas antes realizadas internamente se delegan ahora a contratas, agencias o plataformas. Este fenómen...

Extensión de la negociación colectiva y subcontratación laboral: Efectos sobre los salarios y el empleo nadaesgratis.es/admin/extens... Vía @nadaesgratis.bsky.social #Economía

Hoy en @nadaesgratis.bsky.social, Ferran Elias, @joseisilva.bsky.social y @pedrotrivin.bsky.social nos explican, con evidencia causal, los efectos de extender la negociación colectiva a la subcontratación sobre salarios y empleo!

¿Qué ocurre con el consumo cuando sube el salario mínimo? Por Ignacio González, Héctor Sala y Pedro Trivín En los últimos años, el debate sobre el salario mínimo ha cobrado una renovada relevancia. En este blog se ha discutido ampliamente el papel del sal...

¿Qué ocurre con el consumo cuando sube el salario mínimo? nadaesgratis.es/admin/que-oc... Vía @nadaesgratis.bsky.social #Economía

Muchas gracias por la difusión y los comentarios @nachoalvarez.bsky.social!

Hoy @lavanguardia.com recoge los resultados de la investigación del profesor de @ecapuab.bsky.social Hector Sala, realizada junto a Ignacio González y @pedrotrivin.bsky.social:
www.lavanguardia.com/economia/202...

El documento original disponible aquí: ddd.uab.cat/repec/doc/wp...

🔗 Full paper: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/92ic8...
Feedback more than welcome!

8/8🌍 Policy Takeaway: Big MW increases can raise welfare by expanding consumption choices—not just levels—for low-income households. Spain’s case shows it’s possible without job losses or inflation.

7/8🤔 Why Non-Essentials? We model this using non-homothetic preferences: Low-wage workers, once basic needs are met, prioritize discretionary goods (e.g., leisure, gadgets).

6/8📉 Prices? Unlike some U.S. studies, we see no meaningful pass-through to prices. Real and nominal consumption effects align, suggesting firms absorbed costs or demand shifts were localized.

5/8⚖️ No Employment Trade-off: Despite fears, we find no detectable rise in unemployment post-reform. The consumption boost wasn’t offset by job losses—a win for low-wage workers’ purchasing power.

4/8🏠 Household Data Confirms: Survey results show similar trends—affected households increased spending by 4.6%, with leisure, restaurants, and furniture driving gains. No significant rise in essentials like health/education (likely due to Spain’s strong public services).

3/8💡 Key Result: The MW hike increased aggregate household consumption by 4.5%—but the gains were uneven. Spending surged on non-essentials:

Electronics: +20.2%

Leisure: +11.7%

Restaurants/hotels: +8.7%

2/8 📊 Context: Spain’s 2019 MW reform was unprecedented—raising wages by 22.3% in a low-inflation environment. Did this boost consumption? We analyze high-frequency transaction data (credit cards/POS) + household surveys to find out.

1/8 🚨 New paper alert!: "Consumption Responses to a Major Minimum Wage Increase: Evidence from Spain" (w/ @nacho2g.bsky.social & Hector Sala). We study how a historic 22.3% minimum wage (MW) rise affected household spending. Key findings below!

La brecha de género en el paro en torno al nacimiento del primer hijo Por José I. Silva Las mujeres enfrentan un coste laboral importante por ser madres, incluso en países con sistemas de bienestar consolidados. En España, ese coste se manifiesta con fuerza en el mer...

La brecha de género en el paro en torno al nacimiento del primer hijo nadaesgratis.es/admin/la-bre... Vía @nadaesgratis.bsky.social #Economía

Populism and the rule of law: The importance of institutional legacies by Andreas Kyriacou and Pedro Trivin is now available in Early View. @andreaspkyriacou.bsky.social @pedrotrivin.bsky.social ajps.org/2025/01/21/p...

Apres ski

Interesting paper just came out in the Journal of Finance:

"Working More to Pay the Mortgage: Household Debt, Interest Rates, and Family Labor Supply" by Michael Zator

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Effect of populist on rule of law over time from historical sample, divided by high vs. low rule of law nations

"Populism and the rule of law: The importance of institutional legacies"

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/share/7CZEEG...

"a persistent negative impact on the rule of law, evident even 15 years after"

"greater in countries with a weak rule of law heritage: a fall of 17.5 pp. compared to a fall of 5.8 pp"

Bottom line: Populists are most dangerous to the rule of law in societies where legal institutions are already fragile. In countries like the U.S., with stronger traditions, institutions can limit the damage—but the impact remains non-negligible. 7/7

While we don’t directly test how populists dismantle institutions, we do not observe that populists are more likely to reform the constitutions, but they are more likely to replace it in contexts with weak rule of law. 6/7

iii) Populists attack the rule of law broadly:

- Judicial independence weakens.
- Access to justice erodes.
- Corruption increases.

5/7

ii) The impact varies based on the strength of the rule of law before populists take office. Populist governments have a stronger effect in contexts with weaker rule of law traditions. 4/7

Empirically, we use Synthetic Control Methods to analyze a cross-country sample including 51 populist events, we find that: i) Populist governments cause a substantial and persistent decline in the rule of law—an 11.4 percentage-point drop after 15 years. 3/7

Core Idea: Populists’ ability to undermine the rule of law depends on a country’s institutional legacies and societal norms. When respect for the law is ingrained as expected behavior, populists face stronger resistance—and institutions hold up better. 2/7

American Journal of Political Science | MPSA Journal | Wiley Online Library Existing work sees populist governments undermining the rule of law because they seek to dismantle institutional constraints on their personalistic plebiscitarian rule. We argue that populist rulers ...

Thrilled to kick off my Bluesky account by sharing that our paper, "Populism and the Rule of Law: The Importance of Institutional Legacies" (with @andreaspkyriacou.bsky.social ), is now published in the AJPS (@ajpseditor.bsky.social)! Here’s what we found. 👇 onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

Hola Santiago, me podrías añadir a la lista. Gracias!