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Anthony Reinhard

@statbutler.com.bsky.social

Football Analytics | Data Viz

749 Followers  |  98 Following  |  129 Posts  |  Joined: 18.10.2023  |  1.8604

Latest posts by statbutler.com on Bluesky

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02.08.2025 14:45 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Starting next week I’m going to be posting these graphs for every preseason game on statbutler dot com!

02.08.2025 14:43 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Elite data viz and unique research.

Some preseason notes:
+ 21 teams played their Week 1 starters for less than 5% of snaps in Preseason Week 3
+ No team used their Week 1 starters for more than 35% of snaps in any preseason game last year
+ It’s about Pre Week 1&2 now

31.07.2025 13:51 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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A Brief Guide to Preseason Playing Time A look at how teams have changed their preseason strategy and abandoned the "dress rehersal"

More on approaches by team and when starters/backups/practice squaders enter & exit: open.substack.com/pub/anthonyr...

31.07.2025 12:55 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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New on statbutler dot com: the third week of the preseason is no longer the "dress rehearsal" week.

More below!

31.07.2025 12:55 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1
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Martin Emerson had 15 passes defended in 2022, tied for the sixth most in rookie seasons over the last five years.

(Via @stathead.com @pro-football-reference.com)

30.07.2025 14:24 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

My model has 8 WRs in the top 53 by probability, so I personally don’t expect that either. Mike is the expert, so I wouldn’t bet against him!

26.07.2025 16:08 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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32 53s: Anthony vs ESPN I compare my pre-training camp 53-man roster projections to ESPN's 32 NFL Nation writers

Read about it: open.substack.com/pub/anthonyr...

26.07.2025 15:18 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1
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ESPN's 32 NFL Nation writers published their 53-man roster projections on Monday. My model disagreed with them 147 times. Here is who I have in my model's top 53 vs who the folks at ESPN went with:

26.07.2025 15:17 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Pleased to announce that I've joined the brand ambassador program at @pro-football-reference.com! Looking forward to sharing fun stuff from them through this season and beyond!

26.07.2025 13:23 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Salary Cap: The Rising Tide of non-QB Contracts T.J. Watt inked the largest non-QB contract in NFL history last week

I wrote a bit about this graph yesterday! Subscribe (for free!) and you can check out my work earlier open.substack.com/pub/anthonyr...

23.07.2025 13:46 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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T.J. Watt became the fourth player this offseason to sign a market setting non-QB contract

Data: OverTheCap

23.07.2025 13:43 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Salary Cap: The Rising Tide of non-QB Contracts T.J. Watt inked the largest non-QB contract in NFL history last week

open.substack.com/pub/anthonyr...

22.07.2025 12:35 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Made a graph + some commentary about the recent spate of market-setting non-QB contracts

22.07.2025 12:35 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Have gotten that feedback a few times now!

19.07.2025 13:42 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

On Elkin, all UDFAs get a 3y contract to start with. Daly was brought back with a $167,500 signing bonus in free agency. Specialists are hard, but I think I agree with the model in this case.

17.07.2025 15:26 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Carlson is getting a boost (probably wrongly) from signing to the active roster and then immediately getting placed on IR for the rest of the year. Wilson though has never made a roster and hasn’t even been able to stick on a practice squad. Hard to see where Wilson has a shot imo.

17.07.2025 15:26 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0
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The Stat Butler | Anthony Reinhard | Substack Serving up analytics, data visualizations, and musings related to building football teams. Click to read The Stat Butler, by Anthony Reinhard, a Substack publication with hundreds of subscribers.

All 32 teams now available: www.statbutler.com/t/53-man-ros...

17.07.2025 13:59 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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32 53s: NFC East Pre-Training Camp 53-man Roster Projection My initial roster projections for the Cowboys, Giants, Eagles, and Commanders

open.substack.com/pub/anthonyr...

17.07.2025 13:57 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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I published my final group of 53-man projections this morning! Check out the NFC East in the post below

17.07.2025 13:57 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0
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32 53s: NFC South Pre-Training Camp 53-man Roster Projection My initial roster projections for the Panthers, Saints, Bucs, and Falcons

open.substack.com/pub/anthonyr...

16.07.2025 20:39 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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My roster projections for the NFC South are now up.

16.07.2025 20:39 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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32 53s: NFC North Pre-Training Camp 53-man Roster Projection My initial roster projections for the Vikings, Packers, Lions, and Bears

open.substack.com/pub/anthonyr...

16.07.2025 14:41 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Another set of 53-man roster projections are now available. Link below.

16.07.2025 14:41 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0
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32 53s: NFC West Pre-Training Camp 53-man Roster Projection My initial roster projections for the Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, and Cardinals

www.statbutler.com/p/32-53s-nfc...

16.07.2025 02:02 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Just posted my initial 53-man roster predictions for the NFC West! Link below.

16.07.2025 02:02 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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32 53s: AFC West Pre-Training Camp 53-man Roster Projection My initial roster projections for Denver, Kansas City, Vegas, and the L.A. Chargers

www.statbutler.com/p/32-53s-afc...

14.07.2025 23:43 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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My 53-man roster projections for the AFC west are now live! See next post for more!

14.07.2025 23:42 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Very popular question on the other site as well. Biggest reason (vs most folks expectation) is that it doesn’t know anything about Mitchell’s 2023 season. Another is Ali being a draft pick vs Mitchell UDFA. Mitchell missed more time due to injury as well, which my current model doesn’t like

14.07.2025 17:45 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Also the matter of the Browns reported insurance on his contract. Supposedly the Browns can claw back some cap space due to his achilles injury, but I'd bet he needs to be on the roster during that injury for the claim to hold up.

14.07.2025 16:50 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

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