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Aaron

@aaronwarburton.bsky.social

Sports Data Analyst & Storyteller | Crafting unique, data-driven sports content for PR, Media & Brands

36 Followers  |  57 Following  |  147 Posts  |  Joined: 13.11.2024  |  1.7347

Latest posts by aaronwarburton.bsky.social on Bluesky

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Gameweek rank of 15,198

And thats back to back to back +100-point gameweeks!

23.02.2025 18:34 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Thanks Glasner!

Very good start to the FPL weekend

22.02.2025 21:30 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Small Update before Night 3 tomorrow!

I'll post a thread tomorrow with more details about the points needed for the playoffs!

19.02.2025 23:54 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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If you have not already, check out my FREE newsletter 'The Oche Index'

Darts stats, tournament projections, and analysis to prepare you for every Major event! This includes an analysis of the Premier League every week!

HERE - theocheindex.beehiiv.com/subscribe

18.02.2025 23:52 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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If you have not already, check out my FREE newsletter 'The Matchday Digest'

Premier League stats, projections, and analysis to keep you ahead of the game every matchday. Plus get updates on my future projects!

HERE - thematchdaydigest.beehiiv.com/

17.02.2025 23:51 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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A green arrow so far!

Very lucky with the Trent clean sheet...

16.02.2025 22:48 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Decent start to GW25

15.02.2025 23:45 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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24 points is now most likely once again!

With a more balanced and competitive field, we could expect this to keep dropping as the tournament progresses. How many points do you think will be needed for playoffs?

14.02.2025 14:07 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Points needed for playoffs comes down slightly to 24.7

14.02.2025 14:07 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Luke Littler is now expected to have 4.3 Nightly Wins...

Could he get 5 wins and break the record?

14.02.2025 14:07 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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UPDATED Premier League Darts Before Night 2! 🎯

🧡Thread includes, Player Projections and Points likely for Playoffs!

14.02.2025 14:07 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Still looks like 25 points needed for playoffs!

13.02.2025 18:48 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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UPDATED Premier League Darts Before Night 2! 🎯

13.02.2025 18:48 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Small red arrow for me! Time to start rolling my transfers to cover the GW29 blank!

12.02.2025 23:27 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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FA Cup Update after 5th Round Draw, Man City clear favourites now.

10.02.2025 23:07 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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If you have not already, check out my FREE newsletter 'The Oche Index'

Darts stats, tournament projections, and analysis to prepare you for every Major event! This includes an analysis of the Premier League every week!

HERE - theocheindex.beehiiv.com/subscribe

09.02.2025 23:37 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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If you have not already, check out my FREE newsletter 'The Matchday Digest'

Premier League stats, projections, and analysis to keep you ahead of the game every matchday. Plus special case studies on the FA Cup or my Models projections each week.

HERE - thematchdaydigest.beehiiv.com/

08.02.2025 20:35 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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UPDATED Premier League Darts After Night 1! 🎯

08.02.2025 00:19 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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If you liked this content and want to see more of my breakdown, check out my FREE darts Newsletter 'The Oche Index', covering all the big events and each night of this year's Premier League!

FREE here - theocheindex.beehiiv.com/

06.02.2025 15:22 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Finally we can take this one step further to show the points distribution of how many points the player in 4th finished on.

So its currently
25, 18.8% of the time
24, 17.4% of the time
26, 15.8% of the time

06.02.2025 15:22 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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The big question is, how many points will be needed for playoffs?

Position 4, currently is averaging 24.9 +/- 2.2 points.

So rounding up we can say it currently looks to be 25 points...

06.02.2025 15:22 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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This shows each player's average points in the league phase and the standard deviation (+/- bit)

Therefore we can see the bottom 5% and top 95% points achieved by each player. Also is the average nightly wins...

06.02.2025 15:22 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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UPDATED Premier League Darts Graphic! 🎯

The one yesterday was not how I wanted it so made a different version!

Follow this thread to see each player's point probabilities and the breakdown of the points needed for 4th! 🧡

06.02.2025 15:22 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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First look at my Premier League Darts Model! 🎯

Displaying each player's position probabilities, playoff chance, and average points.

The average points achieved by position 4 was 24.8...

Further analysis tomorrow on my FREE darts newsletter -
theocheindex.beehiiv.com/

05.02.2025 22:13 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Darts Premier League Model should be ready for tomorrow!

How many points will be needed for playoffs this year?

04.02.2025 23:41 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Updated look at my model's 10,000 simulations of the PDC World Masters after the Quarter-Finals! 🎯 Who do you think will win?



πŸ†Champion %
πŸ₯ΆHumphries - 49.4%
🏴󠁧󠁒󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿Clayton - 27.7%
πŸ‡³πŸ‡±Noppert - 14.8%
πŸ‡§πŸ‡ͺVDB - 8.0%

02.02.2025 18:00 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Updated look at my model's 10,000 simulations of the PDC World Masters after the Second Round, probabilities will be updated during the event! 🎯



πŸ†Champion %
☒️Littler - 43.5%
πŸ₯ΆHumphries - 19.2%
πŸ”«Bunting - 15.6%
πŸ‡¦πŸ‡Ί Heta - 6.4%

01.02.2025 23:02 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Updated look at my model's 10,000 simulations of the PDC World Masters after the first round, probabilities will be updated during the event! 🎯



πŸ†Champion %
☒️Littler - 31.5%
πŸ₯ΆHumphries - 15.4%
🟒MvG - 13.6%
πŸ”«Bunting - 12.5%

31.01.2025 23:37 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Here is a first look at my model's 10,000 simulations of the PDC World Masters starting today, probabilities will be updated during the event! 🎯

πŸ†Champion %
☒️Littler - 26.9%
πŸ₯ΆHumphries - 13.4%
πŸ”«Bunting - 10.9%
🟒MvG - 10.8%

30.01.2025 09:24 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Manchester City vs Real Madrid or Bayern Munich in the Knockout Phase!

29.01.2025 23:20 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

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